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Friday, July 24, 2015

Considering Hall of Fame chances for Ortiz, Beltran, Molina, more

Bring out the Keltner tests!

Carlos Beltran, Yankees (38 years old)
Career WAR/Peak WAR/JAWS: 67.0/44.3/55.6
Average HOF CF: 70.4/44.0/57.2

Two years ago, Beltran was amid his second strong season in a row with the Cardinals, one that would finally take him to the World Series; along the way, he added two more homers to a postseason resumé (.333/.445/.683 with 16 homers) to rival that of Big Papi. Ninth among centerfielders in JAWS and closing in on 400 homers, he seemed even more likely to make tracks towards Cooperstown when he signed a three-year deal with the Yankees in December 2013. The short rightfield porch, the big spotlight of a New York homecoming … it all fit together.

by Tom Verducci Alas, Beltran has bombed in the Bronx thus far due to age and injuries, namely a bone spur in his right elbow that required surgery last fall and then an oblique injury that sidelined him earlier this month. He’s hit a combined .245/.307/.414 with 22 homers and -0.7 WAR (including -16 Defensive Runs Saved) in 177 games in pinstripes, and while he still ranks ninth in JAWS, he’s 1.6 points below the average Hall of Fame centerfielder (statistically, a top-heavy bunch), and he’s no lock to close the gap with another 3–4 WAR before his contract runs out. Adding insult to the injury from which he just returned this week, he’s now sitting against lefties in favor of Chris Young. A strong rebound that pushes him to 400 homers (he’s at 380) and 2,500 hits (he has 2,380) would almost certainly help the perception of his candidacy in the same way it has for the once-disappointing Beltre.


 

 

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