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Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Baseball Therapy: Fixing the Service Time Manipulation Problem - Baseball Prospectus

I guess this is an alternative. I don’t see how this suggestion would be a better system. I also don’t see how the owners or players would agree to such a structural overhaul, which Carleton says would be about a wash. Lastly, he’s underselling the consequences for marginal and veteran players.On top of that, guys like Acuna would be **worse** off, not better off.

But then there’s the Ronald Acuna problem. Acuna made his debut for the Braves in late April and has put up amazing numbers at age 20. Acuna was the consensus no. 1 prospect in all of baseball before the season started, so it wasn’t like this was a surprise. Presumably he’ll be a very special player for the next decade or so. Under the current system, Acuna (thanks to his—ahem—late-April call-up) will play his age-20 through age-26 seasons under “team control” and then will be a free agent going into his age-27 season. The proposed system would make him wait two extra years, and while he would get his three years of arbitration, he’d have to spend two extra years playing at the minimum salary (and bearing the risk of a potential career-ending injury) before he got there.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 19, 2018 at 01:05 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: cba

Saturday, September 08, 2018

Players union criticizes Blue Jays for not calling up Guerrero - Sportsnet.ca

Yesterday on MLB Now, Eno Sarris suggested an idea which could be workable related to service time. He suggested teams get a fixed amount of time for minor and major league service time. I believe he mentioned somewhere around 8 years, dependent on draft age. A more workable timeframe would probably be 10-11 years but I believe with more work, there could be something to the idea. The question is, though, what other compromises on both sides would be needed to get it done. In CBAs there is always give and take. What would each side be willing to concede? Would the players be willing to get rid of super two status and reduce arbitration to two years? Would the owners be willing to increase minimum pays for players operating under their first contacts (not free agents, you wouldn’t want to price them out) and, maybe, bump up AA and AAA pay?

Those are just a few thoughts. Any other ideas?

Jim Furtado Posted: September 08, 2018 at 10:25 AM | 41 comment(s)
  Beats: blue jays, cba, mlbpa, service time, vladimir guerrero jr.

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jimenez Are Latest Victims Of MLB Free Agency System That Needs Changing


But that’s not true. They had a say in their collectively bargained agreement. They didn’t prioritize getting the service time system changed. Even now, I’d say they have other priorities which would supersede the service time issue.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 05, 2018 at 12:57 PM | 38 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, service time

Sunday, September 02, 2018

Twins hope to ‘make amends’ with Byron Buxton and his agents

At least he’ll only have one option left at the end of the year. With his play this year I can’t see him winning his grievance.

While Buxton, a Platinum Glove Award winner in 2017, will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this winter as a so-called “Super 2” player, he will fall 13 days shy of the service time threshold that would give him three full years in the majors. Barring a successful grievance from Buxton’s agents, B.B. Abbott and Al Goetz, the Twins now gain an extra year of club control over Buxton for 2022, his age-28 season.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 02, 2018 at 07:14 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: byron buxton, cba, service time, twins

Fancred Sports : Jon Heyman: Eloy Jimenez’s camp unhappy he’s unlikely to play for White Sox this year

What’s the potential CBA fix? Where does this issue fit into the MLBPA’s priority list? I would think gaining a bigger share of MLB revenue would be a more pressing problem to address. The revenue share is also a problem which impacts every member, unlike the service time problem.

Alluding to the players already protesting, Kinzer said, “Eventually, you’ll probably have to add us to the list.”

Not that he seems to be overly optimistic about their prospective case. There’s nothing specifically in the CBA about teams delaying ready players to set their clock back by a year, so the union/players have to prove the team didn’t act in good faith. “Bryant’s got a pretty good case … but they’ve been waiting on it two years,” Kinzer opined.

The ChiSox’s recent silence on the matter is being seen as reason to believe Jimenez will have to wait into next season for his call up.

“There’s no reason for optimism,” Kinzer said.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 02, 2018 at 06:59 AM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, eloy jimenez, service time, white sox

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Neil Walker Is Worried About This Winter | FanGraphs Baseball

Interesting article with interesting comments.

DBA455
So I quickly threw some numbers together which will be a mess if I paste in here, so I will I try to summarize.

For the top ~50 FA signed last winter, if you assume their 2018 comp is just their average comp for the course of the deal (which I think is generous, since the early years of FA contracts are typically considered the ‘bargain’ portion that the players allow for to reflect an understood over-payment in the later years AND ignores the player-friendly value of options) then I see teams getting ~45 wins this year for about $433M. Slightly over $9.5M/fWin.

I don’t think I see anything terrible out of whack there.

Moustakas is a genuine outlier (although wouldn’t be if he had accepted the QO); the market turned against him in a way he/Boras didn’t anticipate. Chacin and Moreland are bargain guys generating real club value this year. Lorenzo Cain perhaps the only bargain superstar: got paid like a 2-win guy when he was expected to be a 3-win guy and is playing like a 5-win guy. Good for him (and good for the Brewers FO for hitting on two of these).

But guys like Reed and Vargas and Shaw and Swarzak and Duensing are all guys from the mid tier who aren’t looking worth the $3M-$8M they are being paid. Logan Morrison too! His 1x$6.5 deal seemed like a steal for teh Twins in March. Less so now, with a projected 0.2 wins in the offing. As noted above, those are roles fungibly filled by clubs with”AAAA” guys at 90% less. Nobody gets terribly burned by paying Jaimie Garcia $10M for a year of ~0.3 win baseball. But is there a real asymmetry in a deal like that that disadvantages the players? I don’t see it.

And of course the real potential club-killers are things like the Hosmer deal (that deal felt bad when he was supposed to be a 2-win guy. As a replacement level guy … has to make for interesting water cooler conversation for Dave Cameron). Or perhaps Darvish. Unless you think arm-injured pitchers age well.

I certainly get why the players would like to make more money. And it’s hard to argue that minor league players have anything close to a compelling economic existence. But as noted in other comments, this labor union (like others) has chosen to prioritize tenure over merit, and clubs are responding accordingly.

The narratives of “tanking” and “collusion” and “unfairness” just don’t carry water.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:04 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, free agency

 

 

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