BBTF.org/m/zips : ESPN: Szymborski: Projecting Strasburg’s career (INSIDER REQ.)

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

ESPN: Szymborski: Projecting the AL Standings (INSIDER)

(bit.ly)

posted on March 27, 2013 at 07:36 PM by DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players to espn, sabermetrics, zips | 113 comment(s)

Seasons are simulated a million times using a Monte Carlo method, the percentile performance of player projections and estimates of roster construction. There are other bits of mathematical nerdery involved (linear algebra for the win!), but I’m sure you want to get down to the results, so here we go.

And the NL.

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51. SOLockwood posted on June 10, 2010 at 04:33 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Me: Robin Ventura (plus Tim Hudson, and the real Crash Davis)
Wife: Nolan Ryan (plus Ernie Banks and Jackie Robinson)

better not charge the mound.

Daughter: Jeff Conine, Rico Petrocelli, Jim Edmonds

52. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) posted on June 10, 2010 at 04:40 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

and might for all I know be my nth cousin

technically, we're ALL nth cousins if you make n big enough

I'd stack my team against anyone as being the worst--I do have 2 very questionable HOFers (Traynor and Maranville), but after that, only Hal Trotsky. But pitching?--the pitcher with the most wins is Ike Delock (who?)

53. Dingbat_Charlie

posted on June 10, 2010 at 04:48 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Bob Horner and Andy Messersmith. And Hiroshima.

edit - actually, I'd probably take Sherry Magee over Horner.

54. Davo Mastroianni posted on June 10, 2010 at 05:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I seem to recall doing this before, and I think August 23rd would produce the best actual team. There aren't as many superstars as other birthdays (2 HOFers, and I think only 1 of those is a HOMer), but they had really good players at every position. Let's see....

C: John Romano/Sherm Lollar
1b: Julio Franco
2b: Lonny Frey/Mark Bellhorn
3b: George Kell
Ss: George Davis
Of: Casey Blake
Of: Dale Mitchell
Of: Ron Blomberg

Pitching was not as good:

SP: Guy Bush
SP: Mike Boddicker
SP: Nels Potter
SP: Lew Richie
RP: Randy St. Claire

55. McCoy Wilfong for Money posted on June 10, 2010 at 05:36 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

The best hitter I share a birthday with is Ty Cobb and the best pitcher I share a birthday with is Steve Trachsel. Go figure.

56. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide posted on June 10, 2010 at 05:39 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Dingbat Charlie and my wife share the same birthday.

57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) posted on June 10, 2010 at 05:56 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

On Feb 20, I've got a pretty nice rotation, Bill Gullickson, Livan Herandez, Justin Verlander, Clyde Wright and Dave Davenport, and Elroy Face in the pen.

My outfield looks good: Sam Rice, Tommy Henrich, Ryan Sweeney and Julio Borbon, I've got Brian McCann behind the plate, but no IFs at all.

58. tfbg9 posted on June 10, 2010 at 05:59 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

11/14

Curtis Montauge Schilling, baby. Jimmy Piersall. And Bonny Prince Charles.

59. Chase Utley, Shooty's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) posted on June 10, 2010 at 06:07 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Jan 3rd:
Players with 10 years or more in MLB:
AJ Burnett
Luis Sojo
Luis Rivera
Darren Daulton
Gary Lavelle
Sid Hudson
Frenchy Bordagaray
Gus Suhr
Barney Gilligan

Buzz Arlett for Minor League credit

NBA yields Buck Williams

NFL I've got Jim Everett and Eli Manning

NHL is Bobby Hull and Rick MacLeish

60. Der Komminsk-sar posted on June 10, 2010 at 06:29 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Like many here, I've got a few greats [2 HOF (one inner-circle), one HOM, + a HOF manager], then a dropoff. Middie infield is terrible, bullpen weak, and I need another outfielder or two (Jose Tabata may eventually help here).

Lineup: LF Lew Ford, C Ray Schalk, 3B Harlond Clift, 1B Don Hurst, CF Ellis Burton, RF/utility P Watty Lee, DH Tony Longmire, MI Kent Anderson, MI Luis Ordaz
Bench: Buncha terrible.
Rotation: Big Six, Bob Buhl, Fred Hutchinson, Matt Clement not of Alexandria, Ken McBride
Bullpen: Gene Stechschulte, Barry Manuel, Reggie Harris, Dean Hartgraves, various other scrubs and 19th/early 20th century guys
Mgr - Fred Hutchinson

61. Comic Strip Person posted on June 10, 2010 at 07:09 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I just read the wikipedia entry for Karl Spooner. Wow, that sucks.

62. kthejoker posted on June 10, 2010 at 07:11 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

Sep 1:

P: David West
C: Joe Astroth
1b: Rico Carty
2b: Rob Wilfong
SS: Jim O'Rourke
3B: Kevin Orie
LF: Joe Marty
CF: Garry Maddox
RF: Darby O'Brien

Pretty dismal lineup outside of O'Rourke and Carty, and David West is the best I can do on the mound, but 3 centerfielders in the outfield at least gives us some defensive guff.

63. Sunday silence posted on June 10, 2010 at 07:55 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I got Caminiti; AL Bumbry, Jesse Orosco and Gary Peters.

Leader: Queen Elizabeth II of England.

Mascot: Tony Danza.

64. Willie Mayspedes posted on June 10, 2010 at 08:20 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

July 25th

Pitcher: Doug Drabek
Hitter: Ed Sprague

Best Athlete: Walter Payton
Best Friends: Matt LeBlanc, Joey Tribbiani

Oh and Billy Wagner

65. deputydrew posted on June 11, 2010 at 12:42 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

kthejoker's roster looks quite a bit like mine...

66. eric posted on June 11, 2010 at 07:09 PM # hit 0 | hit 0

I share the same birthdate as Chase Utley.

He might have the lead in lifetime accomplishments at the moment, but I'm gaining, darnit.

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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

ESPN: Szymborski: Projecting the AL Standings (INSIDER)

Reader Comments and Retorts

Zips Think Factory