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Saturday, January 24, 2015

Keri - Wayward Marlins Take Aim at Sustained Success

How did the Marlins go from a frequently penny-pinching club that couldn’t find the money to sign future first-ballot Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera to a team that just paid Giancarlo Stanton $325 million before making a slew of other offseason moves intended to turn Miami into a consistent contender? After 22 tumultuous years for the franchise, why do the Marlins now believe they are financially secure enough to pay their best player a third of a billion dollars and talented enough to compete for a playoff spot — not only in 2015, but also for years to come?

These and other pressing questions on the next exciting episode of Miami Nice!

boteman Posted: January 24, 2015 at 12:36 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: grantland, jonah keri, marlins, saving money is what we do

Friday, September 19, 2014

Lindbergh: Dellin Betances’s Season & Bullpen Strategy

Dellin goes electric?

Despite being a setup man with only one save on the season, Betances has been lights-out enough to lead the majors in WPA — the first time a setup man has done so since Tyler Clippard in 2011. On the post-’88 leaderboard, though, the closers rise to the top, and Betances has to settle for a spot just inside the top 60.

Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: September 19, 2014 at 05:50 PM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: grantland, relief pitching, yankees

Lindbergh: Where Dellin Betances’s Season Ranks Historically, and What It Teaches Us About Bullpen Strategy

Despite being a setup man with only one save on the season, Betances has been lights-out enough to lead the majors in WPA — the first time a setup man has done so since Tyler Clippard in 2011. On the post-’88 leaderboard, though, the closers rise to the top, and Betances has to settle for a spot just inside the top 60.3

The Goldilocks stat we’re seeking — a counting stat that doesn’t discriminate based on leverage — is Run Expectancy Wins, or REW. Using a framework similar to WPA’s, REW calculates the difference between the number of runs a team is expected to score in the inning at the start and the end of each play, credits/debits the batter/pitcher accordingly, and then compiles the differences to arrive at a full-season total of wins added or subtracted. But because it’s not sensitive to inning or score — a two-out, bases-loaded strikeout counts the same in the seventh inning of a six-run game as it does in a ninth-inning tie — it’s closer to context-neutral than WPA, allowing us to pit Betances against guys who got the chance to finish more games.


Thursday, September 18, 2014

Keri: How Washington Built a World Series Favorite

Or: How I Learned To Love Them Even Though They Stole My Team

The Washington Nationals became the first team to clinch their division this season…. Throughout the 2014 campaign, the Nats have conjured late-inning heroics and convincing blowouts alike while building the best record in the National League, and at 87-64, they’ve still got a shot at matching the 98-win 2012 Nationals for the best record in franchise history.1

That’s a damn miracle, considering that just five years ago this was the worst franchise in baseball, and a way station for the damned.

boteman Posted: September 18, 2014 at 05:25 PM | 58 comment(s)
  Beats: expos, grantland, jonah keri, nationals

 

 

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