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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Which Players Will Be Most Affected by the Hall of Fame’s New Rules?

To read the chart, scan across until you find a player’s vote share in his first year of eligibility — then scan up to see where the various curves intersect it. For instance, for a player like Mussina who got 20 percent of the vote in his first year:

There is a 10 percent chance he gets elected within his first 10 years of BBWAA eligibility, according to the regression analysis. (This is the yellow curve.)
There is a 23 percent chance he gets elected within the 15-year eligibility window. (The red curve.)
There is a 34 percent chance he gets elected by either the BBWAA or eventually by the Veterans Committee. (The blue curve.)

Worth reading the whole thing, imo.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 29, 2014 at 12:36 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: nate silver

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Fivethirtyeight: Derek Jeter And the Other Worst All-Star Starters of the Past 40 Years

Wait Mark Loretta was an All-Star? Mark Loretta was an All-Star STARTER?????

Forty-year-old Cal Ripken Jr.’s 2001 All-Star Game start was awarded purely out of legacy, and it’s been frequently compared to Jeter’s this week. Ripken, however, had the worst first half of any All-Star Game starter from the past four decades, having played much worse than Jeter has thus far in 2014. Ripken’s first-half triple-slash line in 2001 was .240/.270/.324 (good for a 56 Weighted Runs Created Plus); Jeter’s 2014 line is .272/.324/.322 (80 wRC+), despite playing in a more difficult offensive environment. Jeter may not be playing like a typical All-Star, but he hasn’t been as bad as Ripken was at the same age.

Perhaps more interesting is the fact not all – or even most — ill-advised All-Star starting picks went to sentimental selections. Of the 50 worst starters listed above, there are more players under age 30 (18) than 35-or-older (16). For most of the prime-aged players who started the All-Star Game despite poor first halves, though, their presence can be explained by a good season the year prior. This phenomenon is fueled by baseball’s long-standing confusion over whether the All-Star Game is supposed to honor the players who played best in the first half of the season in question, those who played best since the previous All-Star Game, or simply the best players in general.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 15, 2014 at 05:44 PM | 72 comment(s)
  Beats: all-star, derek jeter, nate silver, yankees

 

 

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