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Saturday, April 13, 2019

BtBS: Pitching to contact in a strikeout market

Why contact pitchers will continue to wait for MLB jobs [...] If MLB wants to speed up the game, why are they putting a premium on strikeouts which create more inactivity? This is a question that Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Jackson and James Shields are asking themselves each passing day.

bobm Posted: April 13, 2019 at 07:02 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: contact, free agents

Monday, April 08, 2019

Dallas Keuchel’s asking price may be dropping

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears that free agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel may be lowering his asking price in hopes of finding a major-league deal, per a report on Saturday. Rosenthal cites a source that believes Keuchel is looking for a one-year deal above the $17.9 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Astros last fall, though he’s still open to a long-term contract at lower terms than the original $150-200 million deal he was seeking over a six- or seven-year span.

If we wait long enough, he’ll play the softball game for a few cans of beer….

QLE Posted: April 08, 2019 at 09:48 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: dallas keuchel, free agents, hot stove

Saturday, March 23, 2019

There is little correlation between player salaries and ticket prices

With the recent spate of contract extensions and big name free agent signings, more than a handful of fans have expressed concern that deals signed by the likes of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado will drive up ticket prices. Research on the subject is scarce, but both pieces of research I found — by Jon Morgan at The Baltimore Sun in 1998 and Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus in 2003 — found very little correlation between the two variables.

In Morgan’s article, he cited Allen Sanderson, an economist from the University of Chicago who said, “They are either independent of each other or the causality is reversed.” Causality, in layman’s terms, is one variable explaining the other. If the data showed a high degree of correlation, we could determine that, for example, an increase in player salaries does also result in an increase in ticket prices. But that wasn’t found.

Silver compared year-to-year changes in average ticket price and total player payroll from 2002 to ’03 and found essentially no correlation as well. The reason for this is manyfold, starting with the basic observation that the equation for an owner to set team prices is dependent many more factors than just his player payroll. Things like the team’s current competitiveness and general popularity, the presence of impactful marketable players, the area in which the team resides, and the general place on the expendable income ladder most of the city’s residents stand can all impact the price, arguably much more than player salaries.

Nothing that we didn’t already know, but still interesting to see aimed at a popular audience.

QLE Posted: March 23, 2019 at 10:04 AM | 10 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, salaries, ticket prices

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel - MLB Trade Rumors

Would it really be that unimaginable for Keuchel to settle on a pillow deal? In some ways, yeah, it’s tough to see how that could come to pass. But it wouldn’t be without precedent. Ervin Santana ran up a 3.24 ERA in 211 frames in 2014 and entered the ensuing offseason at 31 years of age. He reputedly sought too big a deal early on and then rejected lower-AAV, mid-range deals later in the winter. He ended up securing a one-year, $14.1MM contract — the exact value of the qualifying offer he had previously rejected — when the Braves finally ponied up because their rotation fell apart in camp. That’s the most directly relevant case to Keuchel’s, though others have ended up in similar situations. Jackson, for instance, settled for $11MM with the Nationals in 2011-12. Both Santana and Jackson ended up going back onto the open market in the ensuing winter and securing one of the mid-rotation, four-year deals cited above.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 09, 2019 at 10:03 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: dallas keuchel, free agents

Friday, March 01, 2019

Top 5 impending free agents now that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed

The saga of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s search for a new home has finally come to an end which means it’s time to start obsessing over the next big free agent contracts.

While we’ll certainly miss the Bryce-Manny Tracker, the wave of superstars following them to pick out their own Brinks truck will provide just as much excitement in their hunt for a new contract.

Among the top five free agents who should cash in are three MVPs, three World Series champions and arguably the greatest player in baseball in generations.

Well, no better time to start this conversation than the present….

QLE Posted: March 01, 2019 at 06:15 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: chris sale, francisco lindor, free agents, kris bryant, mike trout, mookie betts

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Baseball is back — except for the 100 or so remaining free agents. Is this the new normal? - Chicago Tribune

One of the *fixes* I’ve seen mentioned is players getting to free agency sooner. That might help a relatively small percentage of players. It will only make things worse for the middle of the road players. Having more of them on the market won’t drive up their salaries.

Asked whether it’s a problem for MLB to have so many free agents unsigned as spring training begins, Epstein predicted things would be “re-ordered” by the time the next collective bargaining agreement is agreed upon by MLB and the players’ union.

The current five-year contract runs through 2021.

“I do empathize and feel for the players who are still out there, who don’t know where they’re going to be with spring training starting, and how tough that is on their families,” Epstein said. “It’s not easy to get to free agency. … There’s a lot of blood, sweat and tears that goes into that. It’s a moment guys have been looking forward to their whole lives, and when it doesn’t pan out exactly the way they’d imagined (it’s difficult).

