I don't know if they have this, but if they did my guess is that the over/under for the win total of the mlb leader in wins this season would be 96.5 or so.

I don't know if they have this, but if they did my guess is that the over/under for the win total of the mlb leader in wins this season would be 96.5 or so.

That seems low. Under 96.5 would only have won 1 of the last 20 seasons (excluding '94).

I'll be shocked if the Astros win 60 games. It's hard to see that roster coming up with more than 55-57 wins. I'm not a betting man, but I suppose there is a hesitancy to bet at the extremes. After all, going 62-100 could never be considered too shocking an accomplishment. Of course I'm already seeing Carlos Rodon at 1-1 in the 2014 draft, and at the end of the 2014 season there's a decent chance the Astros will be looking at having the first pick in the draft three years running. Oh, for a Strasburg/Harper convergence of some kind.

And I'm taking the over on Oakland.

the fact that none are projected over 90 does not mean that Vegas has systematically underrated the good teams. (With reference to escabeche, snapper, and FPH's points above.)

With reference to all of these well-made points, the one and only task of Vegas oddsmakers is to split the money coming in. Lines are not predictions or projections, they're tools to make money. They don't set lines for accuracy, they set lines to reflect perception, because when bettors' money is split on a line, they collect 100% from the losers and pay 10-to-11 or 10-to-11.5 to the winners.

I've got a buddy going to Vegas next week but I don't think I'd put enough money down to make it worthwhile to have to travel back to Vegas to collect.

The obstacle for me hasn't been the inconvenience of collection but the fact that Vegas gets to keep your money for 6 months on a -110 or -115 proposition. Every year I pick my favorite win total and I'm almost always right (over on the White Sox last year), so it seems I should bet the farm once a year and clean up, but that means Vegas has my farm for half the year. Only futures bet I've ever made on baseball was the Red Sox to win the WS in 2004, a bet I made around mid-May after a tough stretch.

Interestingly, all the lines taken together leave 24 wins out of the equation, so on balance the overs might be seen as better bets. I wonder if this is common - not something I've ever looked at.

If we're predicting:

Detroit Tigers 90 over
LosAngeles Dodgers 90 over
Washington Nationals 90 over
LosAngeles Angels 89.5 under
Cincinnati Reds 88.5 over
Texas Rangers 87 over
Toronto BlueJays 86.5 over
NewYork Yankees 86.5 under
SanFrancisco Giants 86 under
Atlanta Braves 86 over
TampaBay Rays 86 under
St.Louis Cardinals 85.5 under
Oakland Athletics 83 over
Philadelphia Phillies 81.5 under
Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5 over
Chicago WhiteSox 80.5 under
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 over
Boston RedSox 79.5 over
KansasCity Royals 79 under
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 over
Cleveland Indians 77.5 under
Baltimore Orioles 76.5 over
Seattle Mariners 76.5 under
SanDiego Padres 74.5 under
NewYork Mets 74 under
Chicago Cubs 72 over
Colorado Rockies 71.5 under
Minnesota Twins 64.5 under
Miami Marlins 64.5 under
Houston Astros 59.5 under

Under on the M's or Pads or over on Detroit might be the clubhouse leaders for my favorite total bets this year.

Detroit Tigers 90 under
LosAngeles Dodgers 90 under
Washington Nationals 90 over
LosAngeles Angels 89.5 over
Cincinnati Reds 88.5 over
Texas Rangers 87 under
Toronto BlueJays 86.5 under
NewYork Yankees 86.5 over
SanFrancisco Giants 86 over
Atlanta Braves 86 over
TampaBay Rays 86 over
St.Louis Cardinals 85.5 under
Oakland Athletics 83 under
Philadelphia Phillies 81.5 over
Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5 over
Chicago WhiteSox 80.5 over
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 under
Boston RedSox 79.5 over
KansasCity Royals 79 over
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 under
Cleveland Indians 77.5 over
Baltimore Orioles 76.5 over
Seattle Mariners 76.5 under
SanDiego Padres 74.5 under
NewYork Mets 74 under
Chicago Cubs 72 under
Colorado Rockies 71.5 over
Minnesota Twins 64.5 over
Miami Marlins 64.5 under
Houston Astros 59.5 over

Hey, judging by some of these over-unders, I'd say there is a not-nonexistent chance of a 5-way tie of 81-81 in the AL East! Go Entropy!

