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Monday, December 01, 2014

Rosenthal - Nationals vs Harper’s Bizarre Contract

Would YOU want to go to the mat against Bryce Harper?

At issue: Whether Harper is allowed to opt out of his deal and enter baseball’s arbitration system, enabling him to start negotiating higher salaries.

Either way, Harper is under the Nationals’ control for four more seasons. But millions hang in the balance, which is why both sides are bracing for a legal battle.

A battle that the Nationals, in particular, should do everything possible to avoid. Even if they hold the winning argument, ...

Read More...
boteman Posted: December 01, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 45 comment(s)
  Beats: boras, bryce harper, contracts, nationals

Jim Bowden: Potential winter meetings trades (PAY)

BODES

Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers

Dodgers acquire: James Paxton from Seattle; Jean Segura from Milwaukee

The Dodgers have a lot of outfield depth and are looking to build with younger players as they seek a World Series title in the near future. Not an easy formula to make transactions. Matt Kemp has five years and $107 million remaining on his contract, and although I think it would be a mistake to trade him, the fact is that the Dodgers are listening to ...

Read More...

The Caribbean »Nelson Cruz is close to signing with Seattle for $ 57 million

Google instant translation:

Nelson Cruz has an intention according to the Seattle Mariners for four seasons and about 57 million.

The information was provided to elCaribe a source close to the negotiations who asked reserves its name because the pact is not official.

Both parties negotiate a possible fifth year contract, which also includes a signing bonus. Cruz is expected to leave for the United States in the next hour physical examination that validates the deal done.

Cruz did offer ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:42 AM | 92 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, mariners, nelson cruz, orioles

Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2015 - Minor League Ball

John Sickel’s Top 20 for the Orioles.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:21 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: orioles, prospect reports

OT: Politics - December 2014: Baseball & Politics Collide in New Thriller

A crazed Chicago Cubs fan will do anything to guarantee a championship, and the President of the United States has a childhood secret that puts the Oval Office and lives at risk.

Bitter Mouse Posted: December 01, 2014 at 10:19 AM | 5060 comment(s)
  Beats: books, cubs, fiction, politics

Graphing performance by age and position - Beyond the Box Score

Baseball Reference uses the following positional adjustments:

C: +10 runs
SS: +7.5 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3b: +2 runs
RF: -7.5 runs
LF: -7.5 runs
1B: -10 runs
DH: -15 runs

How would position changes impact the results? A CF moving to RF essentially loses a win in value. A shortstop moving to third loses half a win. A 3B moving to DH loses about 1.7 wins. I’ve also seen a lot of analysis of long term contracts that don’t take positional changes into account when estimating value. Has ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 09:55 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Do Hitters Wear Down Over a Season? – The Hardball Times

Now, getting back to the original question: How do hitters perform as the season progresses? Generally, hitters 25 and younger improve during the season, while older hitters get worse. The reasons could be injuries or just wearing down. The big surprise in aging happens between seasons, when players — who shouldn’t be experiencing any wear and tear on their bodies — get worse. Batters of all ages see their performance decline significantly from the end of one season and the start of the ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 09:51 AM | 10 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 12-1-2014

Washington Herald, December 1, 1914:

A baseball trade between the New York and Philadelphia American League clubs, involving Ray Caldwell, of the Yankees, and Rube Oldring and Jack Lapp, of the Athletics, is under consideration, according to reports published [in New York yesterday].

President Ban Johnson, of the American League, is said to have urged Connie Mack while on a recent visit East to arrange the deal with the double purpose of saving Caldwell from the Federal League, with which he is ...

Read More...
Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: December 01, 2014 at 08:16 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: connie mack, dugout, history, jack lapp, ray caldwell, rube oldring


Mets ‘actively’ looking to deal Colon, Gee or Niese | New York Post

Extra pitching always seems to work itself out.

