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Monday, July 30, 2018

‘I guess we’ll find out’: What does the future hold for Joe Mauer?

Herein lies the question(s), then: Clearly, Mauer can still hit a bit, but does his offensive profile have any market value, especially in the face of his other deficiencies? And, moreover, does the possibility of qualitative value - the benefit of having a potential mentor in Mauer - make palatable the opportunity cost of committing a roster spot to an aging, power-deficient first baseman?

Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:26 PM | 109 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency, joe mauer, minnesota twins

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Neil Walker Is Worried About This Winter | FanGraphs Baseball

Interesting article with interesting comments.

DBA455
So I quickly threw some numbers together which will be a mess if I paste in here, so I will I try to summarize.

For the top ~50 FA signed last winter, if you assume their 2018 comp is just their average comp for the course of the deal (which I think is generous, since the early years of FA contracts are typically considered the ‘bargain’ portion that the players allow for to reflect an understood over-payment in the later years AND ignores the player-friendly value of options) then I see teams getting ~45 wins this year for about $433M. Slightly over $9.5M/fWin.

I don’t think I see anything terrible out of whack there.

Moustakas is a genuine outlier (although wouldn’t be if he had accepted the QO); the market turned against him in a way he/Boras didn’t anticipate. Chacin and Moreland are bargain guys generating real club value this year. Lorenzo Cain perhaps the only bargain superstar: got paid like a 2-win guy when he was expected to be a 3-win guy and is playing like a 5-win guy. Good for him (and good for the Brewers FO for hitting on two of these).

But guys like Reed and Vargas and Shaw and Swarzak and Duensing are all guys from the mid tier who aren’t looking worth the $3M-$8M they are being paid. Logan Morrison too! His 1x$6.5 deal seemed like a steal for teh Twins in March. Less so now, with a projected 0.2 wins in the offing. As noted above, those are roles fungibly filled by clubs with”AAAA” guys at 90% less. Nobody gets terribly burned by paying Jaimie Garcia $10M for a year of ~0.3 win baseball. But is there a real asymmetry in a deal like that that disadvantages the players? I don’t see it.

And of course the real potential club-killers are things like the Hosmer deal (that deal felt bad when he was supposed to be a 2-win guy. As a replacement level guy … has to make for interesting water cooler conversation for Dave Cameron). Or perhaps Darvish. Unless you think arm-injured pitchers age well.

I certainly get why the players would like to make more money. And it’s hard to argue that minor league players have anything close to a compelling economic existence. But as noted in other comments, this labor union (like others) has chosen to prioritize tenure over merit, and clubs are responding accordingly.

The narratives of “tanking” and “collusion” and “unfairness” just don’t carry water.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:04 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, free agency

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Hochman: Ex-Cardinal Lynn jaded by free-agency experience

“Maybe I’ll just go on and be a hired gun the rest of my career, I don’t really care,” Lynn said in his monotone voice. “If somebody gives me a chance to pitch, I’m going to go do it, I’m not worried about anything else. It’s kind of been who I’ve been my whole life. I’m going to take the ball and I’m going to try to help the team win.

“That’s kind of the unfortunate business part of baseball now. I was here for seven years and there’s no loyalty in the game. So as players, you’ve noticed players not having the loyalty anymore either. Until some of the things get cleaned up with the way the game’s going, the direction, that’s how it’s going to be.


Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Ringolsby: Collusion Or Common Sense?

The Cowboy’s take.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 28, 2018 at 02:42 PM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency

Friday, March 23, 2018

Leitch: Baseball’s Very Tepid Offseason Is Finally Over

When a player is finally in a position to sell himself on the market, he’s often already in decline. Which is how it came to pass that of the 25 highest-paid players in baseball last season — all of whom were, at one point, high-dollar free agents — almost one-third weren’t even average ballplayers. The worst player in baseball last year, according to FanGraphs, was Albert Pujols, who made $26 million — and is still under contract for four more seasons, for which he will be paid nearly $115 million.

[...] But this is a system that was collectively bargained by a players’ union that has, in recent years, valued the comfort of veterans and retired players above what might be just for younger players, often minor leaguers who aren’t even in the union yet. If you force teams to pay more for older players, you are asking them to find ways to avoid using them; if you force them to pay younger players less, you are asking them to value them more.

bobm Posted: March 23, 2018 at 01:12 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency

Wednesday, March 07, 2018

Under fire, baseball union may add legal firepower | NBC Sports Boston

This. The MLBPA has sold out younger players (including amateur, minor leaguers, and 1-3 year players) and made them even cheaper and more valuable. The middle class is now paying the price for their greedy, short-sighted, and simplistic thinking.

So the union surrendered the extra year. And then . . .

“Starting in the 1986 offseason, I started getting calls from all of these mid-level free agents,” said Orza. “[Guys] who aren’t getting offers, who aren’t getting jobs. Who eventually left the game. And they couldn’t understand why.

“And I had to explain to them: That what we had done in ’85 is, we made people who had two to three years of service much more valuable to the clubs. Because they could get the same [type of] player, but much cheaper now, ‘cause the [two- to three-year guys] didn’t have any [arbitration] rights.

“The number of players from zero years of service to three years of service in 1987 was 28.4 percent higher than the numbers of players in that same category in 1985. Where did those additional players come from? The guys whose jobs they were taking were the very guys who didn’t see how [the] fate of the salary-arbitration eligibles [affected] them.”

Orza sees a similarity today.

“What’s happening now is the Players Association has made young players, very young players, extremely attractive to clubs.”

Jim Furtado Posted: March 07, 2018 at 04:54 PM | 43 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, free agency, mlbpa

Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Eric Hosmer says lots of ‘red flags’ during grim offseason: ‘Something is wrong with it’

He got paid. Maybe the other guys aren’t really worth their asking prices.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 06, 2018 at 06:42 AM | 106 comment(s)
  Beats: eric hosmer, free agency, padres

 

 

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