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Friday, August 04, 2017

Summary of Free Agent Market Trends | FanGraphs Baseball

Entertaining series. Be sure to read the comments as well.

In general, the bigger picture is that the low-hanging fruit has mostly disappeared. It has become harder to identify undervalued players using simple data, which means that teams will have to continue to innovate if they want to get good bargains on free agents. Some of this is simply better forecasting of performances, but it also requires better forecasting of free-agent markets. Being able to identify what types of players end up overpaid or underpaid due to competition is an important aspect of free-agent targeting.

Furthermore, determining which types of players a given team has a competitive advantage at signing could be an important source of value. For example, a team with solid outfield defense could still get value by outbidding other teams for a fly-ball pitcher. Similarly, a team with a pitching coach who teaches a good curveball could help create value out of pitcher with talent who is struggling to find his curveball. Simple park effect differences between teams could be a source of value as well.

Jim Furtado Posted: August 04, 2017 at 10:14 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Thursday, July 27, 2017

The Evolution of Positional Differences in Free-Agent Costs | FanGraphs Baseball

Another nice addition to the Matt Swartz series.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 27, 2017 at 11:04 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

The Relationship Between Spending Efficiency and Labor Markets | FanGraphs Baseball

I’m really looking forward to Matt Swartz’s updated analysis of his Dollar per WAR estimates. In this article he addresses some criticism from “progressively minded” analysts.

Changing the structure of the institution such that players receive a larger share of revenue is certainly a goal for which labor-minded analysts are right to advocate. But the ability of some club to identify undervalued talent isn’t an impediment to that goal. Smarter front offices will drive the undervalued players’ compensation upward and overvalued players’ compensation downward collectively at a market level. The labor share will not change, however, and if your eye is on that prize, keep it there. Uninformed front offices won’t help the union, while something like indexing the league minimum to television revenue probably will — and, in general, wishing for ownership foolishness is not a logical prescription on which to pin the hopes of any kind of labor advocacy.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 05, 2017 at 06:43 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: economics

 

 

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