BBTF's Notes in a Minor Key Discussion

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1. i'm not STEAGLES and you shouldn't be either Posted: June 04, 2008 at 11:51 PM (#2806146)

yo mike, as a philadelphian, i'm pretty heavily on the bandwagon of tyson ross, tyler sample, and zach putnam. why do you think these three pitchers will fall out of the first round proper?

i know that ross lacks leg drive, and putnam is a wide load, and sample lacks helium, but i really get the feeling that all three will have very good, very long careers.

why does noone else see what i see, and where can i find the ear of someone who would change that?

2. Dr Love Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:16 AM (#2806171)

As someone who doesn't follow the draft much, I must say it was incredibly confusing to be watching the Georgia/Georgia Tech game and see the SS from Georgia named Beckham who has pretty good numbers and then find out that he's not the SS from Georgia named Beckham that looks to go #1.

3. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:32 AM (#2806187)

1. (TB)- Beckham (Tim)
2. (PITT)- Petey
3. (KC)- Buster Posey
4. (BALT)- Brian Matusz
5. (SF)- Yolander Alonso
6. (FLA)- Kyle Skipworth
7. (CIN)- Gordon Beckham
8. (CWS)- Eric Hosmer
9. (WAS)- Justin Smoak
10. (HOU)- Shooter Hunt
11. (TEX)- Andrew Cashner
12. (OAK)- Aaron Hicks
13. (STL)- Aaron Crow
14. (MIN)- Christian Friedrich
15. (LAD)- Ethan Martin
16. (MIL)- Anthony Hewitt
17. (TOR)- Brett Wallace
18. (NYM)- Jason Castro
19. (CHC)- Casey Kelly
20. (SEA)- Brett Lawrie
21. (DET)- Josh Fields
22. (NYM)- Jake Odorizzi
23. (SD)- Jemile Weeks
24. (PHI)- Destin Hood
25. (COL)- Gerrit Cole
26. (ARI)- Conar Gillespie
27. (MIN)- Ross Seaton
28. (MFY)- Kyle Lobstein
29. (CLE)- David Cooper
30. (BOS) Reese Havens

4. Dr Love Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:34 AM (#2806191)

Hey, at least my mistaken Beckham is a close #2.

5. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:42 AM (#2806211)

26. (ARI)- Conar Gillespie

Who is he? Does it matter... Can he play in LF?

28. (MFY)- Kyle Lobstein

A very unfortunate name for a pitcher.

30. (BOS) Reese Havens

Better intangibles than Dustin Pedroia?

6. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:43 AM (#2806214)

26. Arizona: Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU

This pick, if it pans out, I like. I doubt he falls that low

7. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:44 AM (#2806220)

Temple, is that a projection, or what you would do?

If Lawrie falls to the Brewers at 16, I certainly hope they take him and not Hewitt.

8. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2806225)

Projection

9. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:56 AM (#2806236)

Why Alonso over Smoak for the Giants?

10. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:58 AM (#2806239)

No reason, just a gut-feeling. Could be dead wrong.

11. MM1f Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#2806247)

I love Clayton Shunick for someone in the second round. Solid (90-92) fastball with sink. Nice splitter. Throws strikes. Tough to hit

Blake Tekotte, Miami CF, has gap power, very good speed and makes good contact. Probably the most underrated player on that great team.

Other later round sleepers I like:
Ryan Wood, 2b-SS, ECU
Blake Murphy, C, WCU
Greg Miclat, SS, UVA (probably doesn't go pro til next year)
Michael Palazone, RHP, GA (ok, not really a later round sleeper but he will be good if healthy)
Curt Smith, UT, Maine (if hes in shape)
David Sappellt, CF, Coastal
Drew Poulk, CF, St Petersburg JC

The list isn't meant to look so regionally biased.. its just that those are the teams I get to see

12. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:17 AM (#2806271)

I hope the Brewers draft Scott Gorgen with one of their six picks among the supplemental and second rounds.