“I know we’re talking about millionaires here and everything. It’s not one of society’s great problems, but I still feel for these guys.”

General manager Jed Hoyer said the offseason signings have been “creeping later and later” over the last decade and that something needs to change.

“We’ve probably reached a point where it’s gone way too far,” he said. “Certainly it’s not in anyone’s best interests to have animosity, labor strife, talk of work stoppage, things like that.”

Jim Furtado Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:23 AM | 23 comment(s)
  Beats: cubs, free agents

Friday, February 08, 2019

CBS Sports:  MLB rumors: Agents for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado still seeking $300M deals; inside Marlins-Phillies trade

This is hilarious.  Hill. Air. E. Us.

Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, and Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, both are believed to be seeking at least $300 million. Neither wants to sign first, knowing once one of the players goes off the board, the other will benefit from gaining the sole attention of the remaining suitors.

So all of the angst over Harper and Machado not signing?  Their agent’s are behind it, not the teams.

TDF, trained monkey Posted: February 08, 2019 at 04:53 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

Sunday, January 27, 2019

NY Post: MLB owner: The long-term free-agency deal is dead

Speaking Friday at a team event, Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters the numbers don’t support the kind of lengthy deals superstars are looking for.

“I think that teams are very focused on value, and some of the deals that have been thrown out with Harper and Machado I think are long-term deals,” Crane said. “I don’t think that you’ll see too many more 10-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”

 

bobm Posted: January 27, 2019 at 08:25 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: astros, free agents, owners, strikes

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

2019 Free Agent Tracker | FanGraphs Baseball

A lot of free agents have already signed. There aren’t many impact players left. A lot of these players will be very disappointed because, frankly, there isn’t very much difference between the next couple of tiers and the players below them.
(Fangraphs has missed a bunch of signs.)

Jim Furtado Posted: January 23, 2019 at 09:37 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

Sunday, January 20, 2019

AZSnakepit Jim McLennan: No, baseball’s economy is not broken , Changing? Sure.

No-one has yet been able to tell me why owners are obligated to pay more to players, simply because revenue has increased. MLB is no anarcho-syndicalist commune where players and owners take it in turns to act as sort of executive officer for the week. It is a business, with players among the most well-remunerated employees of any company in the world - contracts guaranteed regardless of performance, health or federal investigation

Jack Sommers Posted: January 20, 2019 at 09:48 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: cba, free agents, mlbpa

Monday, January 14, 2019

Bryce Harper, Manny Machado mystery teams

This.

1. Giants
Things have been entirely too quiet around the Giants. Some of it is new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi putting together a front office staff and assessing his needs. Since he has not traded away Madison Bumgarner, his most valuable asset, that could be a tipoff that the Giants aren’t diving into any kind of rebuild. What they need more than anything is an impact offensive player or two, preferably an outfielder. Signing Harper would insert the Giants back into the postseason conversation and also give the franchise a foundational piece to build on for the next decade or so.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 14, 2019 at 10:45 AM | 12 comment(s)
  Beats: bryce harper, free agents, manny machado

Friday, January 04, 2019

David Robertson signed with the Phillies with no agent and saved $1.15 million

Is this really true as long as the player is knowledgeable about the market, knows the CBA, and has a good lawyer?

Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports condemned Robertson’s choice, saying his “savings” might only be short term:

“Very likely cost himself much more than that,” Heyman tweeted. “He is a smart guy but not a trained agent. And he probably understands this isn’t a do-it-yourself project. Last time, with a qualifying offer (and an agent), he got exactly twice as much.”

Jim Furtado Posted: January 04, 2019 at 06:11 AM | 37 comment(s)
  Beats: agents, david robertson, free agents

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Deadspin: It’s Time For Some Bryce Harper Game Theory

Is the news of a meeting with the Nationals evidence that the Nationals are still interested in Harper? Or is it evidence that they are trying to make his price higher for the Phillies?


Thursday, December 13, 2018

The Income Tax Implications of Bryce Harper’s Choice of Next Team | Community – FanGraphs Baseball

According to Chuck Hildebrandt, it’s about a $2 million swing between the worst and best.

Lastly, these tax estimates are based on the actual tax rates each of these states and cities levy on income earners in their jurisdictions, including the application of graduated rates where appropriate (mostly in high tax states, and in New York City). Even so, with only a few exceptions, the vast, vast majority of Bryce Harper’s income will be taxed in all these states and cities at the highest rate available.

