Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Baseruns Newsbeat

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Cameron: Next year really might be THE year, Cubs fans

Wait til next year. Forever.

And here’s where Cubs fans should find optimism; by BaseRuns expected record, the Cubs have played like a .500 team this year. Their expected record is actually better than that of the first-place Kansas City Royals, in fact, and is not far off from what the teams contending for the NL wild cards are putting up….

This isn’t a great team, of course, but the only reason the Cubs are in the mix for a top pick again next summer is because they’re 28th in both clutch hitting and clutch pitching this season. They haven’t hit well when it mattered and their pitchers haven’t kept important runs from scoring, so despite average overall performance, they’ve lost eight more games than expected. 

So why is this good news? Because clutch performance has basically no predictive value, and the historical record of teams that dramatically underperformed their BaseRuns expected record in one year shows that these teams often improve dramatically in the next year. Right now, the Cubs are 53 points of winning percentage below expectations…

t might not have shown up in the standings yet, but even without the wave of prospects that are on the way, this team has performed like a roughly average Major League team. Add in some expected production from a few of the young kids and likely a significant free agent addition or two, and the Cubs are going to be everyone’s sleeper pick next year. But it won’t just be prospect hype and a big name addition. This is a decent team that is a lot closer to winning than their current record suggests.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 27, 2014 at 01:33 PM | 58 comment(s)
  Beats: baseruns, clutch, cubs, dave cameron, projection models

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sebastian
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(3455 - 10:33am, Sep 23)
Last: Bitter Mouse

NewsblogMets near extension with GM Alderson
(24 - 10:32am, Sep 23)
Last: formerly dp

NewsblogSvrluga: Baseball’s Relentless Grind - The Glue
(9 - 10:29am, Sep 23)
Last: JE (Jason)

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(368 - 10:27am, Sep 23)
Last: ursus arctos

NewsblogJeter Denies Gift Basket Rumors
(24 - 10:22am, Sep 23)
Last: Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant

NewsblogMLB creates pace of game committee
(83 - 10:18am, Sep 23)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogJoe Girardi: ‘Pitch the right way’
(66 - 10:17am, Sep 23)
Last: Joe Bivens, Minor Genius

NewsblogHBT: Talking head says Jeter is “a fraud” and “you are all suckers”
(226 - 10:16am, Sep 23)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

NewsblogMLB: Braves fire GM Frank Wren; John Hart to take over interim position
(140 - 10:15am, Sep 23)
Last: zonk

NewsblogVIDEO: Jose Altuve leaves his feet to hit a high fastball
(5 - 10:14am, Sep 23)
Last: Astroenteritis (tom)

NewsblogA’s lose Triple-A Sacramento affiliate
(93 - 10:11am, Sep 23)
Last: Ace of Kevin Bass

NewsblogOld Cuban stars don’t begrudge ballplayers who defect - The Boston Globe
(1 - 10:07am, Sep 23)
Last: TJ

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-23-2014
(5 - 10:02am, Sep 23)
Last: bobm

NewsblogGene Collier: No shame in staying home for Pirates
(4 - 10:00am, Sep 23)
Last: Russ

NewsblogCalcaterra: If Bobby Cox has anything to say about it, Fredi Gonzalez will manage the Braves for a long time
(4 - 9:56am, Sep 23)
Last: Sweatpants

Page rendered in 1.3525 seconds
47 querie(s) executed