Arguably the only non-problem

I really don't think Granderson in center is a problem.

Kottaras to the Yanks couldn't be more obvious.

DH- ??? (You get free offense out of this position, so to speak, and the Yankees don’t even have it filled yet).

I think that with this team that's a feature rather than a bug. They have a bunch of guys who are old, and a bit gimpy, and/or recovering from surgery who will likely need time away from the field A full-time DH just means fewer PAs for the other starters. And if things go really well then either Youkilis or A-Rod is the full-time DH starting in July. Problem solved.

If every player has his worst season and the team makes no moves in response, they will be terrible!

Kottaras to the Yanks couldn't be more obvious.

For semi-obvious reasons, for once as a Red Sox fan I haven't been following the Yankees offseason all that closely. I was surprised to see that apparently their current plan at catcher is either Chris Stewart or Francisco Cervelli.

If every player has his worst season and the team makes no moves in response, they will be terrible!

Brett Gardner can't hit for power, and Mark Teixeira doesn't steal enough bases!

Unless they are holding onto him dearly, I really think the Yanks should try to pry Suzuki away from Washington. Isn't a world beater by any means, but he's gotta be a step above what they currently have planned, right?

Also, agree that Kottaras makes sense as well.

Hell, while we're at it....Ramon Hernandez still around?

If Cervelli can just match his MLB offense to date (88 wRC+) and play average D, he's a 2 WAR catcher.

I'd also add Kottaras. Stewart is useless.

Unless they are holding onto him dearly, I really think the Yanks should try to pry Suzuki away from Washington. Isn't a world beater by any means, but he's gotta be a step above what they currently have planned, right?

Also, agree that Kottaras makes sense as well.

Hell, while we're at it....Ramon Hernandez still around?

Terry Steinbach? Joe Rudi?

If Cervelli can just match his MLB offense to date (88 wRC+) and play average D, he's a 2 WAR catcher.

That seems unlikely to me. Yeah, he's done OK in the MLB in a small sample size, but that's out of line with his minors perfomance, he didn't have many MLB at bats last season and he OPSed .657 in AAA last season.

Kottaras to the Yanks couldn't be more obvious.

And make it impossible to root for the one player in MLB from my home town? You, sir are a villain!

That seems unlikely to me. Yeah, he's done OK in the MLB in a small sample size, but that's out of line with his minors perfomance

His bad minor league numbers are just as much a SSS. Through 2008, Cervelli raked in the minors ~130 wRC+ in about 600 PA. Since then he's had 580 mediocre minor league PAs across three seasons (mostly AAA) ~90 wRC+, and 562 MLB PAs with a 88 wRC+.

I don't think we know what Cervelli is.

he OPSed .657 in AAA last season.

You can make of this whatever you like, but I'm dubious of the Triple-A numbers for the Yankees last season, since they were doing that goofy thing where they had no real home ballpark and played their "home" games in something like four different parks.

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

(Cue response: "You make it sound as if this were a bad thing.")

This has been a miserable, do-nothing off season for Cashman. He didn't even make an offer for Pierzynski, hasn't found a right-handed hitting outfielder, hasn't found a DH, couldn't swing a deal for Morse, and has basically failed to upgrade the roster in any tangible way. And then he comes out last week and says he's prepared to go to spring training with what he has.

The Yankees' pitching could be pretty good, and it's a little early to suggest no one will play better than last year. I'm pretty confident the Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox, although that won't mean as much as it used to. However, that is not to say they couldn't win the division. Other teams have problems, too.

This has been a miserable, do-nothing off season for Cashman. He didn't even make an offer for Pierzynski, hasn't found a right-handed hitting outfielder, hasn't found a DH, couldn't swing a deal for Morse, and has basically failed to upgrade the roster in any tangible way. And then he comes out last week and says he's prepared to go to spring training with what he has.

Cashman was given an explicit directive to cut $30-40M off the payroll by 2014. Given those constraints, I think he's done a pretty solid job.

Bolshevik Bud has done a fine job bribing the Yankees with their own money.

Cashman was given an explicit directive to cut $30-40M off the payroll by 2014. Given those constraints, I think he's done a pretty solid job.