13. Kyle S Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:03 AM (#2806330)

just want to congratulate pirates fans now that it seems apparent (i think) that they are going to draft alvarez. it must feel good to have someone competent running the show, even if alvarez never gets a hit in his professional career.

14. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:07 AM (#2806337)

True that. Though Cutch is looking like a top 10 prospect in baseball right now.

15. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:08 AM (#2806339)

How much should the Ray's current position affect their draft? Is there a sure enough college bat or arm that they could pass up a bigger upside for immediate impact if that immediate impact meant a better chance in 2009-2010? They have a great chance to establish themselves in the next two or three years. A lot of suppositions, I realize.

16. Nate Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:22 AM (#2806367)

How much should the Ray's current position affect their draft? Is there a sure enough college bat or arm that they could pass up a bigger upside for immediate impact if that immediate impact meant a better chance in 2009-2010? They have a great chance to establish themselves in the next two or three years. A lot of suppositions, I realize.

I think it should a little. If it's down to two players, and you have them close in value, then take the one that fits into a 2010-2012 title run. In this case that's Posey. I expect that's where they'll end up.

17. Sparkles Peterson Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:23 AM (#2806373)

I wonder if teams see Gillaspie as a first rounder. Sounds like a lot of scouts are split on whether his upside is Bill Mueller or Sean Burroughs.

18. Russ Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:43 AM (#2806456)

True that. Though Cutch is looking like a top 10 prospect in baseball right now.

The Pirates have a great problem right now, in that they could trade either Bay or Nady, get decent return, and break even on the OF offense+defense by sliding Nate from CF to either LF or RF.

19. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:27 AM (#2806527)

Nick Piecoro: With the 26th pick in the 2008 draft ...

An interesting player I heard the Diamondbacks like is Destin Hood, an outfielder out of Mobile, Ala., who has committed to play football at Alabama. I’ve read where his dad says if he gets drafted where he’s supposed to – i.e., first round – he would sign. Apparently he’s one of those super toolsy types with a high ceiling.

Another player along the same lines who the Diamondbacks are said to have shown interest in is Anthony Gose out of Bellflower, Calif. He apparently has an upper-90s fastball from the left side and plays the outfield. Thing with him, though, is he doesn’t want to pitch, and people are saying he hasn’t shown enough with the bat to convince teams he can hit pro pitching.

The Diamondbacks have also been connected to the Arizona State guys, but Brett Wallace almost certainly won’t be available, and Ike Davis could be gone, too.

South Carolina shortstop Reese Havens could make some sense, as well as Vanderbilt shortstop Ryan Flaherty.

Oh no, Red Sox mad if Dbacks take Pedroia^2

20. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 08:28 AM (#2806556)

Knowing the Royals draft history, they're going to pick another third baseman.

Is Buster Posey strong like bull? this is an important piece of information I need to know before the draft starts.

21. NTNgod Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:16 AM (#2806558)

Is Buster Posey strong like bull? this is an important piece of information I need to know before the draft starts.

There can be only one Angel Salome!
(.377/.414/.580 in 138 AA at-bats this season)

22. NTNgod Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:53 AM (#2806564)

Deep from bowels of Archive.org (since June 2004 isn't available on-site), I've dug up the 2004 Draft Thread:
post 45 on the page is I believe the first STRONG LIKE BULL reference.

23. OCD SS Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2806576)

Do I have any rational basis for really liking Havens and not liking Jemile Weeks at all? From his (Weeks') scouting reports I don't see why he's been consistently rated so highly compared to some of the draft's other middle infielders.

24. andrewberg Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:37 PM (#2806586)

Why can't we have a baseball draft combine? My two favorite parts, in order, about the football and basketball drafts are:
1) Finding out who can't do one rep of the bench press (225 for nfl and 185 for nba) and mercilessly making fun of that player forever, especially when that player is Luke Ridnour.
2) Reading that a player is a "freak" or a "physical specimen" and seeing his mock draft position jump by 10-15 spots.

