Chase Headley Newsbeat
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Headley fits in New York.
So what do we have going forward? Headley’s defensive numbers in 2014 were stellar, and while regression should certainly be expected, his ability to handle that position over his next contract isn’t likely in question. His fly ball tendency will play extremely differently in Yankee Stadium than it will in AT&T Park, as suggested by his 118 NYY PRD and 89 SF PRD figures on fly balls listed above. AT&T is more liner and grounder-friendly, though as discussed above, the impact on grounders will be muted by his pull tendency. What we have is a league average hitter, assuming a very high liner rate. In all likelihood, he is starting from a slightly below league average hitter baseline at age 31, with normal aging to be expected moving forward.
Looking for a reason to expect better than that? Then you must believe that his improved fly ball authority — that 145 post-trade fly ball ADJ PRD — in his two months as a Yankee is real, a product of some sort of swing adjustment, and not small sample noise. To me, the four-year, $65M rumors being tossed around with regard to Headley are beyond the pale, as he isn’t that guy. If that late-season fly ball surge holds moving forward, Yankee Stadium, with it’s 129.3 overall fly ball park factor (177.4 to RCF, 165.4 to RF) is one place where it would more than fully translate into production, much more than it would by the Bay, with it’s overall mark of 67.3 (63.8 to RCF, 92.5 to RF). All things considered, if I were representing Chase Headley, I’d take a slight discount to stay in New York, as it makes one more somewhat lucrative future contract more likely.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
These rumors are all wet.
1. Justin Upton to the Orioles
While their hesitance to go to a fourth guaranteed year for Nelson Cruz is understandable, the immediate fact of the matter is that the reigning home run champ now resides elsewhere. Even with Matt Wieters and Manny Machado getting healthier, and even if you believe that Chris Davis is going to rebound, the O’s have some potential for major offensive regression if they don’t make some moves this winter.
In Upton, the O’s can reel in a corner outfielder who has a history of getting on base roughly 35 percent of the time, and can give you a 30-plus-homer season at Camden Yards. This is the kind of move the O’s need to make to maintain their top spot in an AL East in which the Red Sox and Blue Jays are obviously both dramatically improved.
Here’s the rub: The Braves, who appear more certain than ever to move Upton now that they’ve signed Nick Markakis, are looking for young, controllable arms in their bid to build a contender for 2017. There was a time when a top-tier pitching prospect such as Dylan Bundy would have netted far more years of contractual control than Upton, a pending free agent, provides. But in this starting-saturated market - and with Bundy re-establishing himself following Tommy John surgery - I’m not so sure that’s the case. Would the O’s be willing to part with Bundy’s long-term potential for some short-term thump? Hard to say, but their free-agent options have thinned in a hurry.
Posted: December 04, 2014 at 05:14 PM | 6 comment(s)
Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Five years for Headley? No thank you. No thank you. No thank you. No thank you.
But one free agent who might not find the Yankees to be his Santa Claus is Chase Headley, who only two weeks ago was being touted by folks in the organization as Priority No. 1 considering the lack of faith the Yankees have in the returning Alex Rodriguez.
Now, however, the Headley fever seems to have cooled, especially since the Pablo Sandoval deal with the Red Sox—five years, $95 million—seems to have stiffened Headley’s resolve to get a five-year deal of his own. According to a baseball source I spoke with Tuesday, the Yankees are not willing to give Headley five years, considering his age (31 in May), so-so offensive production the past two seasons, and lingering lower back problems, which could lead to surgery at some point over the length of a five-year contract.
Posted: December 03, 2014 at 08:41 AM | 23 comment(s)
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Why would they? They are already paying third baseman Alex Rodriguez $22 million.
for his generous support.
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