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Friday, July 10, 2015

How Much Should You Believe in the Standings? - Jeff Sullivan

FanGraphs has published in-season projections for a few years. These projections account for changes to the team depth charts, so they’re updated from preseason team projections. I was able to access them using the Wayback Machine. The goal here: what’s more predictive, between three months of performance and updated team projections? I have just two years of data, meaning a team sample of 60, but we can at least see what’s there.

Conclusion isn’t surprising: standings are pretty predictive, pythag is just about the same, projections are a little bit better.  But the predictiveness of a team’s record at three months is MUCH higher than it was in his previous study that looked at the two-month record. Basically, at two months there’s a good chance that divergence from predictions are just noise. At three months, there’s a pretty good bet that it’s real.

Baldrick Posted: July 10, 2015 at 03:03 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff sullivan, projections, pythag

Friday, April 10, 2015

What Have New Pace Rules Meant for Troy Tulowitzki?

According to the rule, Tulowitzki isn’t violating anything. He kept a foot in the box, which is basically it. But that didn’t stop him from going through his full and familiar routine… So the rule really doesn’t address this sort of behavior. Maybe you’ll shave off a second or two, but frequently, players would go through their idiosyncrasies while they wandered away from the box. Now they’ll just do them in the box. The rule essentially forces catchers and umpires to watch batters adjust their equipment. They used to do it more politely on the side.


Put it all together and you have this: Troy Tulowitzki has observed the new rule. When he needs to, he keeps that foot in the box, so as not to be in violation. This despite there not yet being any real discipline for offenders. And, last year, Tulowitzki’s between-pitch pace averaged 27.9 seconds. In the early going this year, he’s averaged 28.4 seconds. There has been some element of concern that changing the rules could disrupt hitter timing. Doesn’t seem like the kind of thing anyone will have to worry about. For Troy Tulowitzki, the game hasn’t changed. He’ll just look a tiny bit worse to his pedometer.

PreservedFish Posted: April 10, 2015 at 10:38 AM | 61 comment(s)
  Beats: fangraphs, jeff sullivan, pace of game, rules, troy tulowitzki



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