Detroit Tigers 90 Over
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 Over
Washington Nationals 90 Way over - best bet over
Los Angeles Angels 89 1/2 Over
Cincinnati Reds 88 1/2 Over
Texas Rangers 87 Over
Toronto Blue Jays 86 1/2 Over
New York Yankees 86 1/2 Under
San Francisco Giants 86 Over
Atlanta Braves 86 Over
Tampa Bay Rays 86 Over
St. Louis Cardinals 85 1/2 Over
Oakland Athletics 83 Over
Philadelphia Phillies 81 1/2 Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 81 1/2 Under
Chicago White Sox 80 1/2 Under
Milwaukee Brewers 79 1/2 Over
Boston Red Sox 79 1/2 under
Kansas City Royals 79 over
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 under
Cleveland Indians 77 1/2 Over
Baltimore Orioles 76 1/2 over
Seattle Mariners 76 1/2 Under
San Diego Padres 74 1/2 Over
New York Mets 74 under
Chicago Cubs 72 Under
Colorado Rockies 71 1/2 under
Minnesota Twins 64 1/2 Over
Miami Marlins 64 1/2 Over
Houston Astros 59 1/2 Under

With reference to all of these well-made points, the one and only task of Vegas oddsmakers is to split the money coming in.

Yes but this suggests that half the people are betting the Astros to be over 59.5 wins ... must be Republicans because nobody else is that insane.

Best bets: Orioles over, Cubs under, Mets over.

The Phillies clinched the under on August 22, with 38 games left, last year.

2012 Major League Baseball Season Win Totals

(Odds courtesy Atlantis Casino sportsbook, Reno, Nev.)

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5

My favorite bets on this:

Over on the Cubs (72)

(big gap, as this seems like the easiest call)

Over on the Red Sox (79.5)
Under on the Tigers (90)
Under on the Phillies (81.5)
Over on the Padres (74.5)

61. Davo Mastroianni Posted: February 14, 2013 at 05:53 PM (#4369898)
My favorite bets on this:

Over on the Cubs (72)

59. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: February 14, 2013 at 05:26 PM (#4369870)
Best bets: Orioles over, Cubs under, Mets over.

You guys should bet each other. I get 5% for brokering the deal.

With reference to all of these well-made points, the one and only task of Vegas oddsmakers is to split the money coming in.

Yes but this suggests that half the people are betting the Astros to be over 59.5 wins ... must be Republicans because nobody else is that insane.

You do know there's a dedicated thread here for spouting random political insults, right?

PECOTA took the over on Houston (66 wins, 3 more than the Twins and Marlins).

You do know there's a dedicated thread here for spouting random political insults, right?

the Trevor Bauer rap thread?

Detroit Tigers 90 over
LosAngeles Dodgers 90 under
Washington Nationals 90 over
LosAngeles Angels 89.5 over
Cincinnati Reds 88.5 over
Texas Rangers 87 under
Toronto BlueJays 86.5 under
NewYork Yankees 86.5 under
SanFrancisco Giants 86 push!
Atlanta Braves 86 over
TampaBay Rays 86 over
St.Louis Cardinals 85.5 under
Oakland Athletics 83 over
Philadelphia Phillies 81.5 under
Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5 under
Chicago WhiteSox 80.5 over
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 under
Boston RedSox 79.5 under
KansasCity Royals 79 over
Pittsburgh Pirates 79 under
Cleveland Indians 77.5 over
Baltimore Orioles 76.5 over
Seattle Mariners 76.5 under
SanDiego Padres 74.5 over
NewYork Mets 74 under
Chicago Cubs 72 under
Colorado Rockies 71.5 over
Minnesota Twins 64.5 over
Miami Marlins 64.5 over
Houston Astros 59.5 under

Interestingly, all the lines taken together leave 24 wins out of the equation

Yeah, I thought these projections looked awfully pessimistic overall. It's funny, because normally the odds add up to a little over 81 wins per team, taking advantage of homerism from bettors.

