Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

General Manager Newsbeat

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Why A Great General Manager Might Be Worth More Than Mike Trout

Billy Beane should have never written this Deadspin article.

 

The random effects model for free agent signings estimates that a single standard deviation of player-investing ability corresponds to a 40-percent difference in a team’s return on free agent investments. I calculate that the average team spent $47 million on players working under contracts they signed as free agents or extensions signed after landing free agent contracts in 2013. Forty percent of $47 million is just under $19 million in surplus value, so at $7 million per win, an additional standard deviation of free agent-investing ability at the GM level leads to the equivalent of 2.7 extra wins per team per year to the average team. (Of course, a new GM cannot completely overhaul his or her roster immediately. These numbers can be interpreted as either the annual added value a GM would provide once he or she has been in place long enough to fully shape the roster, or as the total non-discounted long-term value added from player transactions per year on the job.)...

My best estimate for the value of a single standard deviation of player-investing ability at the GM level is $53 million a year. The market says the maximum value of the head of baseball operations department is less than $4 million a year. Unless I’m way, way off, there’s a massive inefficiency in the market for elite general managers waiting to be taken advantage of.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 11, 2014 at 01:32 PM | 34 comment(s)
  Beats: billy beane, general manager

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JE (Jason)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-27-2014
(133 - 1:02am, Aug 28)
Last: God

NewsblogAJC: O’Brien: Expect B.J. Upton trade talks to be revisited
(32 - 12:54am, Aug 28)
Last: Der-K and the statistical werewolves.

NewsblogByron Buxton, Addison Russell, Mark Appel named to Arizona Fall League rosters | MiLB.com
(11 - 12:53am, Aug 28)
Last: Petunia inquires about ponies

NewsblogPassan: How macho baseball culture wants to ruin Yu Darvish's arm
(1 - 12:52am, Aug 28)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogJack White, Eddie Vedder, and Paul Simon take in a Seattle Mariners game
(22 - 12:47am, Aug 28)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(5799 - 12:13am, Aug 28)
Last: Misirlou's been working for the drug squad

NewsblogC.J. Wilson on Spin Rate, Arm Angles and Exploiting Weaknesses
(10 - 11:56pm, Aug 27)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogCameron: Next year really might be THE year, Cubs fans
(43 - 10:47pm, Aug 27)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogReports: The Astros may still be able to sign top pick Brady Aiken
(27 - 10:46pm, Aug 27)
Last: Ziggy

NewsblogDavid Justice Says Put Barry Bonds in Baseball Hall of Fame Despite Steroid Use Late In Career
(125 - 10:18pm, Aug 27)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogFangraphs: Cameron | Tim Lincecum: Now a Reliever, Maybe Needs to Close
(32 - 10:16pm, Aug 27)
Last: Jose Canusee

NewsblogKapler: Pinstriped Yarmulkes
(5 - 10:06pm, Aug 27)
Last: 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people

NewsblogJury awards Jose Offerman’s bat attack victim $940,000
(3 - 9:43pm, Aug 27)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogMariners Extend GM Jack Zduriencik
(50 - 9:24pm, Aug 27)
Last: toratoratora

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(716 - 8:48pm, Aug 27)
Last: Richard

Page rendered in 1.0383 seconds
47 querie(s) executed