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Jim Furtado
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Fielding Newsbeat

Monday, January 19, 2015

Making small sample defensive metrics less volatile - Beyond the Box Score

What do I see? Well, raw IERP (and also raw DRS, not shown) has the same volatility as BABIP. Annual BABIP is mostly a crapshoot, so that confirms my expectation. ISO, wRC+ (and also wOBA, SLG, OBP, though not shown) are a fair bit better than BABIP. I don’t know about you, but when I see a one-year jump in ISO or wRC+, that’s a cause for interest. A one year blip may be a “breakout”, or the change might not last. We need to look deeper. Self-regression of IERP achieves that level of volatility; it makes the stat about as “reliable” as ISO or wRC+, an improvement I’m pleased with. Further up on the chart, the projected improvement in DRS with the Kalman filter techniques I’ve discussed (but not implemented) could produce volatility similar to plate discipline (K/BB). Plate discipline is in the family of the most reliable statistics on an annual basis. Strikeout rate is better still, but I chose to leave that off.

Is this level of improvement possible? Perhaps not. Based on my experience with this class of algorithms, I believe it is. Surely the burden of proof is incumbent upon the researcher.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 19, 2015 at 05:59 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: fielding, sabermetrics

Monday, December 22, 2014

The Downside of the Recent Padres Acquisitions | Articles | Bill James Online

What the bats giveth, the gloves taketh away.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 22, 2014 at 10:49 AM | 41 comment(s)
  Beats: fielding, padres, sabermetrics

Sunday, November 02, 2014

2014 Fielding Bible Awards

C: Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, LAD
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3B: Josh Donaldson, OAK
SS: Andrelton Simmons*, ATL
LF: Alex Gordon*, KC
CF: Juan Lagares, NYM
RF: Jason Heyward*, ATL
Multi-Position: Lorenzo Cain, KC
P: Dallas Keuchel, HOU

* = unanimous selection

The District Attorney Posted: November 02, 2014 at 01:41 PM | 36 comment(s)
  Beats: awards, fielding, fielding bible

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

medium.com: The Outfield Assist: An Appreciation

Nowadays, the outfield assist is an afterthought on the diamond; a throwaway stat that’s never even been good enough for a baseball card. Few of the advanced or sabermetric stats give the assist much weight.

And for good reasons probably, but they’re always fun to watch. If a team can find a good enough center fielder to make up for the [probable] hitting deficit, they probably should for the purposes of providing an entertaining team to watch.

manchestermets Posted: September 24, 2014 at 10:56 AM | 31 comment(s)
  Beats: fielding

 

 

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