25. OCD SS Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:40 PM (#2806591)

Why can't we have a baseball draft combine?

All this stuff should be done at the private work outs, and then posted on the internet.

26. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:44 PM (#2806592)

Who are the guys most likely to slide because of signability issues? Hosmer? Anyone else?

27. andrewberg Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:48 PM (#2806594)

Who doesn't want to know Prince Fielder's time in the 100 yard dash? Who doesn't want to know Tim Lincecum's height without shoes? Who doesn't want to know what Petunia can bench press? What are the odds that the answer to the first question (in seconds) is greater than the answer to the third (in pounds)?

For the record, my guesses: 21 seconds, 5'9, 155 lbs

Might those be the median stats for the primates?

28. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2806596)

Is the draft open to the public? Can you buy tickets or something? I live 20 minutes from the draft site and have no idea if you can drive over and watch.

Then again, it's a Thursday during the tourist season. I might be better watching on TV.

29. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: June 05, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2806597)

Never mind...found my answer. Free tickets on a 1st come/1st serve basis. Doors open at 12:15pm.

30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:09 PM (#2806602)

"Who are the guys most likely to slide because of signability issues? Hosmer? Anyone else?"

Behold!

31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:11 PM (#2806606)

"just want to congratulate pirates fans now that it seems apparent (i think) that they are going to draft alvarez. it must feel good to have someone competent running the show, even if alvarez never gets a hit in his professional career."

Taking Alvarez is something of a damage-control pick, PR-wise. It's possible that they're going to do the right thing through the whole draft, but I'm not going to count on that until I see it happen.

32. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#2806627)

Taking Alvarez is something of a damage-control pick, PR-wise.

I agree. They should take Hosmer, as I said above, because he's exactly what they need and don't have. But Hosmer is represented by Boras, so there's no chance.

What I think will actually happen:

Rays: T Beckham
Pirates: Alvarez
Royals: Hosmer
Orioles: Matusz
Giants: Smoak
Marlins: Posey
Reds: Crow
White Sox: Castro
Nationals: Skipworth

Then it's a crapshoot.

-- MWE

33. andrewberg Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#2806640)

I think Posey will go to SF if he's there. Skipworth to the Marlins seems like a foregone conclusion. If that means Smoak stays on the board, I think Washington takes him. Otherwise, I agree with your projections. If there was a confidence rating, I would say Matusz to Bal is at the top, Crow to Cin close behind it.

34. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 01:56 PM (#2806656)

IMO:

Ross is an injury waiting to happen.

Putnam's secondary stuff needs a LOT of work, plus there are questions about his commitment (not wanting to do anything but DH in the Cape Cod League last summer, for example).

Sample is still wildly inconsistent - when he's off, he's WAY off, losing 8-10 MPH off his fastball and struggling with location (he was somewhat hittable for an elite pitcher, and he walked way too many hitters for someone with his stuff). Granted, that may still be part of the process of recovery from TJ surgery two years ago, but still.

Supplemental rounders, all, in my book.

-- MWE

35. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2806659)

If Posey goes to SF, Skipworth will go to the Marlins, for sure - and there's a good chance at that point that Smoak will drop out of the top 10. The White Sox have been looking long and hard at Castro, the Nationals would likely opt for Gordon Beckham or pitching, and the Astros are looking at pitching (Friedrich, Hunt, or Perry).

-- MWE

36. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2806664)

"...there's a good chance at that point that Smoak will drop out of the top 10"

Which is, in my mind, absolutely crazy. He's going to make a lot of the teams that passed on him look stupid.

37. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2806665)

I will say this, too: Minaya will take a college pitcher with at least one of the two first-rounders.

-- MWE

38. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:04 PM (#2806668)

"For the record, my guesses: 21 seconds, 5'9, 155 lbs"

For me: A few steps behind Prince, 5'7", 225 lbs.

39. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2806669)

I used to have a max bench of 250, but then I had to take some time off from lifting after surgery, and I still haven't gotten it all the way back yet. It sucks...

40. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:10 PM (#2806675)

Well, I want to see Smoak hit somewhere besides Sarge Frye Field before I get on that bandwagon. I think there's an equal chance he'll disappoint whoever picks him as that he'll make someone look stupid. His upside is where Matt LaPorta is now, IMO.

-- MWE

41. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#2806678)

"Well, I want to see Smoak hit somewhere besides Sarge Frye Field before I get on that bandwagon."

Cape Cod League?

42. AJM Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:33 PM (#2806692)

Anyplace I can read about these guys for free?

43. Kyle S at work Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:40 PM (#2806699)

Matt LaPorta now is a top 10 prospect, IMO.

44. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:41 PM (#2806700)

"Anyplace I can read about these guys for free?"

Lots of scouting reports here (pick names in the dropdown box to the left of the photo).

Some capsules also here.

45. Kyle S at work Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2806705)

MinorLeagueBall.com has a lot of information on the draft.

46. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2806717)

Anyplace I can read about these guys for free?

Draft reports from mlb.com
Draft tracker

47. AJM Posted: June 05, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2806727)

Cool, thanks guys.

48. JPWF13

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#2806767)

I will say this, too: Minaya will take a college pitcher with at least one of the two first-rounders.

-- MWE

You hate us Met fans don't you?

49. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2806769)

Gotta tell ya fellas.... I mean, this is uber exciting. I wish I would've had the draft videos up last year before the draft and it would've been so...just cool. Here's hoping that my 3-5 top guys falls to us somehow (unlikely as it may seem). This'll be fun.

50. Nate Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#2806784)

And who are those top 3-5 guys CBW? Maybe after the draft you'll mention?

51. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2806789)

CBW, you allowed to talk about scouting these guys at all, or would that give you trouble at work?

52. Cabbage Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2806809)

There can be only one Angel Salome!
(.377/.414/.580 in 138 AA at-bats this season)

Wo ist Salome?

53. Sparkles Peterson Posted: June 05, 2008 at 03:52 PM (#2806820)

Or maybe some new guy named PatNeshekWannabe could come along and break down a select few draftees' mechanics...

54. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 05, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2806939)

CBW, you allowed to talk about scouting these guys at all, or would that give you trouble at work?

Can't do it, my apologies.

55. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:01 PM (#2806943)

Will say this. The draft thing that I did last year would've been much more interesting to do it pre-draft rather than post-draft...much more than last year (though I say that b/c I'm more emotionally involved this year)

56. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2807061)

I will say this, too: Minaya will take a college pitcher with at least one of the two first-rounders.

there's a Hispanic college pitcher out there?

57. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: June 05, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#2807113)

Is CBW working for the Braves or someone else?

if it's the Braves, then they'll use their picks on guys like Casey Wayne Baker from Rabun County High School

58. Kyle S at work Posted: June 05, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2807146)

He's working for the Diamondbacks.

59. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 06:22 PM (#2807170)

You hate us Met fans don't you?

Not really. Minaya has drafted a college pitcher with his first draft pick in every season he's been a GM.

-- MWE

60. JPWF13

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2807323)

Not really. Minaya has drafted a college pitcher with his first draft pick in every season he's been a GM.

-- MWE

but there was no need to remind us

61. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: June 05, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#2807612)

So if Az drafts any Ga/Al high school player, we attribute it to CBW?

62. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: June 05, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2807742)

No. I have nothing to do w/ the amateur draft. I'm a fan today as well.

63. i'm not STEAGLES and you shouldn't be either Posted: June 05, 2008 at 08:33 PM (#2807879)

here's a project for you, CBW.

64. Chris Dial Posted: June 05, 2008 at 08:39 PM (#2807897)

I will say this, too: Minaya will take a college pitcher with at least one of the two first-rounders.

Oops.

