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Jim Furtado
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Bullpenning Newsbeat

Friday, November 23, 2018

Bryce Harper’s value and other baseball debates worth having over Thanksgiving dinner

Too late for Thanksgiving, I admit, but still better for tomorrow than joining the Black Friday mobs…

QLE Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:51 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: bryce harper, bullpenning, hall of fame, hot stove, manny machado

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Ups and downs of bullpenning on display as Brewers take Game 1

A lengthy consideration of pitcher usage- the crux of the argument is probably here:

It was the perfect example of not just how the roles of pitchers are changing before our eyes, but why it’s happening. Kershaw is the practitioner of an art that is still vital and hopefully always will be, but sometimes, the masters of that art will be overtaken by the collective. Of course, here we’re not talking about Woodruff’s hitting, but the thing he’s actually on the team to do: get hitters out.

QLE Posted: October 13, 2018 at 08:02 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: brewers, bullpenning

Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Biggest Problem With Bullpenning - The Ringer

In his 1970 treatise on punishing pitchers, The Science of Hitting, Ted Williams advised aspiring sluggers that their first time at bat in a given game is “a key to effective hitting, a key to the day you are going to have and therefore a key to your baseball life.” For Williams, the primacy of the first plate appearance was simple. “You figure to face a pitcher three or four times in a game,” he wrote. “The more information you log the first time up, the better your chances the next three. The more you make him pitch, the more information you get.”

Williams was right. Decades later, sabermetricians quantified what’s come to be called the “times through the order penalty,” a tendency for hitters to perform better each time they face a starting pitcher in the same game. As best we can tell, the phenomenon stems from familiarity, not pitcher fatigue. And as Williams asserted, it’s magnified the longer the look the hitter gets in his first trip to the plate. “The big advantage seems to come from seeing a lot of pitches, especially in the first [plate appearance],” wrote Mitchel Lichtman, who found that hitters who see more than four pitches their first time up gain 2.5 times the advantage in their next PA than hitters who see fewer than three pitches. (Ironically, Williams himself didn’t have a huge times-through-the-order advantage and was no better the third time he faced a starter in a game than he was the first.)

Jim Furtado Posted: October 11, 2018 at 06:35 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: bullpenning, strategy

 

 

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