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Friday, February 21, 2014

Fangraphs (Cameron)—Best and Worst Transactions of the 2014 Offseason

Worst Transactions of the 2014 Offseason.

Best transaction:

1. The Nationals acquire Doug Fister.
Cost: Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol.

You probably knew this was coming. I’m going to guess that this move will show up at the top of every best-transactions-of-2014 list, as the Nationals basically stole Doug Fister from the Tigers in a trade that no one still understands very well. When you look at the prices being commanded for quality starting pitchers, getting Fister — who will make less than $20 million over the next two years, most likely — for a trio of bit pieces is a huge theft. We haven’t seen a player this good get traded for this little in years, and it’s mystifying how Mike Rizzo managed to get Fister for this price. This deal put the Nationals right back in playoff contention, and it did so for such a low cost that I still haven’t found anyone who thinks the Tigers made a good trade. When a deal is universally accepted as a heist, you’ve done something very right.

Worst transaction:

1. Tigers acquire Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol.
Cost: Doug Fister.

There are basically two options here:

1. Everyone is wrong about Robbie Ray. The Tigers actually just acquired one of the best young left-handed pitching prospects in the game, the kind of guy who could step into their rotation in 2015 and provide years of quality innings before he ever makes any kind of real money.

2. Dave Dombrowski screwed up. Because if Robbie Ray isn’t a quality, high-end pitching prospect, the Tigers sold a pitcher as good or better than Masahiro Tanaka, who will make less than $20 million over the next two years, for the kind of return that a team should expect when trading a decent role player.

Pitching prospects are hard to predict, and there are plenty of scenarios where it turns out that #1 is actually true, and this deal works out for the Tigers. If Ray turns into something, swapping two years of Fister for six years of a good young arm won’t look like a bad idea at all, especially given the Tigers current pitching depth. But the consensus among other teams and prospect experts is that Ray is not that kind of prospect, and that this is the most lopsided trade we’ve seen in years. For two bargain years of Doug Fister, the Tigers should have gotten a really strong return, and very few people think this qualifies. Maybe Ray will prove everyone wrong. Or maybe a good GM just whiffed.

At this point my karmic anntenae are telling me that the most likely outcome is that Robbie Ray becomes the next Justin Verlander, and Doug Fister gets accidentally run over by a zamboni on his first visit to a Capitals game next month.

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The above link is to the “Best Transactions.”  Here is the Worst Transactions of the 2014 Offseason.

Best transaction:

1. The Nationals acquire Doug Fister.
Cost: Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol.

You probably knew this was coming. I’m going to guess that this move will show up at the top of every best-transactions-of-2014 list, as the Nationals basically stole Doug Fister from the Tigers in a trade that no one still understands very well. When you look at the prices being commanded for quality starting pitchers, getting Fister — who will make less than $20 million over the next two years, most likely — for a trio of bit pieces is a huge theft. We haven’t seen a player this good get traded for this little in years, and it’s mystifying how Mike Rizzo managed to get Fister for this price. This deal put the Nationals right back in playoff contention, and it did so for such a low cost that I still haven’t found anyone who thinks the Tigers made a good trade. When a deal is universally accepted as a heist, you’ve done something very right.

Worst transaction:

1. Tigers acquire Robbie Ray, Steve Lombardozzi, and Ian Krol.
Cost: Doug Fister.

There are basically two options here:

1. Everyone is wrong about Robbie Ray. The Tigers actually just acquired one of the best young left-handed pitching prospects in the game, the kind of guy who could step into their rotation in 2015 and provide years of quality innings before he ever makes any kind of real money.

2. Dave Dombrowski screwed up. Because if Robbie Ray isn’t a quality, high-end pitching prospect, the Tigers sold a pitcher as good or better than Masahiro Tanaka, who will make less than $20 million over the next two years, for the kind of return that a team should expect when trading a decent role player.

Pitching prospects are hard to predict, and there are plenty of scenarios where it turns out that #1 is actually true, and this deal works out for the Tigers. If Ray turns into something, swapping two years of Fister for six years of a good young arm won’t look like a bad idea at all, especially given the Tigers current pitching depth. But the consensus among other teams and prospect experts is that Ray is not that kind of prospect, and that this is the most lopsided trade we’ve seen in years. For two bargain years of Doug Fister, the Tigers should have gotten a really strong return, and very few people think this qualifies. Maybe Ray will prove everyone wrong. Or maybe a good GM just whiffed.

At this point my karmic anntenae are telling me that the most likely outcome is that Robbie Ray becomes the next Justin Verlander, and Doug Fister gets accidentally run over by a zamboni on his first visit to a Capitals game next month.

Esoteric Posted: February 21, 2014 at 12:40 PM | 39 comment(s)
  Beats: hot stove

Monday, December 16, 2013

MLB reaches agreement with NPB on Revised Posting System

The Office of the Commissioner of Major League Baseball (MLB) announced today that it has agreed to terms with Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) on revised protocols for the posting system shared by the leagues. MLB’s Executive Council approved the new agreement today.

Swedish Chef Posted: December 16, 2013 at 06:30 PM | 56 comment(s)
  Beats: business, hot stove, japan, mlb, nbp

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Bowman: After Hudson, Braves seek short-term veteran starter

There was some thought that the Braves might be among those teams that could be in the market for David Price or any of the other legitimate aces that could be available on the trade market. But Wren has made it clear that he is not willing to mortgage his club’s future by offering the kind of package it would likely take to get one of these pitchers.

Instead, it seems more likely that Atlanta will evaluate the trade market in search of an accomplished veteran who would not require as significant of a return package. One possible target seems to be Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse, who has compiled a 3.19 ERA in the 95 starts he has combined to make with the Brewers and Cardinals over the past three years.

If the Brewers are willing to trade Lohse, they will likely be seeking a first baseman in the return package. The Braves might be able to satisfy this need with a package that would include Joey Terdoslavich and another prospect.

Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: November 20, 2013 at 05:01 PM | 10 comment(s)
  Beats: atlanta, hot stove, milwaukee

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Lilly aims to continue MLB career post-injury

Ted Lilly’s neck pain forced him off of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster and into the care of specialists this season. But even after a trying summer, the 37-year-old veteran of 15 MLB seasons is preparing to return to the MLB level by re-establishing his form in Venezuela.

Lilly visited a cervical spine specialist after dealing with neck pain and stiffness during a difficult season with the Dodgers. Those visits led to a procedure that cauterized the nerve endings on the right side of his neck. Though it’s not considered surgery, doctors used a large needle to burn the nerve endings on Lilly’s neck. So far it’s been working.

“That procedure has given him relief,” agent Larry O’Brien told sportsnet.ca.

Lilly, whose three-year $33 million contract expired this year, intends to pitch at the MLB level in 2014. The left-hander is currently pitching for the Navegantes del Magallanes in Venezuela to get some repetitions in and test his neck during the off-season.

Good cripple hitter Posted: November 14, 2013 at 07:31 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, hot stove, injury, ted lilly, winter leagues

 

 

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