Even given those constraints, you'd think he would've made an offer to Pierzynski though rather than going with Cervelli/Stewart. Pierzynski seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees and their current situation, available on a one year deal for reasonable money with no long-term commitment.

Even given those constraints, you'd think he would've made an offer to Pierzynski though rather than going with Cervelli/Stewart.

Austin Romine is in the mix, too.

Pierzynski seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees and their current situation, available on a one year deal for reasonable money with no long-term commitment.

Fair point. What happened there?

You know who'd make a good DH for the Yankees?

Alfonso Soriano.

His bad minor league numbers are just as much a SSS. Through 2008, Cervelli raked in the minors ~130 wRC+ in about 600 PA. Since then he's had 580 mediocre minor league PAs across three seasons (mostly AAA) ~90 wRC+, and 562 MLB PAs with a 88 wRC+.

I don't think we know what Cervelli is.

What he did in 2008 and before is pretty irrelevant. His poor performance in AAA tells us that he's likely worse than what he's shown thus far in the majors.

It's always tough to project backup catchers with limited playing time, but Cervelli's 900 PA over the past 3 years are a strong indication that he's worse than the average catcher.

Pierzynski seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees and their current situation, available on a one year deal for reasonable money with no long-term commitment.

Fair point. What happened there?

It would have cost at least $8M to top the Texas offer, and Pierzynski's bWAR over the past 5 years is pretty underwhelming other than his fluky 2012. Cashman probably figured that a 36 year old Pierzynski was unlikely to be materially better than Cervelli+whoever, or at least not $8M better. If money's no object I'd rather have Pierzynski, but apparently money is a very big object right now with the Yanks.

Through 2008, Cervelli raked in the minors ~130 wRC+ in about 600 PA.

With less than 100 of those PA above the Florida State League. Come on.

If money's no object I'd rather have Pierzynski, but apparently money is a very big object right now with the Yanks.

I was under the impression that 2014 money is a very big object, but 2013 money is pretty much normal Yankee money. And unless they're projecting Cervelli based on his big OBP numbers against college draftees in the New York Penn League, Pierzynski should rate as a very solid improvement over what they've got on the 40-man.

But if the Yankees are pinching money for 2013 as well, then yeah, I can see the logic.

You know who'd make a good DH for the Yankees?

Alfonso Soriano.

I haven't heard whether he's available...

It's always tough to project backup catchers with limited playing time, but Cervelli's 900 PA over the past 3 years are a strong indication that he's worse than the average catcher.

But ... but ... it's Frankie Brains!!!

He's the plug that sparked the run to 27 in 2009!

Actually, I don't care much either way, though I'd much rather he get a chance over someone like Chris Stewart ...

Jason Kendall anyone?

According to BBref.com, Cervelli had 15 PBs in 96 games in AAA last year. Forget hitting like he has (which I think is highly unlikely), I sincerely doubt he's capable of being an average defensive catcher either. The last time Cervelli got extended time in the Majors, he looked dreadful behind the plate, which was notable considering how good he looked his first time up.

And on top of all the hitting and defensive questions (other than offense and defense, how good is he?), something that's been kind of danced around in this thread, is that he is absolutely incapable of staying healthy for a season. He's topped 90 games played twice (or 88 three times!), and topped out at 102. Some of that is usage, but he's been hurt every time the Yanks have had him with the Major League club.

I think the Yanks are looking hard at Chris Stewart because Cervelli is a horrible bet going forward.

The funny thing is that the Red Sox have a passable LHB catcher on a one-year deal that they'd like to trade. But I doubt they want to let the Yankees have him.

The funny thing is that the Red Sox have a passable LHB catcher on a one-year deal that they'd like to trade. But I doubt they want to let the Yankees have him.

And the best way to ensure he stays out of the Yankees' hands is to hold on to him until after the Yankees fill the position with someone better. Maybe that's why he hasn't been traded yet.

EDIT: That is to say, the only way they can prevent a trading partner from flipping him to the Yankees.

I don't think we know what Cervelli is.

Well one slight problem here is that the one biggest known quality of Cervelli is that he'll play super hard but isn't built like a rock, which means he's going to get hurt on a rather high probabilty and alot of those injury may have permenantly reduced his ability anyway.

I'm pretty confident the Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox

Geez, if that's how high you are setting the bar, you will be in for a very disappointing season. And yeah, I'm a Red Sox fan...

