Tuesday, September 17, 2013
This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
Hey Bill, as the pennant races heat up, we hear broadcasters making a lot of references to how many games back a team is “in the loss column.” It’s rarely explained why the loss column is considered more significant than the wins column… Do you agree with this traditional notion that the loss column is crucial, and if so why? Thanks!
... It relates to the general problem of people preferring options that give them the illusion of control over the action. Managers generally overuse all “strategies” such as bunting and the intentional walk and bringing in a left-hander to face a left-hander, because doing these things gives them a measure of control over the action, and people always prefer to have control over the action. If you’re 88-61 you have more control over your own fate than if you are 89-62.
Researchers in all fields know that the option of “doing nothing” is under-used and under-valued. Decision makers don’t like to do nothing, and won’t choose “doing nothing” as their choice, even when doing nothing is the best percentage option available. Same psychological issue. .. .
I live in Birmingham, Alabama, where in 1910 the owner of the Birmingham Barons built a new ballpark. He modeled Rickwood Field on Pittsburgh’s Forbes Field and designed it to be expandable because he thought booming Birmingham would soon move up to the majors. We, and Rickwood, are still waiting… Would expansion—a big expansion—in the long run be healthy for MLB? Could we double the size of the majors?...
The “smallness” of major league baseball, the fact that there are a limited number of teams and a limited number of players so that the fans can know who all of the players are or certainly who all of the stars are. ..this smallness is central to the appeal of the game, central to the meaning of the “major league” designation.
There are dangers on both sides; it is also dangerous for baseball to ignore strong markets. It is dangerous to expand into boom towns, because booms end and very often the city that goes from 100th to 26th on your list will be back at 45th three decades later.
I think we’re near a point at which we’re going to need to expand again. It’s been about 20 years, and I think the greater danger now is getting behind the population distribution. I also think that baseball would be stronger if the top minor league cities were “free” teams, able to compete vigorously at the limit of their capacity, rather than being operated by the major leagues for the benefit of the major leagues. But I think it is easier to see Birmingham in the second category than as an expansion site.
Bill, has there ever been a game in MLB history in which a team forfeited because they used up all their pitchers and had no one left to pitch?
I don’t believe so, no… if a manager did that, he certainly would be suspended from baseball for months, and quite probably would be banned from ever managing again. Earl Weaver pulled his team off the field after a dispute with umpires once, forfeiting the game, but after that happened he reportedly was told (and I believe that he was told) that if he did that again, he would be banned from baseball for life. Baseball does not and cannot tolerate managers making any decision that reflects a willingness to lose. If your only option is to pitch the guy who was scheduled to pitch tomorrow, you have to pitch the guy who was scheduled to pitch tomorrow. If your best option is to pitch an outfielder, you pitch an outfielder—but you can’t walk off the field. Period…
Maybe I didn’t explain that right. A forfeiture is a breach of faith with the fans, a breach of the contract the fan enters into when he buys a ticket. When the fan buys a ticket, he expects to see a game, and he has a legal right to expect to see a game. If a team forfeits, they’re backing out of the deal. So a forfeiture is an absolute last resort, which baseball uses only under the most extreme conditions.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
And sometimes you draft a guy who strikes out 37 times in 39 at-bats.
Bill, Is there any good reason for umpires to have a rotation? Doesn’t it seem more likely that having the best ball-strike umpires always do the plate and the best base umpires at 1st, etc., would lead to more calls being made correctly?
... It was done that way long before the umpires were unionized. The problems inherent in the other alternative would seem to me to be almost limitless. Umpires rotate not merely from position to position but also from crew to crew, the crews re-forming constantly during the season with the goal of getting uniformity—and anonymity—in the umpiring. Since umpires change crews all the time, the guy who was the third-best ball-and-strike umpire on one crew would be the best ball-and-strike umpire on another crew, and the guy who was the best first-base umpire on one crew would be the fourth-best first-base umpire on another. You’d have to maintain a monster chart to figure out who should be positioned where.
The bigger issue, though, is skills development… If each umpire was “locked” at a position, what happens when an umpire retires, or is sick and injured and misses a game? Then you have to promote somebody who hasn’t been umpiring the plate to become a home plate umpire. This seems to me, frankly, about a thousand times worse than the current system.
I’m curious as to your views on what factors we should or shouldn’t adjust for when calculating a time line adjustment to rate old-time players against modern players…
My perception, before I worked for the Red Sox, was that process of trying to improve teams was offset by natural aging/breakage, keeping the game essentially on a treadmill. My perception NOW is that teams work so hard to improve constantly that they DO improve constantly—all of them. There have been a thousand little innovations in the game in the last ten years, innovations that spread rapidly from one team to another, so that a team that doesn’t work hard to keep up would get very rapidly left behind.
These innovations occur so rapidly and yet so gradually that they’re virtually impossible to document. We just do a lot of things differently—and better—now as opposed to 2003. Everybody does. Some of those things could be grafted onto Home Run Baker; others couldn’t.
I guess what I am saying is that accurate generalization requires clarity, and I just don’t have enough clarity on this issue to generalize about it in a way that would be useful.
Would Denver still have been chosen for an MLB expansion team if the effects of altitude were known (or at least more widely understood) 25 years ago?
