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Friday, July 10, 2015

How Much Should You Believe in the Standings? - Jeff Sullivan

FanGraphs has published in-season projections for a few years. These projections account for changes to the team depth charts, so they’re updated from preseason team projections. I was able to access them using the Wayback Machine. The goal here: what’s more predictive, between three months of performance and updated team projections? I have just two years of data, meaning a team sample of 60, but we can at least see what’s there.

Conclusion isn’t surprising: standings are pretty predictive, pythag is just about the same, projections are a little bit better.  But the predictiveness of a team’s record at three months is MUCH higher than it was in his previous study that looked at the two-month record. Basically, at two months there’s a good chance that divergence from predictions are just noise. At three months, there’s a pretty good bet that it’s real.

Baldrick Posted: July 10, 2015 at 03:03 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff sullivan, projections, pythag



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