*ignored*

So, who's out there for teams that have to shop for hamburger instead of steak?

I've put up with your insulting the Royals for years Dan, but I will not have you insult hamburgers. They are delicious!

Link broken (edit: link works). How do you find any of Dan's ESPN.com work? I don't see anything on the baseball main page and I think I am signed in as insider.

Link broken. How do you find any of Dan's ESPN.com work? I don't see anything on the baseball main page and I think I am signed in as insider.

Link should work now.

If you click on any of the Buyer's Guide articles, there's a list of all the articles.

I generally post direct links to make it easier to find - sometimes things are on the front page for awhile, sometimes only briefly. There's a lot of content after all!

This is my ESPN archive. It's not complete as there are some print things and some missing blog entries, but I think it has everything over the last 4 or 5 months.

This may have been mentioned in the article, so I don't mean to presume Dan didn't cover it. Nonetheless, these are Javier Vazquez's average fastball velocities and FIPs over his career, 2002-2010:

90.5, 91.8, 90.1, 91.7, 91.2, 91.8, 91.7, 91.1, 88.7
3.68, 3.31, 4.78, 4.06, 3.86, 3.80, 3.74, 2.77, 5.56

Watching Vazquez down the stretch, he couldn't get anyone out with that crappy fastball. Unless his velocity rebounds (and, interestingly, it did after the smaller dip in 2004), he's done. While I'm sure Vazquez's projection will look good because it will weight pre-2010 performance similarly to 2010 performance, I tend to think with someone who had a real change in ability that his most recent performance is more in line with his expected performance into the future than his projections will say.

I'd be happy to place bets on Javier Vazquez underperforming his projections if someone wants to bet on the numbers.

I've put up with your insulting the Royals for years Dan, but I will not have you insult hamburgers. They are delicious!

Many teams would gladly pay Vazquez Tuesday for an averagish season today.

Thanks. I had found your archive (but this article wasn't on it).
--
I'm really curious about how much De La Rosa gets, and how he does the next couple of years.

I would love to see Vazquez in a Met uniform.

Vazquez has a career ERA half a run higher than his career xFIP. In addition there is the data MCOA posted in #5. Throw in the whole "Ozzie Guillen called him out for being a p#ssy" thing (and Ozzie was right IMO) and it all points to a guy who (go figure, he's done it his whole career expect in 08) is fool's gold for anyone expecting more than a solid middle of the rotation starter. The Braves got his career year, good for them.

That said, a 110 ERA+ for 200 innings is what, around 4 WAR? So that's valuable, but tempered expectations with the soon to be 35 year old seem to be in order.

I'd really like to see the rest of Dan's post to see what the projection system has for him, but I'm with MCOA -- gimme the under.

@8 -- I don't usually buy into the whole "bright lights of NYC" crap, but with Javier I wouldn't even begin to think of him as able to withstand the pressure of the Mets, especially given that he just failed completely over in the Bronx. If I'm the Mets, I stay clear of him unless he wants to take a big discount.

I would love to see Vazquez in a Met uniform.

i, too, would love to see vazquez in a met uniform.

@8 -- I don't usually buy into the whole "bright lights of NYC" crap, but with Javier I wouldn't even begin to think of him as able to withstand the pressure of the Mets, especially given that he just failed completely over in the Bronx. If I'm the Mets, I stay clear of him unless he wants to take a big discount.

what pressure? they suck. the fans know they suck. the players know they suck. how much pressure can there be when the fanbase would be ecstatic if he put up a 12-10 season?

The first "Javy Seen This Man?" headline in the Post after Vazquez gives up 6 runs in 2 innings as the Mets lose to the Phillies to fall 6 back on May 5th and Javier is gonna start to fold like a cheap tent on the banks of K2.

The Mets always have expectations, comes with the territory of a top 5 payroll.

That said, a 110 ERA+ for 200 innings is what, around 4 WAR? So that's valuable, but tempered expectations with the soon to be 35 year old seem to be in order.

