Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Jim Johnson Newsbeat

Friday, August 01, 2014

Neyer: The Jim Johnson Gambit fails

Gambit always fails.

Last winter, Matt Murphy noticed that a bunch of teams were signing veteran closers to good-sized contracts, even though the clubs already had impressive young closers-in-waiting. Was this merely fealty to Proven Closers run rampant? Or was something else going on?

Murphy focused on the A’s and found something else. Something really interesting. Murphy found that paying a veteran now means saving millions of dollars later, because your impressive young closers-in-waiting, if kept in setup roles for an extra season or two, won’t make as much money in the arbitration process. Because the arbitration is skewed, however ridiculously, toward saves.

Running the numbers, Murphy figured the A’s would save roughly $7 million on closer-in-waiting Ryan Cook’s salaries during his arbitration years, merely by keeping him out of the closer role in 2014. They’re paying [Jim] Johnson $10 million this season. But $10 million minus $7 million equals $3 million ... or Johnson’s effective cost in 2014…

I like the theory. But relief pitchers, leaving aside the elite, might just be too unstable for testing a theory that might cost you $10 million. Not to mention a few critical victories.

The District Attorney Posted: August 01, 2014 at 03:35 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Beats: jim johnson, rob neyer, ryan cook, sean doolittle, strategy

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Downtown Bookie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1185 - 4:30am, Nov 28)
Last: Dan The Mediocre

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8725 - 3:32am, Nov 28)
Last: Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(5074 - 3:21am, Nov 28)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogBoston Red Sox prove (once again) that competitive balance in baseball will never exist | cleveland.com
(42 - 3:03am, Nov 28)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogDave Cameron: A proposed three-way swap for Red Sox, Mariners, Nationals
(53 - 1:58am, Nov 28)
Last: DJS and the Infinite Sadness

Newsblog[Cricketer NOT baseball player] Phil Hughes dies after “pitch” to the head
(13 - 1:53am, Nov 28)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Hall of Merit2014 Results: Maddux, Thomas and Glavine elected to the Hall of Merit!
(82 - 1:19am, Nov 28)
Last: Bleed the Freak

NewsblogOT:  Soccer (the Round, True Football), November 2014
(549 - 1:05am, Nov 28)
Last: Sean Forman

Hall of Merit2015 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(57 - 12:52am, Nov 28)
Last: Bleed the Freak

NewsblogOT - November 2014 College Football thread
(597 - 12:19am, Nov 28)
Last: Spivey

NewsblogSource: Tomas agrees to six-year deal with D-backs | MLB.com
(24 - 12:15am, Nov 28)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogShould the Red Sox Be Afraid of Hanley Ramirez Being Hanley Ramirez? - Red Sox - Boston.com
(34 - 10:52pm, Nov 27)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogSandy Alderson says Mets can move quickly if a shortstop becomes available - NY Daily News
(37 - 9:15pm, Nov 27)
Last: Arbitol Dijaler

Newsblog2015 Potential Hall of Fame Ballot | Baseball-Reference.com
(33 - 6:45pm, Nov 27)
Last: shoewizard

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(85 - 4:43pm, Nov 27)
Last: Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge

Page rendered in 0.9290 seconds
47 querie(s) executed