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Monday, May 02, 2016

Improving Projections with Exit Velocity – The Hardball Times

When used in conjunction with Steamer, the impact of exit velocity was still significant, both statistically and practically. We can expect a hitter to outperform his Steamer projected wOBA by roughly three points for each mph of previous-season exit velocity. (We found a similar effect when using either ZiPS projections or an average of ZiPS and Steamer.)

Jim Furtado Posted: May 02, 2016 at 08:32 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, statcast

10 Degrees: Is a juiced ball causing MLB’s large home run spike? - Yahoo Sports

At the risk of sounding like someone who believes in chemtrails and listens to Infowars religiously, I have a confession to make: More and more I’m convinced that juiced balls are causing a home run spike throughout baseball.

I am far from the only one. It’s hitters and pitchers and coaches and executives and even rational, cogent analysts who cannot find a reasonable explanation for the spike in home runs dating back to last August. The HR/FB rate – the percentage of fly balls that end ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: May 02, 2016 at 08:17 AM | 47 comment(s)
  Beats: baseball

OTP 2016 May 2: The Anti-Moneyball Election

But these are not the campaigns that people will study, looking back at 2016. The surprises came from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump campaigns, which followed completely different models. They have broader, more emotional appeals to voters, rather than trying to slice the electorate into ever-narrowing segments (which have been the source for a generation of condescending consultant-speak: Bill Clinton’s soccer moms, George W. Bush’s security moms, and so on). They are running ...

Read More...
Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant Posted: May 02, 2016 at 07:18 AM | 636 comment(s)
  Beats: moneyball, politics

5-2-16 OMNICHATTER

A Dream of OMNICHATTER

Gamingboy Posted: May 02, 2016 at 12:13 AM | 111 comment(s)
  Beats: mlb, omnichatter

Sunday, May 01, 2016

The strange saga of Jose Reyes is nearing an end. But what then? - The Denver Post

“I’d like to know exactly what happened,” Monfort said. “It’s easy for us all to speculate on whatever happened. But until we really know, it’s hard. You’re dealing with a guy’s life.

“But if he did something wrong, he should pay for it.”

How many people don’t agree with his statement? The Commissioner’s Office will find that ascertaining exactly what happened will be difficult, if not impossible, when the witnesses don’t want to testify. ...Read More...

Jim Furtado Posted: May 01, 2016 at 11:47 AM | 106 comment(s)
  Beats: jose reyes, rockies

Exploring how MLB has turned Yankee Stadium against Yankees | New York Post

But what already is entrenched could not be changed. Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira are among the 30 lefty hitters shifted against most often (all shift stats provided by Baseball Info Solutions). No other team had four, and only the Mariners (Adam Lind, Kyle Seager and Seth Smith) had three — and that did not include Robinson Cano, whose ability to hit line-to-line would have kept him effective at Yankee Stadium even in the shift environment.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 01, 2016 at 11:44 AM | 89 comment(s)
  Beats: yankees

MLBTR: Five MLB Players Enter Into Brand Contracts With Fantex

Fantex, Inc. announced today that it has entered into brand contracts with five Major Leaguers: Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco, Astros right-hander Collin McHugh, Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop, Twins right-hander Tyler Duffey and Padres third baseman Yangervis Solarte (as noted on BusinessWire.com).

Fantex offers professional athletes an up-front, one-time payment in exchange for a portion of that player’s future earnings both on and off the field. Fantex then sells ...

Read More...

Replay catches Albert Pujols off bag and costs LA Angels in loss at Texas

ARLINGTON, Texas Somehow, what happened to the Angels and Albert Pujols on Friday night seems so obviously right and obviously wrong at the same time.

The key play in the Angels’ 4-2 loss to the Texas Rangers was an instant replay challenge, resulting in Pujols being called out for barely lifting his foot off the bag while Roughned Odor held a tag on him.

It snuffed out a promising rally, just before the Rangers turned the game around.

(...)It hasn’t always been that way, but since the ...

Read More...
Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: May 01, 2016 at 01:28 AM | 91 comment(s)
  Beats: instant replay, zapruder

5-1-16 OMNICHATTER

While I thank the Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) for bailing me out yesterday, I’m afraid he went in the wrong order and skipped over….

A OMNICHATTER with Dragons

Gamingboy Posted: May 01, 2016 at 12:50 AM | 214 comment(s)
  Beats: mlb, omnichatter

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Who Was Ty Cobb? The History We Know That’s Wrong

But what about Cobb’s 19th-century Southern roots? How could someone born in Georgia in 1886 not be a racist? What I found—and again, not because I am the Babe Ruth of researchers, but because I actually did some research—is that Ty Cobb was descended from a long line of abolitionists. His great-grandfather was a minister who preached against slavery and was run out of town for it. His grandfather refused to fight in the Confederate army because of the slavery issue. And his father was an ...

