What's wrong with Butler besides defense? He was only 20 last year and put up .331/.388/.499 in AA.

Let me comment on the second part of that statement first.

Whether we know it or not, we always rely on an unstated assumption regarding player development - young players will get better. Hence, Billy Butler's performance line at age 20 at AAA sticks out, because he performed extremely well at a young age, when he is still going to get better. And for some people, that's where prospect evaluation stops. They don't go beyond the performance/age combination.

But what happens if the player - for whatever reason - does not have room for improvement, even at age 20? What happens if Billy Butler, at age 20, is as good as he is ever going to get? If Billy Butler gets to the majors and fails to produce to the level that we expect of a 20-YO with his performance record to date, what happens? What usually happens then:

1. someone, somewhere, will say: "They never gave him a fair chance".
2. someone, somewhere, will be clamoring for their team to pick him up and "give him a fair chance - remember what he did at age 20"?

and they'll ignore the possibility that maybe, just maybe, what he did at age 20 represented the best that he could ever have done.

Now I have no way of knowing what will happen with Billy Butler. But I have reservations about him for a couple of reasons:

-- He is not a good defensive player, which means that if he isn't hitting, he'll have no value and his teams will be more inclined to give up on him.
-- He is not a particularly good athlete, which suggests that it might be difficult for him to make timely adjustments.
-- His numbers against RHP a year ago were pretty ordinary; he mashed LHP but barely broke .800 OPS against RHP.

None of these are necessarily indicative of something being wrong. But they're things that make me step back a bit and take a longer look. So when I make the comment that I did, it's not necessarily a sign that Butler's on the fast track to oblivion, and shouldn't be taken that way. To me, what I see are indicators that Butler might not have as much growth in front of him as does the typical prospect.

-- MWE

As an A's fan, I would term the farm depressing simply because of the types of players the A's bring in. There just aren't a lot of guys in the system to dream about "what could be." Herrera was like that, and hopefully he can recover some of that luster. But getting busted for PEDs kind of threw water on him.

The team has started diving back in with some HS players, but Italiano and Lansford haven't done anything to make one hopeful.

I like Sulentic a lot.

Mike, didn't the Angels sign Trembo (the 3b/P) a year ago? By BA's logic, shouldn't he make this list?

Well, Trumbo has played, and hasn't played particularly well (discipline! discipline! he must develop plate discipline!). Interestingly, last year he hit pretty damn well with runners on base, and even limited his strikeouts in those situations, but was a total disaster with no on one. He's pretty raw, but he has plenty of time to get it together.

I estimate Trumbo had an OPS+ of around 124 with men on last year (his league had a 106 OPS+ in those situations), and he only struck out in 15.8% of his PA with men on where the league struck out 19.5% overall and 18.6% in those situations. I don't know if there's something about his approach that changes in situations, or if it's just random chance. The latter is probably more likely, but I certainly hope there's something to the former ...

Seattle and Texas have been posted, completing the AL.

I don't have a lot to say about the Mariners' prospects. Carlos Triunfel, the teenage SS from the DR signed as a UDFA by Seattle last year, was very impressive in instructional league and might open his professional career in Wisconsin in 2007; he could be better than anyone who actually got rated top-10, although Callis cautiously slotted him at #11.

As for the Rangers: lots of good young arms, all with question marks attached, and almost no hitters with upside. I don't have a really good feel for this group; I can't really put a finger on anything, but I would not be at all surprised if Texas winds up getting very little out of DVD and Hurley.

-- MWE

Braves are up.

I didn't know where else to ask this, so thought I'd just stick it here and see if anyone happens to notice.

Does anyone know of a study reviewing BA's top 100 rankings over the years, showing what percentage of top 10's, top 50's or top 100's made it to the majors, and how they produced?

If you happen to know of such a study, please send me an e mail or post the link here, I'll check back over the next couple of days.

Thanks.