... It takes 40 years to build a (reasonably) mature fan base, and there are dry patches in those 40 years when it looks like nothing is growing.
We haven’t expanded now in a long time, and baseball is getting kind of behind the curve with the population. San Antonio is now the 7th largest city in the country or something like that, and. . .no baseball. It’s a problem.
Let us say that baseball were to expand into San Antonio. First of all, you’d have to make some sort of local deal to get a stadium built, and then you’d have two bursts of interest/attendance: 1) When the team started to play, and 2) When the new stadium opened two to five years later. When those bursts of interest/attendance passed, then you’d have some dry years when the attendance was poor and interest lagged, because the San Antonio team—despite the population of the area—just would not have what the old, established teams have. People in Boston grew up going to opening day games with their grandpa. People in Kansas City now grew up going to Royals games with their grandpa. It takes a long time to establish that.
The Rockies now are kind of half-way through that process, and they’re in a little bit of a dry spell—but in the big picture, the organization has done well and the organization has been successful.
... Could you give some examples of ways teams have improved in the last ten years?
Ten years ago teams had a training staff of one or two people. Now we have staffs of people. . .trainers who speak Japanese and double as interpretors. The trainers are half doctors now, some of them. They’re veteran people who know the athlete’s body better than a doctor does.
We’re much more aggressive in using the options process to keep 25 players on the major league roster who are ready to play. Ten years ago if you had a reliever who had a tired arm, you’d wait it out. Now you DL him, call up somebody else and let the other guys’ arm come back.
All of the information that is produced by our field is mined by the operations guys and put to practical use pretty much immediately. Ten years ago we knew SOMETHING about where each hitter was likely to hit the ball. We know a lot more now.
Ten years ago we’d have a scouting report that said “Will use the change to RHB on occasion.” Now we know how many changeups and sliders and cutters and curves the pitcher throws to right-handers and left-handers.
Ten years ago we hardly scouted the Far East. Now we’ve got scouts everywhere checking out rumors of a baseball player. The Dodgers got Ryu out of some league that hardly existed ten years ago.
Ten years ago the Dominican Development Leagues were just getting started.
Do teams do continuous review of their scouting?
... I don’t know that we have systematic, organized review. I do remember Theo trying to organize a systematic, organized review of our scouting a couple of times, but I don’t know that anything ever came of it.
In a less organized fashion, we do a lot of that. During draft meetings we’ll start talking about old drafts, past drafts… We talk through those issues at great length (and with great frequency) after the fact, so that the mistakes we’ve made in the past become a part of our organizational DNA.
One thing you kind of missed on. . .when a draft goes wrong, you generally KNOW why it went wrong. Sometimes we read a guy as a great kid, and he turns out to be not such a great kid. A kid stalls out at High A; the scouts will know why he stalled out at a level that somebody else would miss. . .his swing path was too rigid, locked him out of certain zones and made him vulnerable, whatever. Sometimes you write a guy off because you don’t like his work habits, and he turns out to be one of those guys who is just a natural.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: Matinale: Sean Casey misinforms again but he's not alone
(11 - 4:03am, Dec 05)
Last: Walt DavisNewsblog
: [OTP-Dec 2013] Toronto Sun: Politics, baseball and Star Trek 2
(224 - 4:03am, Dec 05)Last:
: Keri: MLB Trade Value Rankings, Part 1
(7 - 2:16am, Dec 05)
Last: Barnaby JonesNewsblog
: Verducci: Morris Deserves Spot in Hall of Fame
(56 - 2:14am, Dec 05)
: Nationals acquire Doug Fister
(280 - 1:50am, Dec 05)Last:
Los Angeles El Hombre of AnaheimNewsblog
: OT: The Soccer Thread, December 2013
(59 - 1:15am, Dec 05)
Last: I Love LA (OFF)Newsblog
: Yankees close to deal with Kelly Johnson, who could replace Robinson Cano
(19 - 12:27am, Dec 05)
Last: Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rotNewsblog
: Rockies trade Dexter Fowler to Astros for Jordan Lyles, Brandon Barnes
(63 - 12:25am, Dec 05)
Last: KT's Pot ArbNewsblog
: Gabe Kapler: HOF voting needs clear-cut rules for suspected PED users
(18 - 11:48pm, Dec 04)
Last: Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rotNewsblog
: Mike Lupica on D&C: ‘Mystified’ by Yankees’ ‘dumber contract’ with Jacoby Ellsbury
(114 - 11:42pm, Dec 04)Last:
KT's Pot ArbNewsblog
: Pearlman: Ellis Valentine: addiction, life after sports & the beanball that changed his life
(5 - 11:31pm, Dec 04)
Last: KT's Pot ArbNewsblog
: OT: NBA Monthly Thread - December 2013
(97 - 11:31pm, Dec 04)
Last: Publius PublicolaNewsblog
: 2014 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies
(16 - 11:07pm, Dec 04)
Last: Davo Dozier (Mastroianni)Newsblog
: OT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(188 - 9:47pm, Dec 04)Last:
YR Is Surrounded by Yankees (the bad kind)Newsblog
: BPP: Vote: The 50 best baseball players not in the Hall of Fame, Version 4.0
(71 - 9:19pm, Dec 04)
Last: Tubbs' Expansion Era Ballot includes Dwight Evans