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Tuesday, December 02, 2014

The Perception and the Market of Star Player Trade Value

As trades of this nature pile up, perhaps we need to consider that it’s not the teams selling the star players who are reading the markets incorrectly, but the public that expects returns above what teams are consistently getting. After all, is it more likely that our perception of a player’s trade value is incorrect, or that Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman, Dave Dombrowski, and Kevin Towers all decided to take inferior offers to what other teams were making?

thetailor Posted: December 02, 2014 at 01:53 PM | 21 comment(s)
  Beats: trades

MLB.com seeking stats stringers - 2015

I’m sure this might interest a few of you.

MLB.com, the official web site of Major League Baseball, is seeking stats stringers to cover these clubs in 2015 and beyond:

Anaheim/Los Angeles
Atlanta
Chicago (both teams)
Cleveland
Detroit
Miami
Oakland/San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis

Stats stringers are responsible for digitally scoring games from the MLB ballparks, which provides the data used in the live content applications on MLB.com, including At-Bat, Gameday and MLB.TV, real-time ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 02, 2014 at 12:16 PM | 32 comment(s)
  Beats: job posting

Zuckerman - Whither Detwiler and Danny

Give ‘em Tender Vittles!

The two question marks, though, would seem to be Ross Detwiler and Danny Espinosa. Each player has seen his stock in the organization fall precipitously over the last couple of years, and neither can be considered a lock to make the 2015 Opening Day roster. The Nationals, then, must decide: 1) Whether to retain Detwiler and Espinosa despite their growing salaries, 2) Whether either player won’t be retained but could be traded for something of value or 3) Whether ...

Read More...
boteman Posted: December 02, 2014 at 10:10 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Beats: arbitration, nationals

Searching for Under-Used Breaking Pitches with PITCHf/x – The Hardball Times

Great stuff.

McHugh threw 47.1 innings with the Mets and Rockies between 2012 and 2013, and his pitch selection looked something like this: 56 percent fastballs, 39 percent breaking balls (curve ball and slider), and five percent change-ups. McHugh relied primarily on his hard stuff, complemented it with some breaking balls, and threw in the occasional change-up, a pretty standard plan of action for a starting pitcher.

The Houston Astros, however, saw something more. Something about those ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 02, 2014 at 08:11 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: pitching, sabermetrics

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-2-2014

Washington Times, December 2, 1914:

The most cruel cut of all for the Feds was the headline “Feds Will Try to Rival Naps in Cleveland.”

Cleveland baseball: More than a century of being a punchline.

Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: December 02, 2014 at 07:52 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: dugout, history, indians

Arbitration Notes: Ogando, Moreland, Russell, Parra, Descalso – MLB Trade Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors has a nice post about tonight’s 11 PM deadline for tending contracts.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 02, 2014 at 06:51 AM | 75 comment(s)
  Beats: economics, non-tenders, rumors

OT: Soccer December 2014

Liverpool striker Mario Balotelli has issued an apology after an image he re-posted on Instagram on Monday led to accusations of racism and anti-Semitism.

Balotelli, 24, shared an image on Monday evening on the social networking site featuring the Nintendo character Mario that included the words “jumps like a black man and grabs coins like a Jew.”

Oh Mario.

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 02, 2014 at 06:27 AM | 302 comment(s)
  Beats: off-topic, soccer

Murray Chass on Baseball: BONDS DREAMS ON AS SUPPORT SLIPS SLIDING AWAY

This is most shocking! No, not the steroid jazz…the fact that Seymour Siwoff’s 1922 Dial Grabaphone is still in working order!

Three other players on the ballot have resumes that are foggier than these five. Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio have never been linked to steroids by anything other than news media mention, but in my view more time is needed to learn more about their past practices.

I voted for Bagwell on his first appearance on the ballot, when he received 41.7 percent of ...

Read More...
Repoz Posted: December 02, 2014 at 04:08 AM | 37 comment(s)
  Beats: hof, steroids

Monday, December 01, 2014

BA: Organization Of The Year: In K.C., Patience Finally Pays

I don’t know what to believe anymore.

