I saw some ESPN talking head claim that he talked to GMs about it, and the consensus was roughly 1 year for $5M. Not sure I buy that. At least one fool GM would hand him 2 yr/$16M or something. Maybe up to the 3/36 you mention.

You'd have to be crazy to think that A-Rod would have a hard time getting more than 2/16 on the free agent market. He hit .272/.353/.430 in his worst year ever for an OPS of 112 and is only 36. Projecting in a straight line would be foolish. He'll have a dead cat bounce at some point, even if its only up to an 850 OPS.

DELETED (posted in wrong thread)

Yeah, I'd peg a ballpark offer on the open market to open at 3/45 or something, maybe even 4/60.

A-Rod to Colorado for Tulo, Yanks pick up 60% of remaining contract. Jeter to third.

A-Rod hits 90 home runs that land 1 foot past the fence next year.


Yep, this whole thing has a weird feel to it. I was thinking maybe there's something like a pending 50 game suspension under appeal right now or something like that.

Holy ####. That makes some sense in a weird sort of wya. Or our dept. happy hour was better than I'd thought.

They've basically blamed the 2012 postseason on ARod, just as Torre did in that ALDS against the Tigers some years ago by batting him ninth.

How funny would it be to see the Yankees' B Team get no-hit out of the playoffs. It's happening now through 4 innings. You can't blame that on ARod; he's had 7 PA in the series.

It's clear by now that, while Girardi may have started us down this path, the Yankees are clearly on board. The question is why.

And the answer is simple: Because they don't trust A-Rod in the postseason.

If the retort is, "Then that's stupid, they should trade the risk for A-Rod's reasonably projectable 2013 and 2014 regular seasons," no argument, but the answer's the answer.

I will caveat by seconding the possibilty that something like a positive roid test or other weird development is going on behind the scenes.

Yeah, I'd peg a ballpark offer on the open market to open at 3/45 or something, maybe even 4/60.

Wow.... just wow...

really?

I don't think I'd go even half that -- unless both those contract were heavily incentive-based. I'm not saying A-Rod isn't getting jerked around, but that seems like 'guaranteeing' a bounce back salary, or at least, guaranteeing an arrested slide.

Agree with #51. Yeah, ARod has compiled 10 WAR over the last 3 years. This could be the beginning of the end but I wouldn't bet on it. (I'm not expecting a bounce either really I'm just expecting ARod to pretty much just keep on keeping on for 2-3 more years).

Aramis Ramirez got 3/$36 last year. ARam was no spring chicken, was fragile, had only 3.1 WAR over the previous 3 years including a horrible 2010. Jeter signed a couple years ago for 3/$51 and nobody batted an eye. Abreu got 1/$9 (following his 2/$18 at 36). Even Carlos Pena pulled down 1/$7.25 and pre-busted Melky got 1/$6.

If the last month is ARod's future then he's toast. Otherwise, he's still an above-average 3B who wouldn't kill you at 1B/DH but can probably only be counted on for 450-500 PA a year. That's not a particularly valuable player but 2-3 WAR still costs you about $8-12 M per year.

I think anytime a guy who is 35 has a stretch as bad as A-Rod has had there are legitimate questions to be asked. Thus, I think the first PH of Ibanez for him made a lot of sense.

However, I think what has followed is supremely ridiculous. I wouldn't want to be on the hook for a lot of money to A-Rod and I wouldn't give up either money or great prospects to get him. But I think he'll be a good player for another couple of years. Of course, he might be great. And he might be done.

How funny would it be to see the Yankees' B Team get no-hit out of the playoffs.

Pretty funny. The Yankees are basically flailing in desperation and disarray. Hard not to see the humor in that.

A-Rod must actually be quite a jerk. Teams seem to fall all over themselves to pay him to play for someone else. (And the M's offer to him was a phenomenal lowball offer for arguably the best player in baseball at the time.)

The M's offer Stefan Romero for A-Rod plus $100 million.

C ya, CC.

Wow, I guess I haven't been paying attention closely, but Granderson not in the lineup either.

Has a team that reached the ALCS ever ended a season in such disarray?

You'd have to be crazy to think that A-Rod would have a hard time getting more than 2/16 on the free agent market. He hit .272/.353/.430 in his worst year ever for an OPS of 112 and is only 36. Projecting in a straight line would be foolish. He'll have a dead cat bounce at some point, even if its only up to an 850 OPS.

