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Bullpens Newsbeat

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Baseball’s Savviest (And Crappiest!) Bullpen Managers

We’re calling the resulting metric weighted reliever management plus (wRM+), and in the style of other “plus” statistics, it’s been rescaled for ease of interpretability: 100 is average, with numbers above 100 corresponding to the percentage factor by which a manager is better than average (or worse than average, for scores below 100). For example, Joe Torre grades out as the best manager since 2000 with a score of 113, meaning his bullpen management was 13 percent better than average.

At a glance, this leaderboard passes the sniff test. Aside from interlopers such as erstwhile Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez and former A’s manager Bob Geren, it’s a list of eight well-respected tacticians. Moreover, the first five men listed have all won Manager of the Year awards, as have seven of the top 10. While it is famously difficult to predict who will win that honor, which suggests the award might not be the most robust measure of managerial quality, it’s still good to know that our new metric isn’t coming completely out of left field.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 21, 2016 at 04:29 PM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: bullpens, fivethirtyeight, managers

Friday, September 02, 2016

The Indians and Andrew Miller Are Reshaping How We Think About Elite Reliever Usage

Chapman didn’t enter a game before the ninth inning or stay in any game for more than three outs. Miller, meanwhile, saw action as early as the sixth. He jogged in as often in the eighth as the ninth, and he entered in the seventh most often of all. He also turned in longer outings, throwing more innings than Chapman despite appearing in three fewer games. Chapman pitched in save situations all but three times; Miller pitched in non-save situations all but three times. He’s a closer-quality pitcher abnormally unbound by saves, which frees Indians manager Terry Francona to deploy him as a more flexible stopper.

Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: September 02, 2016 at 09:40 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: andrew miller, bullpens, indians, terry francona

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Is the dramatic comeback dead?

Is the dramatic comeback dead?

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated thinks that it is. His reasoning: Teams have loaded up their bullpen with power-armed specialists who are just so good that if a team gets to the late innings with a lead, they are more likely to keep it, and thus scuttle the chances for someone to make a dramatic comeback in the late innings.

A lot of the great games in baseball history involve late-inning heroics and comebacks from the brink. Everyone loves a comeback, but Verducci suggests that if the comeback becomes a lost art, it will suck all the life out of baseball.

His evidence for his argument was to show a chart with aggregate OBPs from innings 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9. In recent years, all three lines are trending downward, but the space between the lines is growing. Teams just don’t give up as many hits and walks; the seeds of the two-run rally that turns a one-run deficit into a one-run win-in the late innings any more.

Baseball is dying. Again.

There’s just one little problem.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 10, 2016 at 01:55 PM | 103 comment(s)
  Beats: bullpens, comebacks, tom verducci

 

 

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