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Wednesday, September 06, 2017

The Jonah Keri Podcast: Bill James - CBSSports.com

Haven’t had time to listen to this yet. With the pairing, I’m sure it’s interesting.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 06, 2017 at 01:18 PM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, interviews, podcast

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Bill James: Career Won-Lost Record

The purpose of this research is to try to get a clear answer to this question:  Over the course of a substantial career, does a pitcher’s won-lost record become a reasonably reliable measurement of how good he really was?  In other words, we know that in a single season, a pitcher can pitch extremely well and be stuck with a won-lost record of 12-15, just because his team doesn’t score runs for him, while another pitcher—a teammate even—might pitch not as well, but might wind up with a record of 18-7 because he wins a lot of games 7-5 and 11 to 8.  But over the course of a career, do those things “even out”, or do they not?...

Let’s start with the assumption that there are three positions:

          1)  The traditional position is that a pitcher’s Won-Lost record, over the course of his career, is a reliable indication of how good a pitcher he was,

          2)  The Brian Kenny position is that Won-Lost records are useless and should be ignored, and

          3)  The compromise position is that Won-Lost records are generally accurate, but are not reliable in all cases. 

          Having studied this as thoroughly as I can study it, my conclusion is that the best answer is either (2) or (3), but that it isn’t (1).  It seems to me clear that, even over the course of a career, won-lost records are not so reliable that one can site them without concern for the possibility that they may be seriously misleading.

he doesn’t really show his methodology for determining luck/bad luck

 

Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 02, 2017 at 01:54 PM | 54 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, kill-the-win

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

How the wonks won baseball coverage

“It’s a ball now. It’s my favorite period in the business — by far,” says Tom Boswell of The Washington Post, a great baseball writer who straddles sharply different eras.

“I wish it had always been like this. You have all the old approaches to coverage still available — profiles, human interest, humor, etc. But so much more, too. For people who love to analyze (me), there’s nothing as good as real data, plus tons of unmined data where you can discover patterns that others haven’t spotted. FanGraphs, MLB.com/Statcast and baseball-reference are just an addictive gold mine. You have to restrain yourself.”...

It wasn’t long ago that baseball statisticians like Bill James were a curiosity, with the rise of the species even spotlighted in a Hollywood movie, “Moneyball,” about the Oakland A’s and based on the Michael Lewis book that chronicled Billy Beane, its idiosyncratic general manager.

Now, metrics rule baseball. As put by Keith Law, a baseball expert at ESPN who once worked for the Toronto Blue Jays, the revolution is over. People aren’t slaves to data but it plays a central role, with many basic assumptions of the past undermined. Thus, even the casual fan may view a player’s on-base percentage as more important than his batting average.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 21, 2017 at 04:05 PM | 19 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, reporters, sabermetrics

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Inside the Mind of Bill – Joe Blogs – Medium

“To me,” Bill writes, “that is just incredible. . .that Anthony Rendon drove in as many runs in ONE game as George Brett ever drove in in a three-game set.”

People often call Bill a numbers guy, a statistician, a baseball geek or whatever. And it has long seemed to me that they miss the point. Bill doesn’t care about numbers. He is uninterested in statistics as a concept or the numbers of other things. He cares about what baseball statistics can open up about the game. He longs to search the numbers to get beyond the platitudes and BS that people say just because it sort of sounds sort of right to them.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2017 at 10:06 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, george brett

Saturday, April 01, 2017

What’s keeping Bill James out of the Baseball Hall of Fame? | MLB | Sporting News

So long as players who retired before 1990 or so and older writers, historians and executives continue to comprise Hall of Fame committees, James will need considerable luck to even get nominated for consideration. Perhaps in 20-30 years, when the generation of players currently benefiting from the influx of advanced stats into baseball are on Hall of Fame committees, James might have a better chance.

Even then, though, don’t be too optimistic for James.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 01, 2017 at 09:38 AM | 103 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, hall of fame

 

 

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