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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Cameron: The Market for Offense Might Be Overcorrecting

And we probably haven’t seen the last of deals like this. If Rasmus can only get $5 million, and no one would take Seth Smith at $7 million, how does Brandon Moss ask for significantly more? What kind of offers are Carter and Pedro Alvarez going to get in a world where similar hitters with better defensive abilities are settling for cut-rate contracts just to land a job.

On the one hand, we could look at deals like this and think that perhaps the market has decided to pay less than the roughly $8 million per win rate for marginal starters, preferring to save their money for better players overall. But this downturn in spending on +1 WAR veterans only shows up when we look at bat-first 1B/OF/DH types.

...

The market has long overpaid one-dimensional power hitters. This, though, feels like more than just a simple market correction. When perfectly useful players on one year deals for $7 million can’t get moved for even a non-prospect, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far the other way. It’s time to jump on this, contenders; these bargains won’t last forever.

I’ve been thinking something similar for a while. This seems to go beyond mere WAR valuations. Contra: Dave Kingman and Rob Deer bounced around.

Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:10 PM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency, markets, moneyball, sluggers, tulips

Monday, December 19, 2016

OTP: 19 December 2016: The book about baseball that explains Donald Trump’s win

If there’s anything that the political market is full of, it’s inefficiencies. And the Trump team, to its credit, understood just that. The easy story to tell about Trump is one of a billionaire bully who preyed on prejudice to push the first female president out of the White House. But there’s another story to be told, one about an underdog campaign that raised about half as much money as its opponent and managed to win anyway, in part by disregarding common campaigning strategies and focusing on the inherent inefficiencies of the electoral college.

Alec Baldwin takes a team of lovable misfits …?

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

 

BDC Posted: December 19, 2016 at 09:25 AM | 1445 comment(s)
  Beats: moneyball, never shouldda written, politics

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Winning in MLB is harder when everyone is smarter - SweetSpot- ESPN

A lot of good stuff. Read the whole thing.

Teams in the more recent period not only had a lower average win total in the 90-win season, but suffered a bigger decline the following season, were less likely to win more games or to win 90 again and more likely to have a losing season. Winning now is more ephemeral: Winning 92 games and making the playoffs as opposed to winning 85 and falling short is often not just the residue of clever team-building, but to the vagaries of luck, injuries and random career seasons.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 10, 2016 at 07:43 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Beats: dave dombrowski, moneyball, red sox, sabermetrics

 

 

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