One upside of possessing a pitching surplus in a pitching-rich market is the Mets could begin spring training with all three of their veteran starters, find assignments for them thanks to the split-squad games in the schedule and see if another team’s pitcher (or one of the Mets’ own) goes down with an injury.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:24 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Beats: mets

White Sox interested in Jeff Samardzija, but price may prove too high - Chicago Tribune

Are the Cubs in on him?

A source close to Samardzija said he would prefer to come home if he’s dealt but added it was unlikely he would agree to an extension since he’ll be a free agent after 2015 and stands to cash in with another strong season.

Still, it’s a match that makes sense. Samardzija grew up in Northwest Indiana attending Sox games at U.S. Cellular Field before becoming a star wide receiver and Notre Dame and then pitching for the Cubs from 2008-14. He’s always been a fan of the Sox, ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:22 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff samardzija, white sox

Exec says David Robertson has $39M offer; could set record for relievers - CBSSports.com

Pay a lot for a closer *and* lose your first round pick. Not an attractive prospect for teams without protected picks.

The Astros, whose interest was first reported by Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, wouldn’t lose a first-round pick by signing a top free agent since their first pick is protected. However, there are believed to believed to be a few suitors, and some surprises. The Blue Jays and White Sox are among teams seeking closers, though it isn’t known if they are involved here.

...Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: December 01, 2014 at 06:17 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: astros, david robertson, free agents, yankees

OT: Monthly NBA Thread - December 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: trying to justify how Billy Beane isn’t crazy.

The District Attorney Posted: December 01, 2014 at 12:32 AM | 743 comment(s)
  Beats: basketball, nba, off-topic

Sunday, November 30, 2014

No excuse for Hall of Fame voters to pass over Pedro Martinez - The Boston Globe

Bob Ryan on the Hall of Fame.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 09:02 PM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame


Minnie Miñoso - Golden Era Hall of Fame Candidate and Baseball Pioneer

Over the years, most of the key pioneer black players have been elected to the Hall of Fame:  Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella were voted in by the BBWAA during the 1960’s.  Satchel Paige and Monte Irvin were largely elected for their careers in the Negro League, each gaining induction through a special Negro League Committee which met from 1971 to 1977.  Despite being the second black player to break the color barrier and integrating the American League, Larry Doby had to wait until ...

Read More...
Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: November 30, 2014 at 12:25 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, minnie minoso, veterans committee

Franklin Barreto: The Key to the Josh Donaldson Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Prospect reports on the three minor leaguers the A’s picked up in the Donaldson deal.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 08:52 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: franklin barreto, kendall graveman, prospects, sean nolin, trades

Sunday Notes: Brewers, Raines, Carpenter, Castro, Cuba, Reds, much more | FanGraphs Baseball

Another interesting David Lauria column. Some good tidbits.

Members of the Red Sox ownership group are reportedly purchasing their Triple-A affiliate from the estate of Ben Mondor. Mondor, who purchased the team in 1977, passed away in 2010. The Pawtucket Red Sox – one of minor league baseball’s most successful franchises – have been run by president Mike Tamburro and vice president/general manager Lou Schwechheimer.

It is unclear if Tamburro and Schwechheimer, who have been with the ...

Read More...

Mets unlikely to swing blockbuster trade | New York Post

The Mets have pitching. Lots of pitching. An NL executive was praising it recently and saying it has to help them.

There was a “but” coming, however:

“But this might be the worst time in history to be out in the trade market with pitching,” the executive said. “No free-agent starters have signed [except A.J. Burnett]. You have the potential to trade for Cole Hamels or Ian Kennedy or a bunch of other really good starters, maybe even Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.

