Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Nate Silver Newsbeat

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Cameron: Let’s Talk About the Phillies’ Playoff Odds (!)

According to Dave, Martin O’Malley might have a better chance of being the Democrat nominee.

See that flat line across the bottom? That’s the Phillies. Their 24-17 start hasn’t moved the needle, at all, on our forecasts expectations for their chances of reaching the postseason. Okay, that’s not exactly true; they’ve gone from a 0.1% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots in our preseason forecast all the way up to a 0.3% chance of getting to the play-in game now. But their odds of hanging on to the NL East? Still close enough zero to round down when displaying one decimal point.

This is, to some, puzzling. A question in my chat yesterday brought up the point that our system is far more bearish on the Phillies hot start leading to postseason success than others; Baseball Prospectus gives them a 2.3% chance of winning the division and a 7.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, for 10% overall odds of reaching the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish than that, putting them at 4% to win the NL East and 13% to reach the postseason. So why is our system so stubborn relative to others attempting to look into the same crystal ball in order to see what the final standings will look like in October?

Well, it’s worth noting that there are dramatic methodological differences between the way that we (and BP) do our forecasts and the way FiveThirtyEight is doing theirs. Our forecasts are essentially an amalgamation of individual player projections, summed up at the team level; BP does this same thing too, using their PECOTA projections where we use a mix of ZIPS of Steamer. FiveThirtyEight, on the other hand, is using Elo Ratings, which adjust up or down based on whether you win or lose a game, and how much of an upset that win (or loss) was relative to their pre-game expectations. While they used individual player projections to come up with their preseason Elo ratings, their in-season adjustments are based on responding to a team’s win-loss record.

Our system doesn’t care at all about a team’s actual record at any point in the season; it only looks at the individual player performances to try and ascertain whether there have been significant changes in expected playing time or production level to adjust the team’s expected record up or down. So far, ZIPS and Steamer look at what the Phillies players are doing and think “yeah, that’s basically what we expected.” Our preseason expected win% for the Phillies was .395; 41 games into the season, our rest-of-season expected win% for the Phillies is .396. And because they were starting from such a low baseline of expected wins, even their extra banked wins through the first six weeks don’t really change how often they make the postseason in our simulations; the strong start has taken them from 64 to 72 projected wins, but nobody’s making the playoffs at 72 wins, or anything close to it.


Monday, January 25, 2016

OTP - 2016 January 25: A vanishing line separates politics and sports

Serious science has also increasingly treated politics as sports. In 2012, the political scientist John Sides of George Washington University explained that he derived approach to research from baseball, specifically from Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball,” in which a baseball manager abandons the “gut feeling” school of selecting players and starts relying exclusively on arcane but important statistics. Sides wrote:

“My goal with the study of elections is to move things as close as possible towards ‘Moneyball,’ which is to say I want to measure what’s going on, I want to measure the background conditions and the fundamentals that are important in any election, like the economy. I want to measure the news coverage, I want to measure the campaign advertising, all of the things that convey information to the voters about the candidates, and then finally I want to measure the voters themselves, I want to understand why they made the choices they did and what impact, if any, the campaign had.”

Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant Posted: January 25, 2016 at 08:06 AM | 2612 comment(s)
  Beats: moneyball, nate silver, politics

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Empathy, I Promise You (SBB)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(2707 - 1:17pm, May 29)
Last: JC in DC

Gonfalon CubsThis and That
(72 - 1:16pm, May 29)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogAtkins on Blue Jays’ reputation: ‘I think we’re misunderstood’ - Sportsnet.ca
(29 - 1:12pm, May 29)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogSyndergaard ejection exposes MLB's lack of consistency | FOX Sports
(9 - 1:08pm, May 29)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogTwins suspend pitching coach Neil Allen after DWI arrest
(20 - 1:05pm, May 29)
Last: bigglou115

NewsblogCarlos Beltrán, 400 Home Runs, 2,500 Hits, and The Hall of Fame
(14 - 1:03pm, May 29)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOTP 2016 May 23: Baseball owners hear from Democratic, Republican strategists
(1353 - 12:57pm, May 29)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogPadres discussing potential James Shields trade with White Sox | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
(1 - 12:56pm, May 29)
Last: PASTE Transcends Almost All Generations (Zeth)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 5-29-16
(3 - 12:39pm, May 29)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogEpic fall: Royals score seven in ninth to stun White Sox
(38 - 12:13pm, May 29)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogHow are you liking the decision to keep Matt Wieters now? - BaltimoreBaseball.com
(2 - 11:43am, May 29)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogTerse Clay Buchholz doesn't appear happy with move to bullpen | Boston Herald
(5 - 11:39am, May 29)
Last: Leroy Kincaid

NewsblogQuestions for the Cubs before they open a giant outdoor bar | Chicago Sun-Times
(12 - 10:30am, May 29)
Last: scarymonsters85

NewsblogMets are getting defensive about Dodgers' outfield tactics
(6 - 9:54am, May 29)
Last: JEe (Jason)

NewsblogRemington: How to Lose Fans and Alienate People: The 2016 Atlanta Braves
(14 - 9:18am, May 29)
Last: bfan

Page rendered in 1.0263 seconds
50 querie(s) executed