Wednesday, June 19, 2013
ESPN.com: Yankees Acquire Fartinez
(espn.go.com)
posted 21 hours ago by Gonna break my Rusty Kuntz and run . . . Arbitol to astros, mets, prospects, yankees
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28 comment(s)
I’m predicting about 30 home runs during the remainder of 2013 and 50 next year.
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1 2 >Yankees 86.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Rays 86.0
Red Sox 79.5
Orioles 76.5
So the Yankees are co-favorites with the Jays based on win totals alone with the Rays as close as it gets. Obviously betters don't see the Orioles as likely to repeat the magic of 2012.
Tigers (90)
Angels (89.5)
Rangers (87) (wild card #1)
Yankees/Jays (86.5) (one AL East winner, other wild card #2)
NL Playoff teams...
Dodgers (90)
Nationals (90)
Reds (89.5)
Atlanta/Giants (86 each) (wild cards 1 & 2)
Interesting choices.
What Vegas oddsmakers mostly are saying is that the public believes the Yankees may record the fewest wins in 20 years. They now dabble somewhat into what they expect as well, to maximize profits, but public PERCEPTION continues to weigh heavily on line-setting.
No season longer than 140 games has failed to produce a team that led MLB in wins and won at least 91 games.
Source: My analysis of data at http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/
In gambling the trick is to pick the team/teams that will do it which is why the line is what it is. It's factoring in the uncertainty.
I'd take the under on the Cubs and the over on the Nationals and Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers 90
Washington Nationals 90
Los Angeles Angels 89 1/2
Some interesting World Series matchups in there: Tigers-Nats would be my dream, Tigers-Dodgers would also be cool (would Vin Scully call the games?). And finally a possible Freeway Series!
(I realize that no team is likely to win +-3 games of their projection. But given that, I think the Yankees are even less likely to win 86.5+-3 games than what you might think just looking at how teams do against historical lines.)
Understood. With no team "predicted" to win over 90 games, it is probably a good bet to take the over on almost any team you think will make the playoffs / generically "do well."
I thought one could collect on sportsbook bets by mail.
RLYW had the CAIRO standing up yesterday.
The Yankees are exactly at 87, with the Rays at 88 and the Jays at 90.
The fact that no team is projected to win over 90 games is not a projection that no team will win over 90 games.
You see the same kind of compression in the CAIRO projections. The projections are meant to be an estimate of how good a team is, averaging out the unpredictable factor of how lucky a team is. It's not so weird for there to be no team in the league with more than 90-win talent. But there are a lot of teams with 85-90 win talent and some of them are going to get lucky.
Also, I think 76.5 is low for the Orioles. There's no reason to expect them to win 93 games again, but 76.5 says they're going to put worse talent on the field this year than they did last year, and I just don't see that.
Well, the division is almost certainly tougher. 36 games against Boston and Toronto are going to be harder than last year's.
Yup, this.
The fact that they have 5 teams that are virtual coin-flips to win over 90, and about another 7 with reasonable non-outside shots at doing so, means they think there will be quite a few. They just aren't sure which ones it will be.
It's basic probability. No one has good odds of getting in a car wreck next week, but somebody will.
It’s the Orioles, duh.
They've had their best offseason in recent memory, but the starting rotation is a guy who's had one good season as a starter since 2006 (Myers), a 22-year-old who may well be a star but has four career MLB appearances (Bauer), a guy who absolutely cannot get LHB out and has an ERA+ of 92 over his last 602 innings (Masterson), a guy who's obviously broken and has an 82 ERA+ since 2011 (Jimenez), and a back-end guy who appears to be entirely adequate, but whose ceiling is approximately Number Three Starter (McAllister).
For the first time in forever, I feel like they know what they're trying to accomplish. Alas, that doesn't make it any easier in the short term to go .500 with a rotation full of junk and question marks.
RLYW had the CAIRO standing up yesterday.
The Yankees are exactly at 87, with the Rays at 88 and the Jays at 90.
Well and good, but the Yankees' starting lineup looks a lot more like Damascus than Cairo.
This level of whining is unbecoming a Yankee fan ;-)
They are what they are, a good, not great team. There are no great teams in the AL, so they've got as good a chance as most anybody.
Lines aren't projections, but even if they were projecting 3 teams to win 90, 1 to win 89 1/2, 1 to win 88 1/2, and 1 to win 87 is a guarantee that a team will win 91. As I look at it, I actually suspect you'd have to give 1 to 20 on any team winning 91+ games.
Lines aren't projections, but even if they were projecting 3 teams to win 90, 1 to win 89 1/2, 1 to win 88 1/2, and 1 to win 87 is a guarantee that a team will win 91. As I look at it, I actually suspect you'd have to give 1 to 20 on any team winning 91+ games.
Of course. If 7 teams had only a 10% chance each of winning 90, the odds still favor at least 1 90 game winner. (0.9)^7=48%.
Don't forget Matsuzaka!