Yeah - but he's doing that in 2/3 a season nowadays... I mean, he'll be 37 next year - maybe his bat can bounce back, maybe not - but what are the chances he ever plays even 140 games in a season again? What are the chances that he never eclipses 99 games again?

I mean - I'd be willing to overpay for A-Rod with some wild and crazy incentives, but not overpay with guaranteed money in the hopes that he can bounce back

I will caveat by seconding the possibilty that something like a positive roid test or other weird development is going on behind the scenes.

No chance that something like this is affecting his availability. Did this "positive roid test" cause Girardi to PH Ibanez for him? Did it cause Girardi to bench him in game 5 of the ALDS, then bring him back in the ALCS? Why is he rostered for the ALCS if they can't or are not allowed to play him?

I appreciate the efforts to grasp at straws in explaining the unexplainable, but the steroids conspiracy theory makes zero sense.

Has a team that reached the ALCS ever ended a season in such disarray?

I can recall teams getting bounced unceremoniously from the playoffs.

I cannot recall a team inflicting this many bloody wounds on itself in hastening their ouster. By jerking Arod, Swisher, and Granderson in and out of the lineup and with the Jeter injury, they've turned half the lineup over.

It's unlikely, even very unlikely, but the logic would be: "The ###### tested positive again, he's out of here anyway, don't play him anymore."

The counter to the theory, beyond its unlikelihood, is the fact that the Yankees are entirely adrift, engaged in almost serial benchings.

The Yankees are basically flailing in desperation and disarray.

I'm not watching the same game. The Yankees I'm watching today are flailing like they have a train to catch. Their minds are somewhere else. There is no sense of urgency or desperation or hint that they understand this is an elimination game. They are sleepwalking. Even Girardi, not getting a reliever up after Cabrera's HR. Everyone wants it to be over. Today.

I'm not watching the same game. The Yankees I'm watching today are flailing like they have a train to catch. Their minds are somewhere else. There is no sense of urgency or desperation or hint that they understand this is an elimination game. They are sleepwalking. Even Girardi, not getting a reliever up after Cabrera's HR. Everyone wants it to be over. Today.

I think my schadenfreude would be complete if all the Yankees just came out on the field in the 7th and took one show off, and just sat there, ala Luke Wilson/Baumer in the Royal Tannebaums.

Everyone wants it to be over. Today.

I can't say I blame them.

As for ARod, seeing him standing alone on the dugout rail, staring silently out behind sunglasses...there absolutely has to be something going on here. The pinch-hit by Ibanez, I can see it. But the benching? And not playing again today? I doubt it's a steroid test, and I doubt it's an injury or just his poor recent numbers. I'd say it's that ARod has said privately something so damaging to his relationship with Girardi (or the Yankees in general) that there has been a line drawn. And if a writer as big as Nightengale and USA Today is reporting that ARod is on the wrong side of that line now, I'm likely to believe it. If they can work out a trade, I bet ARod is gone.

Nunez is the new face of the franchise.


Wrong thread.

I think the most supportive argument you can make for Girardi is that A-Rod is just not healthy. He didn't really do much after his return from injury and obviously he's been poor in the playoffs. It's not as visible an injury as Lowell in 2008 but it wouldn't surprise that that is the driver here.

Oh, I think it's quite probable that he isn't fully healthy. The problem is that this really doesn't let Girardi/Yankees off the hook for handling the issue at all. If he's to injured to play productively, you say "unfortunatley he is too hurt to help us right now, he'll be missed, but we'll try and move on without him" etc. What you don't do, is completely throw him under the bus, and then make the bus back up and reverse over him 7 times.

Girardi's pep talk before the game: "Fellas, if you'll go out there and play hard today, and win, you'll give me the chance to bench A-Rod one more time."

Well right now it's in the reported neighborhood of $150 million per year.

How much would that leave on his contract for the acquiring team to pay?

Oh please let it be the Dodgers.....PLEASE.....

I wonder what Bonds thinks of A-Rods precipitous decline? 116 more HR's? Methinks not. Nor 108.

Soriano for A-Rod plus some cash?

All of this finely detailed study of Girardi and A-Rod. The Yankees scored SIX runs in FOUR games. That's why they are going home. Unless you have Drysdale and Koufax, and even that pair might not be enough, you can't win with that kind of run production, particularly when four of the runs came in the ninth inning of Game One.