“And every ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 08:03 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Beats: mets

Justin Masterson and nine more potential free-agent ‘bargains’ - CBSSports.com

Looking over this list, I’d say Brett Anderson is the biggest bargain. He has the most upside and some pretty big risk that should keep his contract short and inexpensive.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 07:29 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

Springer-Fowler bond complicates Astros’ future - Houston Chronicle

The question is, how much does Houston’s management team actually buy into this claim? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 07:26 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: dexter fowler, george springer, houston

Peter Gammons: Beane ignites Oakland rebuild with Donaldson trade - GammonsDaily.com

The Donaldson trade from the A’s perspective.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 30, 2014 at 07:18 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, trades

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Tangotiger: Who will get the Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Morris votes?

This is a chart from 1967-2011.  It shows what happens to the voting of the returnees, based on how the voting goes for the players who were removed on the ballot the prior year and added in their first year.

There were 3.43 votes per ballot that are going to be lost from Maddux, Morris et al.

bobm Posted: November 29, 2014 at 09:28 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame

Beane not afraid to take a chance to make A’s better | MLB.com

I agree. One of the things that separates the best GMs from the mediocre ones is the confidence to trust their talent evaluators and pull the trigger on deals, even risky ones.

Beane doesn’t play scared. He’s unafraid to take a chance, to rework what already seems to be working. There’s a beauty, both in the guts to do it and in the vision to see what others can’t.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 09:02 AM | 54 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, blue jays, josh donaldson, trades

Four teams interested in Cuban pitcher Yoan Lopez « OutsidePitchMLB LLC

The San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks are all in the running for Cuban right-hander Yoan Lopez, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.

Sanchez reports:

“Because he is under 23 and has not played in a Cuban professional league for at least five seasons, Lopez is subject to the international signing guidelines. In accordance with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, each team is allotted a $700,000 base and a bonus pool based on the team’s ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 09:01 AM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: cuban free agents, free agents, prospects

Making sense of A’s trade of All-Star Donaldson to Blue Jays | FOX Sports

A GM should have no untouchables. Like with Donaldson, a GM might not want to deal a player but once the return gets high enough you have to pull the trigger. If his scouts and his number crunchers like the players, he makes the deal. After making the deal it’s up to the player development people and the major league coaches to get the most out of the acquired players. Granted the A’s are losing five years of Donaldson but they are potentially getting a lot years from the new guys. With the A’s ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 08:51 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, blue jays, brett lawrie, josh donaldson, trades

Padres continue search for offensive upgrade | padres.com

If there is one world to describe the Padres the last few years, it’s “mediocrity”. Their lineup has been filled with nice bit actors but no stars. The various prospect reports aren’t filled with star players either.This is a franchise in need of an overhaul. 

It’s believed the Padres are still reluctant to part with either pitchers Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross in a deal, though Ian Kennedy, who is arbitration-eligible and stands to make close to $10 million, could be had in a deal.

“In an ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 08:21 AM | 39 comment(s)
  Beats: padres

Cards can be patient with pitching market : Sports

Reports, originating first from ESPN’s Jim Bowden, connected the Cardinals to lefty Jon Lester, who along with St. Louis native Max Scherzer are the top starting pitchers available as free agents. While Scherzer’s market is still percolating — not unusual for a headliner and Scott Boras client — Lester has drawn offers from Boston and the Chicago Cubs, according to reports. He has also made visits to teams, including the Cubs and Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals, as of this week, had no ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 08:16 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: cardinals, jon lester

Number of Pitches in a Plate Appearance | Exploring Baseball Data with R

This is a few weeks old but I don’t remember seeing it posted. It’s an interesting study, more data confirmation for things we know.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 08:13 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

By trading Josh Donaldson, the A’s were just being themselves - Yahoo Sports

Every trade is a risk.

It’s the sort of risk the A’s always need to take because they’re the A’s. Thriving as a have-not in a sport rife with haves takes not just the gall to make moves like this but the ability to make them work when the future is as certain as the wind. Oakland took a risk by trading Josh Donaldson, the sort of risk they must take, the sort of risk a $150 million team like the Blue Jays needn’t. No one – not even those who run the A’s and love the deal – can ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2014 at 07:11 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, blue jays, trades

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