190-210 IP, ERA+ 108 to 112
WAR ranges from 1.1 to 4.3...
The clsoest match is Brad Radke, 2005, 110 ERA+ in 200 2/3 IP
WAR was 2.1

That annoyance out of the way

1: see post 5
2: yes his velocity was down in 2004- but not like 2010

In 2004 Vasquez looked like he'd forgotten how to pitch and at the end decided that he as just going to play catch with the catcher- I'm actually surprised his velo was down in 2004- because that looked ok- the problem was that a 90 MPH fastball with no movement should not split the plate down the middle- and in fact it doesn't because it has a distressing tendency to get violently intercepted by an implement made of ash or maple before it hits leather.

Javy version 2010 looked like far better PITCHER than ver. 2004- but a far Worse THROWER

In 2004 Javy was bothered by something- I don't know if it was NY (though Yankee fans KNOW it was)

2010? It really looks like a change in physical ability

The Mets don't have a great chance of competing next year for the wild card because their starting pitching doesn't have that front end talent. Vazquez has been a frontline pitcher 2 out of the last four. It's unlikely that he will be a frontline starter next year. But he's someone that I could see the Mets rolling the dice with and hoping for the best. Big upisde and the downside doesn't really matter if it's just a one year deal. So why not?

In 2004 Javy was bothered by something- I don't know if it was NY (though Yankee fans KNOW it was)

Javy claimed later that he had shoulder issues in the 2nd half of 2004 that he didn't tell anyone about and tried to pitch through.

Obviously, that could be seen as a bit of after-the-fact excuse making, but he *did* get selected to the 2004 All Star Game, his first half of 2004 was quite good and an shoulder "injury" or impairment of some kind seems like a fairly logical explanation for his disaster of a 2nd half (rather than, say, he woke up one morning with a critical case of "Ed Whitson-itis".)

Obviously, that could be seen as a bit of after-the-fact excuse making, but he *did* get selected to the 2004 All Star Game, his first half of 2004 was quite good and an shoulder "injury" or impairment of some kind seems like a fairly logical explanation for his disaster of a 2nd half (rather than, say, he woke up one morning with a critical case of "Ed Whitson-itis".)

It would be a weird little career, wouldn't it? Years and years of solid innings eating, a near Cy Young campaign and a couple very good ones, and two lost seasons where something was really wrong physically - and both of those seasons just happened to be with the New York Yankees, screwing over Vazquez's reputation forever.

I think the years of underperforming his peripherals with the White Sox did at least as much to screw his reputation as anything else.

and two lost seasons where something was really wrong physically - and both of those seasons just happened to be with the New York Yankees

That's what we call "divine providence".

1991-2010, K/9 betwwen 7.6 and 8.6, bb/9 between 2.0 and 2.8:

Now Nolasco is a man who has underachieved his peripherals
from 2000-2009 Javy had 8.3 k/9 and 2.2 bb/9 and an ERA+ of 113
what do such peripherals usually get?
1991-2010, 12 seasons 162+ ip, k/9 of 8.1 to 8.5, k/9 2.0 to 2.4
those 12 seasons averaged almost exactly Javy's 2000-2009 peripherals (and even close to his HR rate)- and averaged an ERA+ of 126 (130 excluding Jamie Shields 2010 BABIP catastrophe)
His career BABIP is well pretty normal his career HR/9 is a little high (well not even "high", its' about league average- it's a little high for someone with Javy's peripherals- not high enough to make his ERA+ run 13 points under what his peripherals indicate.

He's always seemed to be less than the sum of his parts. I think he slightly- but consistently lets a few more runners score, gives up a few extra hits a year with RISP- I think he is a player for whom WAR is simply wrong- pretty much off by 0.5 wins a year- he's the opposite of Tom Glavine- the evil twin so to speak. He's what Blyleven's detractors THINK Blyleven is.