The Yankees never scored a run before the sixth inning of any game. They never had a lead in the series. Enough said.

Wrong thread.

Maybe he slept with Cindy Sandberg.

Yeah - but he's doing that in 2/3 a season nowadays... I mean, he'll be 37 next year - maybe his bat can bounce back, maybe not - but what are the chances he ever plays even 140 games in a season again? What are the chances that he never eclipses 99 games again?

Right, you're probably getting about 120 games a season for the next 2-3 seasons. But, by the stats, he's still a perfectly good defensive 3B and he's still a better hitter than the average 3B. 9.6 WAR over the last 3 seasons. Only 2 WAR this year but even if you dock him 10 runs on defense, he'd have had 2.7 WAR in 2011 in 99 games. A quick Marcel puts him at about a 115 OPS+, dock him 5% and he's around a 105-110. I would think he still projects to something in the neighborhood of 6 WAR over the next 3 years. Nothing to get excited about but at today's prices that's arguably $30-35 M worth. I've got doubts he'd actually get 3/$36 as an FA as teams seem to have learned a bit of a lesson there. But an Abreu-like 2/$18 (with incentives, an option?) should be on the table.

Yeah, his days as AROD!! are over. It certainly doesn't look like he's going to have a Chipper-style swan song. But we come to that conclusion based on the last 3 seasons. The last month is just a bad month for now.

A-Rod's age-36 2012 was a lot better than Jeter's age-36 2010. I see no reason we need to write him off; it baffles me how people forget stuff so quickly.

AROD and money for Hanley is conceivable.

Highly unlikely. AROD's career is better - but Hanley is about 8.5 years younger, and had a reasonably comparable year with the bat. Both are negative fielders at this stage, but Hanley can still play short in a pinch.

The Yanks would have to throw something else in that Ned would want. And I can't see the Yankees agreeing to that.

just skimmed the thread, but the vibe was where the Yankees send A-Rod.

I was under the impression that he had a no-trade contract and $122M guaranteed due, and that he explained to the press after the game that he would not permit the trade clause to be used, and that he expected big things in NY in 2013.

If so, this reads like analysis of how the unarmed hostage will choose to dispose of the armed captor.

Maybe, but let's ignore the AK-47 in the room, and who is currently pointing it, so to speak.

Highly unlikely.

I agree but any trade of ARod is highly unlikely. For this to happen:

a) if we take bWAR numbers seriously, Hanley has been worth just 3.7 WAR over the last three years which is 6 wins less than ARod ... so not close. fWAR likes Hanley a lot better than b-r does and the gap is only about 1.5 wins.* Regardless, Hanley has hit worse than ARod over the last 3 years (while being much more durable). It seems clear Hanley has been at least slightly worse than ARod over the last 3 years.

b) but the Yanks are convinced ARod is toast and figure they are eating $114 M either way.

c) the Dodgers have either tired of Hanley (he was no godsend for them) or would rather have ARod at 5/$31 (or 5/$40 or 5/$50) than Hanley at 2/$31.

As you say, highly unlikely. But unless the Yanks really are going to sign Youkilis (hardly impossible) or move Jeter to 3B (certainly possible with the injury), the Yanks have to get a 3B back and have to eat a big contract. The only other swap I've come up with like that is ARod for Wells and Callaspo (one year left on his contract); ARod for Howard and Rollins (Jeter to 3rd) is the other one I can see.

The most likely outcome of course is that ARod stays put. There aren't a lot of albatross contracts out there right now -- Howard, Crawford, Wells ... must be somebody I'm forgetting. (There are plenty which will probably turn into albatrosses eventually but it's too soon for their teams to give up on them.) Helton, Soriano, Lackey and Zito are almost done. The Yanks can't trade ARod for Tex. People toss Heath Bell's name around but he's only owed 2/$18.

If ARod's truly done, if the other GMs are serious about nothing better than a 1/$5 offer, then obviously ARod's going nowhere but the waiver wire eventually. But we'll have no fun speculating with that as our starting assumption. So we have to assume that somebody thinks ARod has some left in the tank, say at as much left in the tank as Aramis Ramirez. Starting from there, what trades make sense for both teams?

* It's not all defense either and it's a pretty critical difference. Hanley has either been worth nowhere near what he's paid or he's worth about exactly what he's been paid. If the latter, the Dodgers really have no incentive to trade him.

