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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

While the inclusion of Carlos Beltran and to a lesser extent, Cody Ross, makes the offense look better than it is, it’s not really quite as bad as finishing last in the NL would have you

believe.  There’s solid front-line talent, mostly under 30 (practically a toddler by Sabean years) and the biggest problem was getting that talent to stay on the field.  Thanks to injuries

to the team’s two best players, one serious (Posey) and one annoying (Sandoval) and the Ghost of Outfielders Past ...

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:17 PM | 34 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

The 2011 season for the Mariners was less disappointing than 2010, though mostly because the expectations were significantly lower going into this year. The Mariners didn't have a whole lot in the way of pleasant surprises as none of the possible bouncebacks really bounced back and most of the legacy prospects (the older prospects that have been hanging onto the second tier on the prospect lists for a few years) didn't take any steps forward. That Vincent Catricala, who's not really a ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 27, 2011 at 07:23 PM | 42 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Angels

Like the last team projected (White Sox), it's very interesting to see what route the White Sox take this winter. Despite ZiPS' favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout, the Angels have a pretty low upside offense, with Hunter and Abreu starting to show their age and a lot of average-ish players that aren't problems, but not exactly feared middle-of-the-order guys. The Angels think they have surplus outfielders, but they really don't. The Angels led the AL in ERA, but that's also top-heavy ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2011 at 12:51 AM | 17 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

That didn't go too well, did it? The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they can really handle nasty surprises. In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6 bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2011 at 06:27 PM | 21 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Dodgers - Signed Mark Ellis

Los Angles Dodgers sign 2B Mark Ellis to a 2 year $8.75 million contract (team option for a third year at $5.75 with a $1 million buyout) I'm never going to love the signing of an aging mid-tier player. Particularly not one with plenty of problems staying in the lineup. Still, it's a move that makes all kinds of sense. First of all, the best option in the organization seems to have been Ivan DeJesus. He had a good year by his standards in AAA last year and it translates to .246/.314/.322. ...Read More...
Ron J Posted: November 15, 2011 at 07:28 PM | 5 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Phillies - Signed Jonathan Papelbon

Philadelphia Phillies sign DSA Jonathan Papelbon to a four year/ $50 million contract Fifth year vests based on games finished. Forgive the delay, but I wasn't sure whether I'd have to substitute Heath Bell. Or Hoyt Wilhelm. The writeup would be slightly different in each case. It's an argument that I have no chance of winning, but some windmills need to be tilted at. I'm referring to the DSA. Stands for Designated Save Accumulator. I've said many times that you are volunteering to pay a ...Read More...
Ron J Posted: November 12, 2011 at 10:00 AM | 7 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2011 ZiPS Minor League Translations Final

No complaints, so I'm upgrading it to "final" status. If you've already downloaded it, you don't need to again.

New URL for the CSVs

Pitchers
Hitters

As a reminder, these are translations, not projections and subject to the same pitfalls as any seasonal line is.

Any errors, omissions, or other questions, feel free to ask.

For those that don't remember, I have two flavors, one with no $H regression and one with mild $H regression. I post the latter one as people have found it more useful ...

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 11, 2011 at 06:09 PM | 2 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The Tigers aren't really a 95-win team - there are a lot more players likely to have worse seasons than better in 2012 - but while the Tigers would have an issue repeating in the AL East, there aren't any teams in the AL Central that are all that scary. The team's top-heavy and has some depth issues that need to be taken care of prior to the season as they can't simply enter another season with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Ryan Raburn is a Plan B or C starter, not a Plan A one.

Another starter ...

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Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2011 at 06:23 PM | 33 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Royals - Acquired Sanchez

Kansas City Royals - Acquired P Jonathan Sanchez and P Ryan Verdugo from the San Francisco Giants for OF Melky Cabrera.

I count many Giant fans as friends. I can't imagine that any of them are happy at the moment. If the name Aaron Rowand doesn't come up in discussing this trade I'd be shocked.

Strictly on the basis of play in 2011 the Giants get the better of this deal, but that's a silly basis to make the deal. Cabrera is young enough that his excellent play last year could be a new talent ...

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Ron J Posted: November 07, 2011 at 07:43 PM | 35 comment(s)
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Transaction Oracle: Phillies Sign Thome

Philadelphia Phillies sign 1B/DH/PH/3B (I kid) to a one year/ $1.25 million contract. I'm slightly surprised that he's coming back.That last appearance for the Indians at third base seemed like such a nice ending to one heck of a ride. But the man can still hit and I'd much rather have Thome as Ryan Howard insurance, DH in the AL games (and if all goes according to plan, the World Series) and primary pinch-hitter than Ross Gload for instance. Yes, Thome comes with issues. Can he still handle ...Read More...
Ron J Posted: November 05, 2011 at 08:24 PM | 15 comment(s)
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