This level of whining is unbecoming a Yankee fan ;-)
I'm just facing the facts. In 5 out of 9 starting positions, including DH, their production is almost certain to decline, and in the other 4 (1B, 2B, LF, CF) you're just hoping to hold the line. They're defensively strong in at most 4 positions (Texeira, Cano, Gardner and Ichiro), there are no catching prospects of any noticeable quality in sight, and the only pitchers almost certain to increase their production are Mo and Pineda. If you could turn the clock back about 5 years or so, this team would be great, and if our parents had been Chinese, we'd probably have yellowish skin.
They are what they are, a good, not great team. There are no great teams in the AL, so they've got as good a chance as most anybody.
That over/under's out there if you really believe that. I've already made my standing offer about the Yanks and the Orioles, and anyone else who wants to take me up on it is welcome to come forward.
Yes, you can mail back the ticket and they send you a check.
That's a fair point. Baltimore finished 24 games over .500 last year, and 12 games over .500 against Boston and Toronto.
I had the same reaction. If the Vegas book is 59 wins...ouch.
Racist.
The Yankees are the killer in a typical slasher movie: just when you think they're dead for good, they strike! (Meanwhile, the Red Sox are the teenage girl who decides a lonely lake in the middle of the night is ideal for skinny-dipping.)
I kind of like the overs on the Nats, Jays, and Red Sox. I don't hate the unders on the Dodgers, White Sox and Mariners.
That's a fair point. Baltimore finished 24 games over .500 last year, and 12 games over .500 against Boston and Toronto.
Baltimore against Toronto, 2012: 11-7
Yankees against Toronto, 2012: 11-7
Baltimore against Boston, 2012: 13-5
Yankees against Boston, 2012: 13-5
I'm thinking of Night of the Living Dead, except that even zombies sometimes run out of arms and legs.
Just because production will decline from a previous level doesn't mean it will be bad. Especially when the previous level was one of the best offenses in the league.
Detroit Tigers 90 Over
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 Under
Washington Nationals 90 Under
Los Angeles Angels 89 1/2 Over
Cincinnati Reds 88 1/2 Under
Texas Rangers 87 Over
Toronto Blue Jays 86 1/2 Over
New York Yankees 86 1/2 Under
San Francisco Giants 86 Over
Atlanta Braves 86 Over
Tampa Bay Rays 86 Under
St. Louis Cardinals 85 1/2 Over
Oakland Athletics 83 Under
Philadelphia Phillies 81 1/2 Under
Arizona Diamondbacks 81 1/2 Under
Chicago White Sox 80 1/2 Over
Milwaukee Brewers 79 1/2 Over
Boston Red Sox 79 1/2 Over
Kansas City Royals 79 Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 Under
Cleveland Indians 77 1/2 Under
Baltimore Orioles 76 1/2 Over
Seattle Mariners 76 1/2 Under
San Diego Padres 74 1/2 Under
New York Mets 74 Over
Chicago Cubs 72 Under
Colorado Rockies 71 1/2 Over
Minnesota Twins 64 1/2 Over
Miami Marlins 64 1/2 Over
Houston Astros 59 1/2 Under
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 Under
Washington Nationals 90 Under
Los Angeles Angels 89 1/2 Over
Cincinnati Reds 88 1/2 Over
Texas Rangers 87 Over
Toronto Blue Jays 86 1/2 Under
New York Yankees 86 1/2 Over
San Francisco Giants 86 Over
Atlanta Braves 86 Over
Tampa Bay Rays 86 Over
St. Louis Cardinals 85 1/2 Over
Oakland Athletics 83 Under
Philadelphia Phillies 81 1/2 Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 81 1/2 Under
Chicago White Sox 80 1/2 Under
Milwaukee Brewers 79 1/2 Over
Boston Red Sox 79 1/2 Over
Kansas City Royals 79 Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 Over
Cleveland Indians 77 1/2 Over
Baltimore Orioles 76 1/2 Under
Seattle Mariners 76 1/2 Under
San Diego Padres 74 1/2 Over
New York Mets 74 Over
Chicago Cubs 72 Under
Colorado Rockies 71 1/2 Over
Minnesota Twins 64 1/2 Over
Miami Marlins 64 1/2 Over
Houston Astros 59 1/2 Under
That's crazy.
The LF/CF combo should be MUCH better this year with Gardner/Granderson (in whatever alignment) vs. Ibanez/Jones/Granderson. Youkilis could easily match ARod at 3B. Hafner in DNYS should be able to match the DH committee. Cano and Texeira could be better, the same, or worse. Maybe down is more likely, but up is a possibility.
They'll be weaker at C and RF. Likely SS too.
But this team had the second highest runs scored and the second highest OPS+. Even with a decline, they can still be good on offense. And, the pitching should be good too.
I don't see how the Red Sox project ahead of the Jays.
My working theory is that, when the Astros show up, the team will be flabbergasted by the fact that they are actually far more talented than an interdivision rival. As a result of this confusion, they'll go 8-10 vs. Houston.
Edit: Apparently my working theory also includes a rain-out, since it looks as though there are actually 19 games scheduled between these teams.
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