Anyway, the same post with my bets, but with a win added to 18 teams and half a win added to the others to correct for the lack of aggregate wins:

Detroit Tigers 90 1/2 Under
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 1/2 Over
Washington Nationals 90 1/2 Under
Los Angeles Angels 90 Under
Cincinnati Reds 89 Under
Texas Rangers 87 1/2 Over
Toronto Blue Jays 87 Over
New York Yankees 87 Over
San Francisco Giants 86 1/2 Under
Atlanta Braves 86 1/2 Under
Tampa Bay Rays 86 1/2 Under
St. Louis Cardinals 86 Under
Oakland Athletics 83 1/2 Over
Philadelphia Phillies 82 1/2 Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 82 Over
Chicago White Sox 81 1/2 Under
Milwaukee Brewers 80 1/2 Under
Boston Red Sox 80 1/2 Over
Kansas City Royals 80 Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 80 Under
Cleveland Indians 78 1/2 Over
Baltimore Orioles 77 1/2 Under
Seattle Mariners 77 1/2 Under
San Diego Padres 75 1/2 Over
New York Mets 75 Over
Chicago Cubs 73 Over
Colorado Rockies 72 1/2 Under
Minnesota Twins 65 1/2 Over
Miami Marlins 65 1/2 Over
Houston Astros 60 1/2 Over

Does that mean you can bet the over on every team and win some good money?

No, because o/u bets are -110 or -115.

In other words you have to bet $115 to win $100.

In the aggregate, the vig (and variation, but that's a different topic) overwhelms the -24 total total.

In other words, if the bets were even odds you'd lay out $3k to make a $100 "over" bet on each team. Say that because of the -24, 16 of 30 teams are a lock to beat the over. You'd lay $3k to make $3200. Free money - depending on your opinion of the time value of money. But because these bets are at -115, now you're laying $3450 to win $3440 ($1600 winnings plus $1840 of your bet back). Vegas has an idea what they're doing.

I'm sure someone will be along shortly to explain this more clearly.

Austin's right that usually the reverse is true, though. Now I wish this is something I had been paying attention to for years. Wonder if it's indicative of a cultural trend or something.

The oddsmakers seem to be saying the Yankees are as good as anyone in the AL East. Not sure why that's taken as a negative. Too much focus on the number of wins projected rather than the overall result., IMHO. After all, the last time the Yankees had "only" 87 wins turned out to be a very good year. If healthy, the pitching could be very good, with the added boost with Pineda for the second half, too.

From 4 teams with O/U set at 91+ wins in 2012 to 0 in 2013.

Isn't that at least a little odd?

2012 Major League Baseball Season Win Totals

(Odds courtesy Atlantis Casino sportsbook, Reno, Nev.)

[...]

Detroit Tigers 94.5 

[...]

New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)

[...]

Philadelphia Phillies 95.5

[...]

Texas Rangers 94.5

74 wins seems high for the Mets what with losing Dickey, Wright having had a season he's unlikely to repeat, the bullpen dying, and an OF that's going from around ML worst to, well, worse than that. I suppose D'Arnaud and Marcum might help staunch the bleeding, but any team with John Buck as there Opening Day catcher is hurting.

PECOTA has the Mets at 80 wins, or where Vegas has the Red Sox, and the Red Sox at 86 wins, or where Vegas has the Yankees. Weird.

All 30 teams will finish 81-81, with tiebreaker games lasting into November and the World Series starting Christmas Day between Detroit and...San Antonio. (Wait, what?)