65. Mike Emeigh

Posted: June 05, 2008 at 08:59 PM (#2807970)

Wrong again :)

-- MWE

66. Sparkles Peterson Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2807985)

I wish CBW was free to comment on Schlereth, because I imagine he would have a whole hell of a lot to say.

67. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#2807993)

So how come the Yankees can repeatedly break guidelines for slot payments and still get the ASG?
And loans for their new stadium...

Why can't any other team take a flyer on Cole instead of drafting college relievers?

68. Chris Dial Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:15 PM (#2808021)

I was pleased with Keith Law's review of Reese. From what I have watched, he does a great job reviewing the selections.

69. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: June 05, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#2808070)

I don't think Met BTFers are going to be happy with Minaya's third pick, Bradley Holt. College pitcher with mediocre numbers, including having allowed 14 homers in 76.1 IP in his last season.

70. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 06, 2008 at 12:00 AM (#2808396)

Why is Isaac Galloway in free-fall?

71. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 06, 2008 at 12:19 AM (#2808438)

Don't know. He must've indicated that he didn't want to sign, or wanted too much $$.

He's certainly draft-worthy.

72. Mark S. Posted: June 06, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2809640)

Why is Isaac Galloway in free-fall?

Drafted in the 8th round by Florida (#238 overall).

73. Pennants fly forever Posted: June 06, 2008 at 08:54 PM (#2810056)

Sorry to hijack the thread, but I was spending a few minutes time looking at the performances of the 07 MLB draft class and I think Sabean is true to form..the pitchers are doing fine, e.g., Bumgarner has been excellent at Class A at the age of 18 (!), Alderson, only 19, is pitching very well at San Jose also, but the high draft position players (Jackson Williams, Noonan, Culberson) are struggling. Add that to the likes of Cain, Sanchez,Lincecum, Brian Wilson, etc. doing fine in the bigs and the struggles of the young position players and it's a familiar pattern.

I'm not a Giants fan, so I'm more interested in the "GM platoon differential" that is so strong for Sabean and his development team - you wonder if a more creative org structure might not find ways to be aware of this and compensate accordingly. i.e.,: (1)Minor league 'challenge' trades of pitchers for hitters (2) Hiring more scouts who are good at position player ID (3) Identify where the instruction gaps are for the hitters?

If Sabean does get the axe, a big budget team might do a lot worse than to throw some money at him as a consultant or VP of Player Development to determine what his scouting and development secrets are on the pitching side. (and laugh when he mentions the position guys).

74. obsessivegiantscompulsive Posted: June 09, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#2812749)

Whitey's Ghost: Sabean hired a new person to handle the draft for the Giants, John Barr, who helped the Dodgers select Russell Martin. So they have already made the move to focus more on position players internally in the management ranks.

You say struggles, and while it's true most are struggling, Fred Lewis is hitting .824 OPS, 115 OPS+, in a starting role, so I wouldn't call that a struggle. And the vast majority of talent comes from 1st round picks and with their focus on pitching for years now, it's not surprising that their position players tend to struggle in the majors, the vast majority of position players who were drafted after the first round for any team you want to look at struggle in the majors, there is that huge a hurdle, both talent-wise in terms of availability to be selected later and in adjusting to being a professional and playing in the majors.

Heck, that holds true for picks outside the top 10 overall, the vast majority of picks (80%+) after the top 5-10 (varies by year) are not good enough to play well and make it into their free agency years, my draft study showed that.

And you say trading pitching for hitting like it was that easy. How easy could it be when the best anyone could offer the Giants during the off-season for Lincecum was Alex Rios? Doesn't that look like a stupid offer today?

75. JPWF13

Posted: June 09, 2008 at 03:28 PM (#2812756)

You say struggles, and while it's true most are struggling, Fred Lewis is hitting .824 OPS, 115 OPS+, in a starting role, so I wouldn't call that a struggle.

He's 27 and peaking
think Benny Agbayani 1999/2000
Jason Lane 2005
MArvin Bernard 1998/99

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