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Transaction Oracle: Marlins - Sign Reyes

Miami Marlins sign SS Jose Reyes to a 6 year/ $111 million contract (6 years/ $106 with an option of a 7th year at $22 million or a $5 million buyout)

I see several contradictory factors here. First of all, because the Marlins already have Hanley Ramirez under contract one of them loses some of their value. Sure Ramirez could be shifted to center field (the Marlins weakest position last year) or third base ( Dobbs and Bonifacio weren’t bad, but Bonifacio was probably over his head and Dobbs ...

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Ron J Posted: December 06, 2011 at 06:57 PM | 13 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Angels - Acquire Brad Mills

Los Angeles Angels: Acquired LHP Brad Mills from Toronto for C Jeff Mathis.

Well. It’s the only way I can think of to keep Mike Scioscia from playing Mathis more than his talents objectively merit. Unless of course the move means that Scioscia (who—fair or not—is often viewed as the de facto GM of the Angels) has reconsidered Mathis’ actual value.

Mathis won’t play much in Toronto. He’s arbitration eligible and I doubt the Blue Jays fear going to arbitration with him. The only problem from ...

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Ron J Posted: December 04, 2011 at 02:44 PM | 8 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Royal - Sign Broxton

Kansas City Royals sign reliever Jonathan Broxton to a 1 year/$4 million contract (with $1 million in bonuses based on appearances—sorry no details)

It’s an interesting signing for a couple of reasons. Not that he had a great deal of choice as to the general nature of the contract, but it’s a sensible choice for Broxton. If he’s back to something approaching the form of 2006-2009 (always possible though I’d bet against it. The history of pure power pitchers in their early 30s coming off major ...

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Ron J Posted: December 01, 2011 at 02:20 PM | 14 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

While the inclusion of Carlos Beltran and to a lesser extent, Cody Ross, makes the offense look better than it is, it’s not really quite as bad as finishing last in the NL would have you

believe.  There’s solid front-line talent, mostly under 30 (practically a toddler by Sabean years) and the biggest problem was getting that talent to stay on the field.  Thanks to injuries

to the team’s two best players, one serious (Posey) and one annoying (Sandoval) and the Ghost of Outfielders Past ...

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2011 at 09:17 PM | 34 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

The 2011 season for the Mariners was less disappointing than 2010, though mostly because the expectations were significantly lower going into this year. The Mariners didn't have a whole lot in the way of pleasant surprises as none of the possible bouncebacks really bounced back and most of the legacy prospects (the older prospects that have been hanging onto the second tier on the prospect lists for a few years) didn't take any steps forward. That Vincent Catricala, who's not really a ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 27, 2011 at 08:23 PM | 42 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Angels

Like the last team projected (White Sox), it's very interesting to see what route the White Sox take this winter. Despite ZiPS' favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout, the Angels have a pretty low upside offense, with Hunter and Abreu starting to show their age and a lot of average-ish players that aren't problems, but not exactly feared middle-of-the-order guys. The Angels think they have surplus outfielders, but they really don't. The Angels led the AL in ERA, but that's also top-heavy ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2011 at 01:51 AM | 17 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

That didn't go too well, did it? The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they can really handle nasty surprises. In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6 bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2011 at 07:27 PM | 21 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Dodgers - Signed Mark Ellis

Los Angles Dodgers sign 2B Mark Ellis to a 2 year $8.75 million contract (team option for a third year at $5.75 with a $1 million buyout) I'm never going to love the signing of an aging mid-tier player. Particularly not one with plenty of problems staying in the lineup. Still, it's a move that makes all kinds of sense. First of all, the best option in the organization seems to have been Ivan DeJesus. He had a good year by his standards in AAA last year and it translates to .246/.314/.322. ...Read More...
Ron J Posted: November 15, 2011 at 08:28 PM | 5 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Phillies - Signed Jonathan Papelbon

Philadelphia Phillies sign DSA Jonathan Papelbon to a four year/ $50 million contract Fifth year vests based on games finished. Forgive the delay, but I wasn't sure whether I'd have to substitute Heath Bell. Or Hoyt Wilhelm. The writeup would be slightly different in each case. It's an argument that I have no chance of winning, but some windmills need to be tilted at. I'm referring to the DSA. Stands for Designated Save Accumulator. I've said many times that you are volunteering to pay a ...Read More...
Ron J Posted: November 12, 2011 at 11:00 AM | 7 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2011 ZiPS Minor League Translations Final

No complaints, so I'm upgrading it to "final" status. If you've already downloaded it, you don't need to again.

New URL for the CSVs

Pitchers
Hitters

As a reminder, these are translations, not projections and subject to the same pitfalls as any seasonal line is.

Any errors, omissions, or other questions, feel free to ask.

For those that don't remember, I have two flavors, one with no $H regression and one with mild $H regression. I post the latter one as people have found it more useful ...

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 11, 2011 at 07:09 PM | 2 comment(s)
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