In a few weeks, after the bulk of the season tickets are sold, the Twins will ship the Yankees Mauer. I'll hate seeing it, but it's inevitable.

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Keith Law thinks they didn't contend last year.

Between defections, injuries, lack of farm replacements and general expectations of aging, I've never seen a previously good Yankee roster decline so precipitously in quality over the course of a single offseason as it has since October. Bottom line is that the Yanks and the Red Sox will likely fight it out for 4th in the ALE this year, with the Red Sox likely winners. There's actually a decent chance that they'll see a drop in productivity from every last position in the starting lineup, and every spot in the rotation and bullpen. Only the law of averages makes it unlikely.

IT's possible, the division is tough but geez, the Yankees have been to 3 of the last 4 ALCS including last year. I know, I know, 1965, but that's the exception, not the rule. Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

Let's just say that I think the Yankees have met them well over half way. Even assuming no precipitous production drops among returning 2012 regulars, what have the Yankees done to replace the production they got from Swisher, A-Rod, Jeter, and Soriano?

And add to that the fact that of the returning regulars, Gardner is coming off a season-long injury; Teixeira's production has declined every year since he arrived in New York; and Granderson's 2011 career year looks more like a outlier in retrospect, as his K/W ratio increased by 30%. Only Cano is both relatively young and still at his peak of productivity.

Against that, the only upsides are the ones that may or may not come from the returning cripples: Gardner, A-Rod, Jeter, Mo and Pineda. I'll believe that productivity when I see it.

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Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Maybe or maybe not, since the Rays always loaded, and the Jays acquired what seems like every available premier free agent. But the Orioles fought the 2012 Yankees to a virtual standstill, and they haven't even remotely suffered the degree of offseason losses that the Yanks have.

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox. The only real question is whether or not this ongoing payroll purge is actually going to pay off dividends when the luxury tax is suspended.

Also, we're not really pretending the Orioles are going to be contending for the division title again this year, are we?

Eh, they're a .475 team in a division of .525 teams. They're not the most likely division contenders, but they should project to a non-crazy shot at winning the east.

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox.

That's crazy talk. You can't even imagine the Yankees winning 92 games? It's entirely clear how that happens - they just need everyone to play up to their projections in rate stats, plus good health from most of the 30-somethings.

No one in the AL East is particularly good. Anyone could win it. The Blue Jays are probably the best by a slim margin, and the Orioles the worst by a reasonable margin, but there's just not enough talent separation to exclude anything.

There is not a single possible one-through-five arrangement of the 2013 AL East that would surprise me in the least way.

If every player has his worst season and the team makes no moves in response, they will be terrible!

seems like every year there's a bunch of 'the yankees will stink, end of the dynasty' articles.

that said, the picture with the article is weird. ichiro looks like some old guy who accidentally came in through the players locker room, put on a uniform, and wandered out on the field.

Eh, they're a .475 team in a division of .525 teams. They're not the most likely division contenders, but they should project to a non-crazy shot at winning the east.

I don't disagree with you. I would just phrase it this way: of the various scenarios, the Orioles finishing in 1st would be the one that would surprise me the most.

Do you really believe the Red Sox have made up 26 games on the Yankees this off-season?

Drop Bobby Valentine: +50 games

Gain John Farrell: +10 games
...as manager: -15 games

Drop Adrian Gonzalez's projection: -10 games
Drop the gap between his projection and his reality: +15 games

Older: -10 games
Sexier: +3 games

Swap Matsuzaka for Lackey: +12 games
Dempster: +0 games

Stephen Drew: +5 games
Mike Napoli: -2 hips (at 5 games per hip)

Harder competition from Blue Jays improved roster: -5 games
...and their not being managed by Farrell: -12 games

The latest Proven Closer: -7 games

Total: +26 games. Count on it.

Yankee fans and Red Sox fans, each arguing their team is worse. We are a long, long way from 2003-04 here, people.

Also, I think the Yankees probably miss out of the playoffs this year, but among certain branches of the fandom--including many posting in this thread--it's excessively doom-and-gloom because of how terrible they looked, at times, down the stretch last year. (And of course, being swept in the ALCS doesn't help much.)

Bottom line is that I can't see the Yankees beating out any team other than (maybe) the Red Sox.