“There are parents who have kids now who have no idea what this is like,” Royals assistant general manager J.J. Picollo said. “They didn’t grow up coming to the ballpark. They didn’t want to invest their time or money. That’s all going to change. That’s been probably the most rewarding and impactful thing is how this city is going to embrace baseball again.”

Making it to the World Series by itself wouldn’t have made the Royals Baseball ...

Read More...
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2014 at 03:00 PM | 23 comment(s)
  Beats: baseball america, royals

Marlins make long-term offers to Jose Fernandez, core young players

Checking in on some future Toronto Blue Jays.

In their effort to keep their better young players, the Marlins also have made long-term offers to outfielder Christian Yelich and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, and they’re due to make an offer early this week to outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Perhaps their chances to extend one or more of those fine players is somewhat better than it is with Fernandez, who thus far hasn’t suggested any inclination to do such a long deal so early in his career.

The ...

Read More...

Rosenthal - Nationals vs Harper’s Bizarre Contract

Would YOU want to go to the mat against Bryce Harper?

At issue: Whether Harper is allowed to opt out of his deal and enter baseball’s arbitration system, enabling him to start negotiating higher salaries.

Either way, Harper is under the Nationals’ control for four more seasons. But millions hang in the balance, which is why both sides are bracing for a legal battle.

A battle that the Nationals, in particular, should do everything possible to avoid. Even if they hold the winning argument, ...

Read More...
boteman Posted: December 01, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 45 comment(s)
  Beats: boras, bryce harper, contracts, nationals

Jim Bowden: Potential winter meetings trades (PAY)

BODES

Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers

Dodgers acquire: James Paxton from Seattle; Jean Segura from Milwaukee

The Dodgers have a lot of outfield depth and are looking to build with younger players as they seek a World Series title in the near future. Not an easy formula to make transactions. Matt Kemp has five years and $107 million remaining on his contract, and although I think it would be a mistake to trade him, the fact is that the Dodgers are listening to ...

Read More...

The Caribbean »Nelson Cruz is close to signing with Seattle for $ 57 million

Google instant translation:

Nelson Cruz has an intention according to the Seattle Mariners for four seasons and about 57 million.

The information was provided to elCaribe a source close to the negotiations who asked reserves its name because the pact is not official.

Both parties negotiate a possible fifth year contract, which also includes a signing bonus. Cruz is expected to leave for the United States in the next hour physical examination that validates the deal done.

Cruz did offer ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:42 AM | 92 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, mariners, nelson cruz, orioles

Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2015 - Minor League Ball

John Sickel’s Top 20 for the Orioles.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:21 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: orioles, prospect reports

OT: Politics - December 2014: Baseball & Politics Collide in New Thriller

A crazed Chicago Cubs fan will do anything to guarantee a championship, and the President of the United States has a childhood secret that puts the Oval Office and lives at risk.

Bitter Mouse Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:19 AM | 4648 comment(s)
  Beats: books, cubs, fiction, politics

Graphing performance by age and position - Beyond the Box Score

Baseball Reference uses the following positional adjustments:

C: +10 runs
SS: +7.5 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3b: +2 runs
RF: -7.5 runs
LF: -7.5 runs
1B: -10 runs
DH: -15 runs

How would position changes impact the results? A CF moving to RF essentially loses a win in value. A shortstop moving to third loses half a win. A 3B moving to DH loses about 1.7 wins. I’ve also seen a lot of analysis of long term contracts that don’t take positional changes into account when estimating value. Has ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 09:55 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Do Hitters Wear Down Over a Season? – The Hardball Times

Now, getting back to the original question: How do hitters perform as the season progresses? Generally, hitters 25 and younger improve during the season, while older hitters get worse. The reasons could be injuries or just wearing down. The big surprise in aging happens between seasons, when players — who shouldn’t be experiencing any wear and tear on their bodies — get worse. Batters of all ages see their performance decline significantly from the end of one season and the start of the ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 09:51 AM | 10 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-1-2014

Washington Herald, December 1, 1914:

A baseball trade between the New York and Philadelphia American League clubs, involving Ray Caldwell, of the Yankees, and Rube Oldring and Jack Lapp, of the Athletics, is under consideration, according to reports published [in New York yesterday].

President Ban Johnson, of the American League, is said to have urged Connie Mack while on a recent visit East to arrange the deal with the double purpose of saving Caldwell from the Federal League, with which he is ...

