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Home Runs Newsbeat

Monday, June 12, 2017

WaPo: Fancy Stats: Today’s Yankees Are A Modern-Day Murderers’ Row

The Yankees have 14 games in which they hit three or more home runs this season, the most in franchise history over the first 60 games of the season. And this year’s squad also has three five-homer games in 2017, the most in the majors. This season, the Yankees have 102 home runs in 60 games, putting them on pace for 275 home runs over a 162-game season, which, if sustained, would eclipse the major league record set by the 1997 Seattle Mariners (264). The most ever by the Yankees was in 2012 (245), followed closely by the 2009 (244) and 2004 seasons (242). The 1961 Yankees, which included a 61-home run campaign by Roger Maris, hit 204 [Typo Alert: actually 240] that season. The 1927 version of Murderers’ Row hit 158 home runs in 155 games.

That was a different era. Yet even after you adjust for that, plus further account for league and park effects, this is the fourth-best hitting team in franchise history, creating runs at a rate that is 22 percent higher than average. The only other rosters in the Bronx that were (slightly) better were the Ruth and Gehrig years of 1927 (126 wRC+), 1930 (124) and 1931 (124).

If they get some production out of the 1st & 3rd base slots, everything would be good.


Sunday, June 11, 2017

The Economist: Baseball’s rarest offensive achievement is about to get more common

A 43% increase in the leaguewide HR rate since 2014 corresponds to over a 3x increase in the probability of seeing at least one 4-HR game in a given season.

Mr Gennett has a much lower chance of a four-home-run game than, say, a power hitter like Giancarlo Stanton: based on their career rates, Mr Stanton would be about 6,000 times more likely to accomplish the feat. However, the gap between the best and the rest appears to be shrinking slightly. In 2014, the top five players by home-run rate exceeded the league average by 134%. This year, in contrast, the top five surpass the (much higher) league average by “just” 105%.

And of course, there are far more average players like Mr Gennett than there are superstars like Mr Stanton. Given enough humdrum hitters, the sum of their low probabilities of a four-home-run game can exceed that of the small handful of sluggers with truly elite talent.

David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 11, 2017 at 06:26 PM | 16 comment(s)
  Beats: home runs

Monday, June 05, 2017


Thursday, June 01, 2017

MLB officially has too many damn home runs

Please remove 3.

p.s. I am not a crackpot.

Bote Man Posted: June 01, 2017 at 08:22 PM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: home run spike, home runs, juiced ball

Tuesday, May 16, 2017


Tuesday, May 09, 2017

As Home Run Rates Rise, MLB Offers Evidence That the Ball Isn’t Juiced

In the 2016 study, MLB received two dozen balls apiece from five teams, with each club’s contribution coming from its Rawlings-supplied stock designated for in-game use during the regular season. The BRC tested a dozen balls from each shipment immediately and stored the other dozen under controlled atmospheric conditions for at least two weeks before beginning the tests, which consisted of measuring the balls’ weight, circumference, and coefficient of restitution, or COR, a measure of elasticity (basically, bounciness) that largely determines how fast and how far a batted ball travels.

The report says that all of the baseballs were not only well within the limits of MLB’s fairly broad manufacturing specifications, but also “comparable in weight, circumference and COR to previous compliance data,” an assertion supported by plots of average values and 95 percent confidence intervals for each of the previous testing periods. The COR graph below — which I requested (and was granted) permission to share — is one of the document’s many nonsmoking guns. (The squiggly blue line marks a point in the 2012 offseason when the test conditions switched from balls being fired at 85 feet per second into a solid ash block to balls being fired at 88 feet per second into a solid steel plate.)

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 09, 2017 at 10:47 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: home run spike, home runs, juiced ball

Sunday, April 30, 2017

WaPo: Anthony Rendon Has 3 HRs, 10 RBI In Historic Rout

Tony Two-Bags had a very good day:

Anthony Rendon, who began the day as the least productive player in the starting lineup, fronted the charge by going 6 for 6 with three home runs, a three-run double and 10 RBI. The third baseman became the fifth player in club history with three home runs in a game and the 13th player in major league history — and first since 2007 — with at least 10 RBI in a game. Rendon joined Walker Cooper as the only players in major league history with six hits, three home runs and 10 RBI in a game. Cooper did it as a catcher for the Cincinnati Reds in 1949.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2017 at 10:59 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: anthony rendon, home runs, rbi, washington nationals

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Yankees Stage Improbable Comeback Behind a Volley of Home Runs

Didn’t look good for the Yankees, down 9-1 in the 6th, and 11-4 in the 7th, but …

“He’s probably the most gifted baseball player I’ve ever been around,” said Matt Holliday of his 25-year-old teammate Aaron Judge, a rookie with all of 155 major league at-bats. “I mean, he’s 6-foot-8, 275 pounds. He moves really well in the outfield. I’m not saying he’s going to be the greatest player who ever played, but as far as when the guy hit a 97-mile-per-hour fastball that was a line drive that the shortstop jumped for and it went over the fence. He can do things that I haven’t seen, and I’ve played a long time.
. . .
And it was especially high praise coming from the player who wound up striking the biggest blow Friday night, a game-ending, three-run home run in the bottom of the 10th inning that gave the Yankees a highly improbable, and probably unforgettable, 14-11 victory over the Baltimore Orioles.

Holliday’s home run was just the final blast on a night in which Yankee Stadium 2017 played a lot like Yankee Stadium 2009, when baseballs regularly flew through air that somehow seemed too thin and soared over walls that appeared way too close.

A memorable game. Perhaps a special season?


Thursday, March 30, 2017

Elevator pitch: HR hitters share power points

The most popular theory, unsurprisingly, posited that something had changed with the composition of the ball itself, an interesting thought given that the home run surge seemed to start somewhat suddenly in 2015. A study by FiveThirtyEight went so far as to have a laboratory fire balls out of a cannon to test them, but the results were inconclusive. And not only did Commissioner Rob Manfred tell ESPN that nothing had been changed with the ball, but a well-respected college physics professor offered evidence in an article that didn’t support the theory, casting more doubt on that angle.

But what if Myers was on to something? What if part of it was as simple as a new generation of analytically savvy players simply trying to hit more homers? After all, we are seeing players talking about trying to elevate the ball, notably late-blooming sluggers like Josh Donaldson, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Not to mention the fact that the average launch angle across MLB rose from 10.5 degrees to 11.5 in 2016. And as the Cubs like to say, “There’s no slug on the ground.”

That’s the kind of thing you couldn’t be sure of unless you asked them.

So that’s exactly what we did.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 30, 2017 at 12:17 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: home runs

 

 

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