Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Marcel Newsbeat

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Grading the projections: 2016

ZiPS didn’t have a good year. ZiPS was the least accurate of the three systems in each of the five categories, and never by a particularly small margin. You don’t want to conclude too much based on a single season of results, but ZiPS didn’t perform very well in last year’s review, either. (I should also note that this is Steamer’s second straight year of leading the pack in convincing fashion.)

Marcel does its job. Marcel wasn’t great, but it was almost always in the neighborhood of accurate. It beat ZiPS in four of the five categories, and even led OBP. Marcel remains very hard to convincingly beat (or even beat at all), despite its simplicity.

Averaging the projections might be a great idea. The “Average” row in the above table is exactly what you would expect: the accuracy of the average of all four systems. It beats all four systems in four of the five categories, and fell short of only Steamer in the fifth. One would expect that an average would rarely be egregiously wrong; it’s surprising to see that the average also tended to be closer to right than each individual projection. This could be a quirk of a single season of projections, but at the very least, it seems to say that the brute-force method of resolving differences between the projection systems is credible.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2017 at 11:34 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: marcel, pecota, steamer, zips

 

 

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogFormer Senator, baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning has died
(84 - 1:17am, May 30)
Last: Best Dressed Chicken in Town

NewsblogMike Trout sprains thumb in Angels’ loss to Marlins
(54 - 1:03am, May 30)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogIt is for us the living to be dedicated here to the unfinished OMNICHATTER, May 29, 2017
(75 - 12:56am, May 30)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogChicago Cubs say slow start offers 'no need to worry'
(36 - 12:55am, May 30)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogSenator Jim Bunning Dies at 85
(1 - 12:39am, May 30)
Last: Hank G.

NewsblogStephen Strasburg sets career high with 15 K's | MLB.com
(14 - 12:38am, May 30)
Last: Best Dressed Chicken in Town

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(4433 - 12:26am, May 30)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogOTP 29 May 2017: Should we double check with Rod Laver?
(119 - 11:58pm, May 29)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogFrank Deford, legendary sportswriter and commentator, dies at 78
(20 - 11:54pm, May 29)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble

NewsblogOT: March-April 2017 Soccer Thread
(563 - 10:42pm, May 29)
Last: He who brought the butter dish to Balshazar (CoB)

NewsblogOTP 22 May 2017: George W. Bush photobombs a sports reporter
(1731 - 9:51pm, May 29)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogScott Boras says Jake Arrieta still elite pitcher even though velocity has dropped
(29 - 8:34pm, May 29)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogHomer Simpson inducted into Baseball Hall of Fame
(44 - 8:09pm, May 29)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogDodgers Alex Wood placed on disabled list | MLB.com
(15 - 7:28pm, May 29)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogYankees ticket sales plunge; New York has lost $166 million since 2009 | SI.com
(32 - 3:11pm, May 29)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Page rendered in 0.8506 seconds
45 querie(s) executed