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Friday, August 04, 2017

Summary of Free Agent Market Trends | FanGraphs Baseball

Entertaining series. Be sure to read the comments as well.

In general, the bigger picture is that the low-hanging fruit has mostly disappeared. It has become harder to identify undervalued players using simple data, which means that teams will have to continue to innovate if they want to get good bargains on free agents. Some of this is simply better forecasting of performances, but it also requires better forecasting of free-agent markets. Being able to identify what types of players end up overpaid or underpaid due to competition is an important aspect of free-agent targeting.

Furthermore, determining which types of players a given team has a competitive advantage at signing could be an important source of value. For example, a team with solid outfield defense could still get value by outbidding other teams for a fly-ball pitcher. Similarly, a team with a pitching coach who teaches a good curveball could help create value out of pitcher with talent who is struggling to find his curveball. Simple park effect differences between teams could be a source of value as well.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 04, 2017 at 10:14 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Thursday, July 27, 2017

The Evolution of Positional Differences in Free-Agent Costs | FanGraphs Baseball

Another nice addition to the Matt Swartz series.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 27, 2017 at 11:04 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

The Relationship Between Spending Efficiency and Labor Markets | FanGraphs Baseball

I’m really looking forward to Matt Swartz’s updated analysis of his Dollar per WAR estimates. In this article he addresses some criticism from “progressively minded” analysts.

Changing the structure of the institution such that players receive a larger share of revenue is certainly a goal for which labor-minded analysts are right to advocate. But the ability of some club to identify undervalued talent isn’t an impediment to that goal. Smarter front offices will drive the undervalued players’ compensation upward and overvalued players’ compensation downward collectively at a market level. The labor share will not change, however, and if your eye is on that prize, keep it there. Uninformed front offices won’t help the union, while something like indexing the league minimum to television revenue probably will — and, in general, wishing for ownership foolishness is not a logical prescription on which to pin the hopes of any kind of labor advocacy.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 05, 2017 at 06:43 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Friday, March 31, 2017

Why the MLB is flooded with huge contracts - CNN.com

But forecasting baseball players’ productivity based on past performance is tricky, says Berri, who co-authored “Stumbling on Wins: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports.”

“Salary is a function of what (a player) did in the past,” says Berri, who notes that MLB general managers often overlook the obvious when considering the future—including the downfall of an aging superstar like 37-year-old Albert Pujols.

The three-time MVP’s batting efficiency has declined since signing with the Los Angeles Angels in 2012, yet has five years and $140 million remaining on his contract.

“I’ve spoken to a lot of different people in sports; I never get the impression that they know what they’re talking about,” says Berri.

“There is a sense you get that they would know who’s good and whose bad, and they would figure this stuff out.”

Jim Furtado Posted: March 31, 2017 at 11:05 AM | 33 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Max Scherzer and Jon Lester Have Been Free-Agent Bargains | FanGraphs Baseball

Bargains? Mookie Betts is a bargain. Kris Bryant is a bargain. Noah Syndergaard is a bargain. Scherzer and Lester aren’t bargains.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 07, 2017 at 02:44 PM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Restricted Free Agency, Anyone? | FanGraphs Baseball

Salary arbitration in conjunction with free agency has treated the players quite well over the years. With exploding revenues and smarter front offices, however, the players’ share of the pie has been getting smaller. No matter what changes get made to 4-6 year players, without a higher luxury cap, the players’ share will continue to get smaller. Nevertheless, it might be a good time to think about moving from the current arb system to a restricted free agency model for 4-6 year players. How? I like the solution proposed by Adam Dorhauer on HardballTimes.com last year. It’s relatively simple but gets rid of the funky current system with a market driven approach which seems to balance the needs of owners and players.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 22, 2017 at 11:17 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, economics, salary arbitration

 

 

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