Read More...
zenbitz Posted: April 30, 2016 at 11:31 PM | 20 comment(s)
  Beats: history, media, racism, ty cobb

Beyond the Boxscore: Joe Mauer is back.

As someone who doesn’t hit for a notable amount of power, the lefty has always seen success through his ability to command the zone and take the ball to all fields, which allowed him to hit for a high average. So when Mauer’s plate discipline profile started to decline, it is no surprise that his overall performance fell as well. Instead of a player who consistently challenged the .300 mark for batting average and .400 mark for on-base percentage, the 2015 version of Joe Mauer batted .265 ...

Read More...
Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 04:50 PM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: concussions, twins

4-30 OMNICHATTER

The Winds of OMNICHATTER.

I get a Syndergnome today!

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 11:30 AM | 107 comment(s)
  Beats: omnichatter

An oral history of Kirk Gibson’s 1988 World Series home run

La Russa:

“So here’s what I thought. I thought, Gibby, he’s hittin’ on one leg. … My thought was, lookit, he’s hurting, I wanted to bring the outfield in because I didn’t think he could hit the ball out of the infield. So I was just trying to protect [against] the bloop. … So I was worried he was going to hit a ground ball through a hole or hit a blooper. So [pitching coach Dave] Duncan says, ‘You know, Steve Sax is on deck. And Eck’ll walk through him like he’s water.’ ...

Read More...

Hardball Times: The Doug Mirabelli Trade, an Oral History

10 years ago this weekend, marked backup catcher and knuckleball whisperer Doug Mirabelli’s return to the Red Sox.

The December prior, the Red Sox sent the 35-year-old Mirabelli — long Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher — to the Padres for second baseman Mark Loretta. They acquired Josh Bard from the Indians (in the Coco Crisp deal) a month later to replace Mirabelli.

April 2006 was a period of adjustment — Mirabelli adjusting to San Diego, Bard to Boston, Wakefield to Bard. It ...

Read More...

MLB Plus: Analytics-driven feed debuts

1. What is MLB Plus?
Orchestrated from both MLB.com Studios and correspondents as well as technical resources at the ballpark, MLB Plus is a new way to enjoy baseball.
MLB Plus will place a real-time emphasis on the numbers and metrics used by many of the game’s current decision-makers, from spin rate and outfield positioning to exit velocity and lead distance. In addition, MLB Plus will supplement the action with videos explaining the technology used and in-depth prospect reports.

2. Who ...

Read More...
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 06:13 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: analytics, fernando perez, statcast

Sherman: How baseball enticed Dee Gordon to use PEDs

Sherman blames everyone for players using PEDs—save the sportswriters who turned a blind eye to the issue during the 90s/00s.

Dee Gordon is the villain in his 80-game suspension. Let’s be upfront about that because I want to talk about the hypocrisy that cushions a villain and propels a villain to do villainous stuff.

Pretty much the only institution in the game that has delivered a strong penalty to those tied to illegal performance enhancers is the Baseball Writers Association of America, ...

Read More...
JEe (Jason) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 06:13 AM | 54 comment(s)
  Beats: dee gordon, peds, sportswriters, steroids, suspensions

Dee Gordon, N.L.‘s Reigning Batting Champion, Gets 80-Game Penalty

One year after an All-Star season that saw him win awards for his hitting and fielding, Major League Baseball has suspended Miami Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon for 80 games because tests found that he used two performance-enhancing drugs.

spanx for the memories Posted: April 30, 2016 at 06:13 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: miami marlins

Astros, Rangers Exploring Carolina League Teams

Well, the cat is out of the bag: The Houston Astros are looking at placing a High A team at a new Fayetteville ballpark, while the Texas Rangers are still eying a team in Kinston, as work progresses on moving two teams from the California League to the Carolina League.

Astros owner Jim Crane was in Fayetteville today to look at ballpark sites, in a move originally scheduled for last Monday (the trip was delayed due to flooding in Houston). And while the whole Cal to Carolina move for the High ...

Read More...
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 30, 2016 at 06:13 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: astros, california league, carolina league, rangers

Friday, April 29, 2016

Pipeline Inbox: 2016 MLB Draft questions | MLB.com

The Draft is just six weeks away and we’re kicking up MLBPipeline.com’s coverage a few notches today by updating and expanding our Top Prospects list to 100. I also wrote an overview of the top talent available, and Jonathan Mayo will break down options for the Phillies with the No. 1 overall pick Friday. On Monday, we’ll both speculate as to how the first 10 choices could unfold. Then on Tuesday, I’ll detail the prospects whose stock has risen and fallen the most since the start of the year.

...Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2016 at 01:48 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: draft, prospects

Minor League Baseball Toolshed: Big week for pitching prospect promotions | MiLB.com

Some good guys on the way. After seeing him pitch a couple of times, I’m very high on Cody Reed.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2016 at 11:30 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: prospects

Someone stole a 14-foot Royals player off a billboard - SBNation.com

Please put it back.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2016 at 11:29 AM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: general

Rough start for MN Twins’ John Ryan Murphy

Murphy’s line-drive rate had dropped to just 7.4 percent, well off his career average (22.1 percent). His flyball rate was 48.1 percent, well above his typical 35.0 percent, and his hard-contact rate had dropped to 17.1 percent from a career mark of 27.1 percent.

This, too, it seems he’d rather not know.

“The way the game is now, there’s probably an overload of information,” he said. “I think every player is a little bit different. You have to understand what works for you and ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2016 at 10:08 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: john ryan murphy, twins

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-29-2016

Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 29, 1916:

Charles Wagner laid down his tools in the riveting department of the Hale & Kilburn plant and munched an apple. The proximity of the Athletics’ ball park stirred him to action.

“Play ball,” he said to a fellow-workman, Daniel Dougherty, as the latter assumed a Ty Cobbesque pose with a hammer as a bat.

He threw the core of the apple toward Dougherty, who, in attempting to single to right, let the hammer slip from his hands. It struck Wagner in ...

Read More...
Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: April 29, 2016 at 08:13 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: bad ideas, dugout, history, stupid ideas

Miami Herald: MLB has suspended Dee Gordon for 80 games after he tested positive for PEDs

Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, the National League’s reigning batting champion, has been suspended 80 games after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs.

The suspension is effective immediately.

An email with the news was sent out at 1:17 a.m. by the commissioner’s office – not long after the Marlins completed a four-game sweep of the Dodgers in Los Angeles with a 5-3 win Thursday.

The statement said Gordon, who signed a five-year, $50 million extension in January, tested ...

Read More...
Tike Redman's Shattered Dreams Posted: April 29, 2016 at 02:02 AM | 60 comment(s)
  Beats: marlins, oops, peds, suspension

4-29-16 OMNICHATTER

A OMNICHATTER of Crows

Gamingboy Posted: April 29, 2016 at 12:15 AM | 212 comment(s)
  Beats: mlb, omnichatter

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Perry: Quintana is Emerging as Second White Sox Ace

In each of the last three full seasons, [Jose Quintana]‘s topped 200 innings and put up a K/BB ratio of 3.41. He’s done that despite over his career pitching almost half his innings in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field and ceding the platoon advantage to 73.7 percent of the batters he’s faced.

As well, Quintana is in his age-27 season at present, so it’s possible his peak has not yet been realized. (His slight bump in fastball and sinker velocity this season, during a month when gun readings ...

Read More...
My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 28, 2016 at 01:06 PM | 21 comment(s)
  Beats: al central, pitching, white sox

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-28-2016

Bemidji Daily Pioneer, April 28, 1916:

BIBLICAL BASEBALL.

Abel made the first hit; Adam and Eve retired on the first double play; Adam was the first man up. Noah on deck; Abel made the first sacrifice; Noah issued the first rain checks; Eve displayed the first curve; Moses took the first team to a training camp; Elijah’s bears were the original cubs; Reuben was caught stealing by Joseph; Joseph was the first player sold; Lazarus died at first; Laban was the first contract jumper; Elijah’s ...

Read More...
Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: April 28, 2016 at 12:00 PM | 28 comment(s)
  Beats: dugout, history

Meet Ronald Herrera, the Yankees’ pet pitching prospect | New York Post

And it is not just the Yankees who appreciate him. This is from an opposing scout: “He is a medium-body right-hander who looks generic as hell. The stuff is not overpowering, but the pitchability and command are both so good. He is so poised, especially for his age. I love his makeup. I love how he mixes pitches. He is a big-league starting pitcher.”

Jim Furtado Posted: April 28, 2016 at 09:44 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: ronald herrera, yankees

Silverman: Red Sox should stick with Steven Wright in rotation | Boston Herald

Steven Wright is the real deal.

Let’s not lose our shirts just because Steven Wright joined Rick Porcello and David Price in the “I, too, shut down the Braves lineup” club last night.

Let’s, however, start banging the drum for Wright to establish permanent residency in the Red Sox rotation.

For a guy who described himself as a starter “by default” just because Eduardo Rodriguez got hurt during spring training, Wright has seized the opportunity to become the most consistent, ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: April 28, 2016 at 09:43 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Beats: red sox, steven wright

Ted Cruz the latest victim of politicians trying to talk sports | NBC SportsWorld

I don’t care about a politicians’ sports opinions. I care even less about the political views of sportswriters.

And no, this isn’t another OTP thread. Frankly, just like I’m sure you don’t care about mine, I don’t care much about your political views either.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 28, 2016 at 09:40 AM | 118 comment(s)
  Beats: politics

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