Yeah, his days as AROD!! are over. It certainly doesn't look like he's going to have a Chipper-style swan song. But we come to that conclusion based on the last 3 seasons. The last month is just a bad month for now.

For the right price, I'd love to see him in Atlanta as Chipper's replacement. The Braves are a contending them that needs a few pieces. They have a hole at 3B and are used to getting 120-130 games from their starter there. The team is otherwise pretty young. The offense is very lefty heavy with Heyward, Freeman, and a hopefully healthy McCann. With Jones' retirement, there is room in Liberty Media's budget. It's a low pressure media market and close to his Florida home. If NYY picks up $17-20m per year, I'd be happy to toss one or two of the Braves lottery pick minor league arms.

I don't think I'd go even half that

I mean - I'd be willing to overpay for A-Rod with some wild and crazy incentives, but not overpay with guaranteed money in the hopes that he can bounce back

Sure, but we're not asking what you would do, we're asking what the market would do. The market frequently pays more than we would.

Crazy thought: A-Rod and cash to Boston for John Lackey!

Hanley has either been worth nowhere near what he's paid or he's worth about exactly what he's been paid. If the latter, the Dodgers really have no incentive to trade him.

fWAR has an unrealistically low replacement level.

I was under the impression that he had a no-trade contract and $122M guaranteed due, and that he explained to the press after the game that he would not permit the trade clause to be used, and that he expected big things in NY in 2013.

True. If A-Rod doesn't want to leave, he isn't leaving. But I took this as both a sincere statement: "I'd like to stay" and a threat: "If you want me to leave, it's going to cost you."

A-Rod, surprisingly, to me, has carried himself with class and dignity through the last couple of weeks. Perhaps the Yanks figured he'd do some sort of sulk and they could use that to their advantage*. Perhaps this really is just a clash of personalities. It's pretty clear Girardi and several** Yanks just don't like A-Rod. Perhaps A-Rod's subpar postseason performance is because he's in cahoots with gamblers and this was Girardi's way of trying to minimize the damage. Who knows?

BIn the end, I suspect that if the Yankees make life hard enough of A-Rod and can provide a good landing place for him with some incentives, he'll waive the no-trade. But none of us really knows what is going on and it seems clear there are issues hidden from public view that are driving much of this. Because, given what we know, none of it makes much sense.

Sure, but we're not asking what you would do, we're asking what the market would do. The market frequently pays more than we would.

Sure - but I would presumably be one of that market, having at least some impact... I think any team paying more than 30 million for A-Rod is likely to get less than that in value -- Walt's #81 sounds about right, I'm just taking the low side.

Of course, there are certain situations where it's worth it to overpay -- if you're a legit contender with a hole at 3B, and you can essentially get him for free from the Yankees -- I could see going 35+.

The most likely outcome of course is that ARod stays put. There aren't a lot of albatross contracts out there right now -- Howard, Crawford, Wells ... must be somebody I'm forgetting. (There are plenty which will probably turn into albatrosses eventually but it's too soon for their teams to give up on them.) Helton, Soriano, Lackey and Zito are almost done. The Yanks can't trade ARod for Tex. People toss Heath Bell's name around but he's only owed 2/$18.

I thought Lackey still had a fair number of years left... it feels weird looking at Soriano like he's no longer an albatross, but at this point, he really isn't. Sure, sure -- he's way overpaid -- but just two more years and it's not like he's really blocking anyone (nor is he any sort of clubhouse problem). I would have been willing to either jump dump or pay to dump plus get a lottery ticket back this past season, but at this point? I really don't care if he gets moved or not. I'm not expecting anything like 2012 in his 2013 or 2014 season, but I think it's not unreasonable to say Soriano's 2013 may well be somewhere in between his 2012 and 2011... say, 110 OPS+. I wish we weren't paying 18 mil for that, of course.

At this point with Fonsie -- I'd obviously listen to offers, and absolutely be willing to eat a good chunk of the remaining dollars, but I'd expect something of at least minimal value back. I'm no longer just desperate to dump him. A couple lottery tickets or a cheapish but unexciting OF or a backend SP with favorable contract situation or something. I'm not saying I would expect anyone to offer up that, but it would probably be in the neighborhood of what I'd ask for.