That's crazy talk. You can't even imagine the Yankees winning 92 games? It's entirely clear how that happens - they just need everyone to play up to their projections in rate stats, plus good health from most of the 30-somethings.

And what are the current rate stat projections for the C, 3B, SS, LF and RF positions that are likely to open the season, even if Jeter is in the lineup?

No one in the AL East is particularly good. Anyone could win it. The Blue Jays are probably the best by a slim margin, and the Orioles the worst by a reasonable margin, but there's just not enough talent separation to exclude anything.

IOW a relatively young team that's kept its roster intact and played at a .623 pace over the second half of the season is "worst by a reasonable margin"? While an aging team that's going to have to replace four of their starting positions (and so far has come up with Kevin Youkilis for A-Rod and Ichiro for Swisher) could win 92 games? That sounds an objective pipe that've been stuffed with a combination of opium, wishful thinking and reverse psychology.

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Yankee fans and Red Sox fans, each arguing their team is worse. We are a long, long way from 2003-04 here, people.

Also, I think the Yankees probably miss out of the playoffs this year, but among certain branches of the fandom--including many posting in this thread--it's excessively doom-and-gloom because of how terrible they looked, at times, down the stretch last year. (And of course, being swept in the ALCS doesn't help much.)

That's about 5% of it. The other 95% of it is just the result of looking at the current active roster and the projected opening day lineup, and not trying to let wishful thinking get in the way.

But yes, IF A-Rod's surgery holds for more than a month or two upon his return; and IF Jeter can return to his 2012 form at age 38/39 after major surgery; and IF Gardner doesn't become the reincarnation of Nick Johnson; and IF Ichiro can show that his last two months were more indicative of what's to come than the two years before that; and IF Granderson and Teixeira can reverse their production declines; and IF Mo comes back at the age of 43 to replace Soriano's 2012 effectiveness; and IF Hughes can finally have a breakthrough year; and IF Cano, Sabathia and Kuroda can keep it up; and IF Joba can take up video games and stay off trampoulines; and IF Pineda can recover from last year's injury, stay in shape, and achieve his vaunted potential; then sure, all my forebodings will magically disappear.

I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that the Yanks will finish any higher than 4th. They're going to need all the Aura and Mystique in the vault to get through this season.

IOW a relatively young team that's kept its roster intact and played at a .623 pace over the second half of the season is "worst by a reasonable margin"?

Yes, the club which allowed about as many runs as it scored and featured more players overachieving than underachieving projects as the worst in the division by a reasonable margin. Not by a ton, and I could easily imagine them winning 92 games, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'd be happy to bet on the Yankees beating the Orioles this year. B-Ref sponsorship?

And what are the current rate stat projections for the C, 3B, SS, LF and RF positions that are likely to open the season, even if Jeter is in the lineup?

CAIRO projections:

C: ~310/335 (combination of Stewart and Cervelli)
3B: 360/455 (Youkilis)
SS: 350/395 (Jeter)
LF: 350/375 (Gardner)
RF: 340/410 (Ichiro)

Catcher is a big problem - I remarked above I don't understand what Cashman's doing - but the rest of those positions look perfectly acceptable to me.

But yes, IF A-Rod's surgery holds for more than a month or two upon his return; and IF Jeter can return to his 2012 form at age 38/39 after major surgery; and IF Gardner doesn't become the reincarnation of Nick Johnson; and IF Ichiro can show that his last two months were more indicative of what's to come than the two years before that; and IF Granderson and Teixeira can reverse their production declines; and IF Mo comes back at the age of 43 to replace Soriano's 2012 effectiveness; and IF Hughes can finally have a breakthrough year; and IF Cano, Sabathia and Kuroda can keep it up; and IF Joba can take up video games and stay off trampoulines; and IF Pineda can recover from last year's injury, stay in shape, and achieve his vaunted potential; then sure, all my forebodings will magically disappear.

The Yankees didn't get a lot of those IF's in 2012 and they won 95 games....

I'd be happy to bet on the Yankees beating the Orioles this year. B-Ref sponsorship?

Sure, I'll be happy to help the Yanks by betting against them. Just tell me how that sort of a bet would work. I'd assume the players would have to be roughly equal in sponsorship cost, right?