Nate Silver Newsbeat
Sunday, July 28, 2013
I am currently a coach with a professional team managed by… for privacy’s sake, let’s call him “Dusty B.” No, that’s too obvious… let’s say “D. Baker.”
Is the contract year phenomenon real? DO players really play better in the final years of their contract?
There’s a divergence. They play better and worse. Overall about the same, but there are more big years and more absolutely awful years.
Do you think Randy Johnson is the greatest lefty since Grove? He’s been retired for three and a half years now, and to me he doesn’t (and didn’t) seem to get as much hype as he could have, despite five Cy Youngs and a very long and successful career. (Maybe it was his sunny personality and dashing good looks.) I think he compares pretty favorably to Carlton, Koufax and Spahn.
He does. . . .he has the effectiveness of Koufax in a longer career. It’s the steroid era, you know. Records were being broken left, right and center, not to mention left-center and right-center, and there wasn’t time to focus on them.
Are you familiar with Nate Silvers Five Thirty Eight? It is his player prediction model, and it has a good buzz. Do you use it yourself? DO MLB teams use it?
Well. . .538 is a lot more than the player projection model, and 538 has more than a “buzz”. I know Nate, sure. He’s built a very nice career. Major league teams look at all serious projections.
Hey Bill, I am currently an assistant coach with a colligate summer team. When being an assistant coach at any college level I have always been surrounded by “traditionalist” baseball minds, as I am sure you can relate to more than anyone, what approach did you use when expressing your ideas to others? I dont want to force anything onto anyone but sitting back watching my team sac bunt every game is killing me.
You have to look for people who are receptive. It may be 2%; it may be 10%, but you have to find those people and talk to them.
The people who are committed to old ideas will not change them, ever, and it’s worse than a waste of time to try to persuade them to do so. It makes enemies. You just have to look for the openings; look for the topics on which they are uncertain, look for the people who will listen. Good luck to you.
Hey Bill, with Hank O’Day being enshrined into the Hall next weekend, I’ve been thinking about umpires and their worthiness. For the life of me, I can’t figure it out. Have you ever tried to work out a metric for umpires, like a HOF Monitor or a HOF Standards for them? All-Star and World Series appearances, along with longevity, seem to be factors, but I’m befuddled.
The onus to explain what the standards are should be on the people who want to put umpires in there to begin with. If you don’t know WHY an umpire should be in the Hall, you shouldn’t be pushing to get him in there. But as long as you’re not arguing to put umpires in the Hall of Fame. ..well, why do you need standards?
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