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Saturday, April 19, 2014

I Don’t Care If I Ever Get Back — And I Might Not

Games averaged two hours and 56 minutes in 2011 and three hours flat in 2012. They tacked on four more minutes last year — even as runs per game fell, to 4.17 from 4.32 the year before. And games this year, with the advent of instant replay, have added another three and a half minutes on average, through Sunday.
...
The pace is slowing. The average break between pitches was 21.6 seconds three years ago, 22.1 seconds two years ago and 22.6 seconds last year, according to FanGraphs. Taking into account the number of pitches per game, the slowing pace could account for five of the eight minutes tacked on to the average game between 2011 and 2013.

He also presents data showing that Yankee-Red Sox games are slower than any other matchup.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 19, 2014 at 01:29 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: nate silver

Thursday, April 03, 2014

Four Strikes And You’re Out

Ahead in the count with one ball and two strikes, Thornton froze Peralta with a slider on the outside half of the plate, a couple inches below the belt. For a pitch like that, the umpire, Bruce Dreckman, would normally call a strike — 80 percent of the time, the data shows. But in two-strike counts like Peralta’s, he calls a strike less than half the time.

This article goes on to give a quantification of the count dependent strike zone.

TL;DR version: On two strike counts, boarder line pitches are called balls at a rate of twenty percentage points lower than normal. On three ball counts they’re called strikes at a rate 10 percentage points higher. He did not look at the 3-0 in particular which by my observation results in enormous strike zones.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 03, 2014 at 08:21 PM | 92 comment(s)
  Beats: nate silver

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Baseball’s Most Surprising Seasons, Good And Bad

PLAYER YEAR AGE PROJ. WOBA ACTUAL WOBA PERCENTILE
Travis Hafner 2008 31 .387 .270 0.0
Andruw Jones 2008 31 .350 .238 0.0

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 18, 2014 at 11:49 AM | 35 comment(s)
  Beats: nate silver

 

 

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