A-Rod, surprisingly, to me, has carried himself with class and dignity through the last couple of weeks. Perhaps the Yanks figured he'd do some sort of sulk and they could use that to their advantage*. Perhaps this really is just a clash of personalities. It's pretty clear Girardi and several** Yanks just don't like A-Rod. Perhaps A-Rod's subpar postseason performance is because he's in cahoots with gamblers and this was Girardi's way of trying to minimize the damage. Who knows?

You're just a footnote tease, that's what you are.

The market frequently pays more than we would.

QFT. Don't forget that this is the Yankees. The one team that couldn't care less about flushing money down the toilet, but for some reason they never seem to have to. I mean, the Cubs had to pay basically Zambrano's whole salary to be rid of him. But when the Yankees got tired of overpaying Irabu, they dumped him on the Expos without having to pay anything. They even got some useful parts. When they didn't want to overpay Sheffield any more, they got the Tigers to take him without having to throw in any cash at all. It's what they do.

QFT. Don't forget that this is the Yankees. The one team that couldn't care less about flushing money down the toilet, but for some reason they never seem to have to. I mean, the Cubs had to pay basically Zambrano's whole salary to be rid of him. But when the Yankees got tired of overpaying Irabu, they dumped him on the Expos without having to pay anything. They even got some useful parts. When they didn't want to overpay Sheffield any more, they got the Tigers to take him without having to throw in any cash at all. It's what they do.

Don't forget the Big Unit back to Arizona deal... it's not like the Yankees got a haul, but the only thing they really had to eat was Luis Vizcaino.

It's pretty clear Girardi and several Yanks just don't like A-Rod.

This is the narrative, but I'd like to point out for the record that it's not a 100% certainty that this is what has gone on for the last week.

Joe Girardi chose not to use Rodriguez as much as he could have in the Tiger series. That's not disputable.

But he could have been watching the ABs. He could have information that we don't share out here. Girardi obviously believed that he had better options than A-Rod this week. Despite all of the hand-wringing, I don't think he's necessarily said anything about not having him on the team at all going forward.

Are the Yankees better off with Jayson Nix playing every day at third and maybe as much as $50 million of payroll flexibility in 2013? I don't think they are, and I believe that Yankee brass, given time to process this loss, will agree with me.

A-Rod, surprisingly, to me, has carried himself with class and dignity through the last couple of weeks. Perhaps the Yanks figured he'd do some sort of sulk and they could use that to their advantage*. Perhaps this really is just a clash of personalities. It's pretty clear Girardi and several** Yanks just don't like A-Rod. Perhaps A-Rod's subpar postseason performance is because he's in cahoots with gamblers and this was Girardi's way of trying to minimize the damage. Who knows?



You're just a footnote tease, that's what you are.

Hmm. I wonder what those were going to be.

* How, I have no idea.

** Certainly not all, IMO.


Erik, it's true that Girardi may have - hopefully was - basing his decisions on more than personal dislike. I'm more thinking how no one ever seems to rise very enthusiastically to his defense. You can imagine how it will go when/if Jeter has to be PH for or benched. One, he's already been there and they didn't do it. Two, they will fall all over themselves saying how it tears them up. I don't think Girardi sat A-Rod because he doesn't like him. I just don't think he's too broken up about it. Aside from how it hurts the team to not have a superstar 3Bman.

I don't really think Girardi did it because he dislikes A-Rod. I think he really felt like Ibanez/Chavez were better and he knew that the media wouldn't care because they hate the centaur. Now, he probably only felt Ibanez or Chavez was better because of that one home run that Ibanez hit the first time, which is terrible managing, but I'd guess it was genuine.

First 13 games coming back from the injury:

.300/.351/.520 with 3 HR

Since then (September 19):

.202/.299/.214 with 0 HR

I am not sure this eliminates the injury being part of the cause. I know personally that I had a knee issue that initially seemed to be fixed but then got progressively worse over the summer as I played. I needed additional rest before it got better. So I could see a scenario where ARod is pain free right after coming off the DL, but that it started to return as he continued to play.

Don't forget the Big Unit back to Arizona deal... it's not like the Yankees got a haul, but the only thing they really had to eat was Luis Vizcaino.

Ewwww.

I don't think he goes anywhere, but we'll see.

Do the Yankees have anything else of value that they would/could throw into the deal?

Do the Yankees have anything else of value that they would/could throw into the deal?

Nova? Lots of B- to B pitching prospects.