Read More...
Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: December 01, 2014 at 08:16 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: connie mack, dugout, history, jack lapp, ray caldwell, rube oldring


Mets ‘actively’ looking to deal Colon, Gee or Niese | New York Post

Extra pitching always seems to work itself out.

One upside of possessing a pitching surplus in a pitching-rich market is the Mets could begin spring training with all three of their veteran starters, find assignments for them thanks to the split-squad games in the schedule and see if another team’s pitcher (or one of the Mets’ own) goes down with an injury.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:24 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Beats: mets

White Sox interested in Jeff Samardzija, but price may prove too high - Chicago Tribune

Are the Cubs in on him?

A source close to Samardzija said he would prefer to come home if he’s dealt but added it was unlikely he would agree to an extension since he’ll be a free agent after 2015 and stands to cash in with another strong season.

Still, it’s a match that makes sense. Samardzija grew up in Northwest Indiana attending Sox games at U.S. Cellular Field before becoming a star wide receiver and Notre Dame and then pitching for the Cubs from 2008-14. He’s always been a fan of the Sox, ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:22 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff samardzija, white sox

Exec says David Robertson has $39M offer; could set record for relievers - CBSSports.com

Pay a lot for a closer *and* lose your first round pick. Not an attractive prospect for teams without protected picks.

The Astros, whose interest was first reported by Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, wouldn’t lose a first-round pick by signing a top free agent since their first pick is protected. However, there are believed to believed to be a few suitors, and some surprises. The Blue Jays and White Sox are among teams seeking closers, though it isn’t known if they are involved here.

...Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:17 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: astros, david robertson, free agents, yankees

OT: Monthly NBA Thread - December 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: trying to justify how Billy Beane isn’t crazy.

The District Attorney Posted: December 01, 2014 at 12:32 AM | 649 comment(s)
  Beats: basketball, nba, off-topic

Sunday, November 30, 2014

No excuse for Hall of Fame voters to pass over Pedro Martinez - The Boston Globe

Bob Ryan on the Hall of Fame.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 09:02 PM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame


Minnie Miñoso - Golden Era Hall of Fame Candidate and Baseball Pioneer

Over the years, most of the key pioneer black players have been elected to the Hall of Fame:  Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella were voted in by the BBWAA during the 1960’s.  Satchel Paige and Monte Irvin were largely elected for their careers in the Negro League, each gaining induction through a special Negro League Committee which met from 1971 to 1977.  Despite being the second black player to break the color barrier and integrating the American League, Larry Doby had to wait until ...

Read More...
Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: November 30, 2014 at 12:25 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, minnie minoso, veterans committee

Franklin Barreto: The Key to the Josh Donaldson Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Prospect reports on the three minor leaguers the A’s picked up in the Donaldson deal.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 08:52 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: franklin barreto, kendall graveman, prospects, sean nolin, trades

Sunday Notes: Brewers, Raines, Carpenter, Castro, Cuba, Reds, much more | FanGraphs Baseball

Another interesting David Lauria column. Some good tidbits.

Members of the Red Sox ownership group are reportedly purchasing their Triple-A affiliate from the estate of Ben Mondor. Mondor, who purchased the team in 1977, passed away in 2010. The Pawtucket Red Sox – one of minor league baseball’s most successful franchises – have been run by president Mike Tamburro and vice president/general manager Lou Schwechheimer.

It is unclear if Tamburro and Schwechheimer, who have been with the ...

Read More...

Mets unlikely to swing blockbuster trade | New York Post

The Mets have pitching. Lots of pitching. An NL executive was praising it recently and saying it has to help them.

There was a “but” coming, however:

“But this might be the worst time in history to be out in the trade market with pitching,” the executive said. “No free-agent starters have signed [except A.J. Burnett]. You have the potential to trade for Cole Hamels or Ian Kennedy or a bunch of other really good starters, maybe even Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.

“And every ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 08:03 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Beats: mets

Justin Masterson and nine more potential free-agent ‘bargains’ - CBSSports.com

Looking over this list, I’d say Brett Anderson is the biggest bargain. He has the most upside and some pretty big risk that should keep his contract short and inexpensive.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 07:29 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

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