Here’s the result, rounded off to the nearest $10,000 to make it easier to take in. Remember, these are not taxes he pays only to the city or state his team calls home—they’re taxes paid to all the jurisdictions he plays in during the season:

Jim Furtado Posted: December 13, 2018 at 08:56 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: byrce harper, free agents

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Bryce Harper Does Not Renew Lease at Arlington Condo

Of course, if he signs back with the Nationals, he will be able to afford to buy a much nicer place.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 11, 2018 at 11:18 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: bryce harper, free agents, nationals

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

Patrick Corbin agrees to terms with Nationals

The Washington Nationals are adding another high-caliber pitcher to their rotation, reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent Patrick Corbin on Tuesday.

The Washington Post first reported that Corbin and the Nats had agreed to terms.

The 29-year-old Corbin, an All-Star selection in 2018, is coming off his best season, going 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA while logging 200 innings for the second time in his career. Relying largely on his filthy slider, Corbin set a career high in strikeouts (246) after making his first Opening Day start for the Diamondbacks.

The Washington Post first reported that Corbin and the Nats had agreed to terms.

Looks like it’s 6 years and I’ve seen $125 million or $126 million.

Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:06 PM | 25 comment(s)
  Beats: diamondbacks, free agents, nationals

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Manny Machado reflects on hustle comments | MLB.com

Right, running hard to first in a World Series game is just showing off.

“When I was asked that question, I was definitely on the defensive, and I was wrong to answer it the way that I did, because looking back, it doesn’t come across how I meant it,” Machado said. “For me, I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.

“But I know how I said it and how that came across, and it’s something I take responsibility for. I look forward to talking with each GM and owner that we meet with about that, or any other questions they have.”

Jim Furtado Posted: November 21, 2018 at 02:41 PM | 77 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, manny machado

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Manny Machado doesn’t fit with Giants even if they clear infield space | NBCS Bay Area

Does anyone really think the Giants are going to spend much money this year?

Jim Furtado Posted: November 15, 2018 at 06:19 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, giants

Manny Machado: Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner wants ‘essential’ chat

He is Manny Machado, one of the greatest young players to hit the free agent market.

And this time, after all the years of trying to get below the luxury tax, the Yankees have no financial restrictions on signing the guy who could be the centerpiece of their infield for the next 10 years.

The $300 million question is whether the Yankees have the same interest in Machado as he has in them.

The Yankees have yet to publicly declare their interest in signing Machado, 26, and say they first want to address the void in their starting rotation. But if they decide they want Machado, they need to talk.

“It’s not just important,’’ Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said. “It’s essential.’’

They need to have a heart-to-heart chat with Machado about exactly what he meant when he uttered the infamous words that he didn’t want to be “Johnny Hustle,’’ during a Fox postseason interview.

“If it’s a $300 million guy or a $10 million guy,’’ Steinbrenner said at the Major League Baseball owners’ meetings, “clearly those comments are troubling.

“But that’s really [GM Brian Cashman’s] job. If we’re interested in any player, to sit down with them face to face and ask him, ‘Where did this come from? What was the context around the entire interview? Was there a point? How do you justify it?’

“Because that ain’t going to sell where we play baseball.’’

When asked how important it was to determine whether Machado simply misspoke, or actually meant those words, Steinbrenner didn’t blink.

“That conversation will happen,’’ Steinbrenner said.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 15, 2018 at 06:16 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, manny machado, yankees

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

The greatest under-28 free agents of all time, and where Harper and Machado rank – The Athletic

Cliff Corcoran’s list of top free agents of all time. ARod is #1, Machado #3, and Harper #11.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:35 AM | 20 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, pay site

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

BA: Minor League Free Agents 2018

520 players, list includes hyperlinks to BA player pages.

Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 07, 2018 at 02:58 PM | 23 comment(s)
  Beats: dreams, free agents, minor leagues, retirements

Undeterred by last winter’s free-agent freeze, Scott Boras is even more himself – The Athletic

Yesterday I listened to the interview with Boras shill Casey Stern (which you can listen to On Demand on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM). Although his hyperbolic shtick can be amusing in short doses, it wears thin in a half-hour interview. 

Anyway, Boras rehashed a lot of the interview with reporters, including Dave O’Brien here.

“We have all kinds of evidence that anybody who’s done what Bryce Harper has done (at his age) — they’re Hall of Famers,” Boras said. “I can show it 12 different ways. So you have a chance to employ a 25-year-old future Hall of Famer; you (rarely) get that opportunity. And the other thing is, Bryce has iconic value, which creates revenues for teams in addition to his performance. Those types of players are rare and they pay for themselves.”

Jim Furtado Posted: November 07, 2018 at 08:56 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: bryce harper, free agents, pay site, scott boras

Sunday, November 04, 2018

MLB Free Agent Rankings: Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and more | SI.com

If Ben Reiter is correct about most of his"best fits” a lot of these players will be very unhappy with their contracts this winter.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 04, 2018 at 09:11 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

 

 

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