Wednesday, March 27, 2013
ESPN: Szymborski: Projecting the AL Standings (INSIDER)
(bit.ly)
posted on March 27, 2013 at 07:36 PM by DJ Funky and the Smile Time Variety Players to espn, sabermetrics, zips
|
113 comment(s)
Seasons are simulated a million times using a Monte Carlo method, the percentile performance of player projections and estimates of roster construction. There are other bits of mathematical nerdery involved (linear algebra for the win!), but I’m sure you want to get down to the results, so here we go.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Dan SzymborskiHoefully the Daniel/Voros bit is fixed.
Even with umm's and sweat I would want to hear it from the horses mouth.
Eventually I'll overcome that psychological hurdle, I imagine. Luckily this time, there was short notice and Dave's all set up for them already.
Luckily, Dave's a young and healthy fella otherwise, which certainly can't hurt in recovering from treatment.
It was Dave's illness that got me to cut back on the drinking and eating better. Back in the mid-late-90s, Dave and I were the young guys in sabermetrics and seeing him come down with such a nasty illness was quite a reminder of my own mortality. My dad was young when he died (48), but that didn't really serve to hit home the same point as he was obviously a few decades older than me.
I don't think that sentence means what you think it means. ;-)
(Glad to hear it, nonetheless!)
CC is the best sports show on TV, and I'm glad the MLB network is incorporating SABR stuff _and_ old ballplayer stuff. Plus, the show's host's pelt-like hair looks good in HD.
*raises coffee cup, as its only 10AM
I hadn't thought of that, it will be interesting to see how the show changes when there are games to analyze. I tend to be less interested in hypercritical "analysis" of in game strategies though.
I have to say that while I like the show and think it's great that this audience niche is being better served on TV, it's rarely telling me something interesting or new. The one big exception is the interviews with baseball insiders (sabre friendly or otherwise). Having a host engaging those guys in more substantitive topics can be very interesting. A lot of the sabre guys have the Epstein cliche speak down pretty well, but there are enough nuggests to make it interesting. Josh Byrnes talked about the Carlos Quentin acquisition in terms of beating PetCo Park by looking for hitters who hit balls with high velocities off the bat. There's no way he drops that HitF/X tidbit to Harold Reynolds or whomever.
Not to mention analysis of player performance. It seems like player analysis on baseball-centric TV programs has always been treated with kids gloves because the analyst doesn't want to speak too negatively of a player, even if it would be justified. Brian Kenny has so such qualms if the numbers justify it. I can't wait.
Out with it. Will CHC not be around come April?
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.