Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Book Newsbeat

Monday, April 17, 2017

Keith Law: Let’s put the sac bunt to bed

IF YOU’VE SPENT any time on Twitter, you’ve probably come across fans and analysts criticizing manager decisions to bunt, from the band Puig Destroyer’s crude but effective song “Stop F—-ing Bunting” to my own term #smrtbaseball, an allusion to a Simpsons episode in which Homer calls himself smart, spells it S-M-R-T and then sets the house on fire. Here’s the main reason for all of this vitriol: In the majority of situations when it’s used, the sacrifice bunt is a terribly stupid play.

Let’s highlight some specific scenarios when you might see the bunt applied. With a man on first base and no outs, an MLB team’s probability of scoring at least one run in the inning in 2015 was 0.499, or roughly 50-50. Pushing that runner up to second in exchange for an out reduced those odds to 0.447, or just under 45 percent. So not only does the bunt reduce the number of runs the team could expect to score in that inning (from 0.84 to 0.65) but it reduces the team’s odds of scoring any runs at all. Remind me again what the point of the bunt was?

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 17, 2017 at 04:50 PM | 66 comment(s)
  Beats: book, keith law, sacrifice bunt

 

 

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(2451 - 1:15am, Apr 27)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogOMNICHATTER today, diet tomorrow. April 26, 2017
(65 - 1:13am, Apr 27)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(183 - 1:07am, Apr 27)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogDodgers to call up top prospect Cody Bellinger to aid outfield
(8 - 12:50am, Apr 27)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogCarpenter out of lineup serving one-game suspension
(1 - 12:44am, Apr 27)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogESPN layoffs: A running list of reporters, anchors fired by the network - The Washington Post
(31 - 12:04am, Apr 27)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogESPN will cut 100 on-air personalities today
(166 - 11:13pm, Apr 26)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogHunter Greene Done Pitching For The Season | BaseballAmerica.com
(9 - 10:02pm, Apr 26)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogOTP 24 April 2017: Talking politics (and baseball) with the mayor
(556 - 9:48pm, Apr 26)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

Sox TherapyChris Sale Is A Terrible Person
(18 - 9:22pm, Apr 26)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogMarlins expecting to finalize $1.3B deal to sell team to Jeb Bush, Derek Jeter group
(77 - 8:50pm, Apr 26)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogChris Coghlan went full Superman to jump over Yadier Molina and scored ridiculous run
(45 - 8:46pm, Apr 26)
Last: Rickey! No. You move.

NewsblogWhen will Mets call up Amed Rosario | MLB.com
(18 - 8:06pm, Apr 26)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogOT: March-April 2017 Soccer Thread
(320 - 7:04pm, Apr 26)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogWatch Matt Barnes Get Ejected For Throwing At Manny Machado Despite Foul Ball
(184 - 6:07pm, Apr 26)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

Page rendered in 0.9196 seconds
45 querie(s) executed