Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Oldwarhorse Newsbeat

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Washington Post: Mike Hessman Sets Minor League Career HR Record

Maybe someone will make a movie?

Mike Hessman’s dedication to playing professional baseball never resulted in an extended stay in the major leagues, and it looks like it never will. However, that dedication paid off Monday night, as the 37-year-old broke a noteworthy minor-league record that had stood for almost 80 years. Playing for the Toledo Mud Hens, Hessman hit a grand slam for his 433rd career home run in the minors. That topped the career total of Russell “Buzz” Arlett, who played from 1918 to 1937.

Hessman was mobbed by teammates at home plate after his seventh-inning homer, and they doused him in champagne after the game.
.  .  .
Hessman is one of just four players ever to hit more than 400 home runs in the minor leagues. Since 2010, he has played for Buffalo, Oklahoma City, Louisville and Toledo, plus he spent 2011 playing in Japan. In all, Hessman has played in over 2,000 minor-league games.

I hope he got more than champagne for his achievement.


Wednesday, April 22, 2015

The Economist: One Swing is All You Need

Hold off on the glue.

However, the sabermetric canon also includes a caveat to “Voros’s law” about the volatility of small sample sizes. Although the overwhelming majority of events that can transpire in baseball over a brief time period cannot be distinguished statistically from random variation, a handful of accomplishments are so rare that even a single game can contain impressive predictive power. Bill James, the father of modern baseball analysis, called this principle “signature significance”. In one well-known example, of the 14 pitchers who have struck out 18 or more batters in a nine-inning game during the past century, 12 were at least All-Stars, and six are in the Hall of Fame. Mr Rodríguez’s mammoth blast might well be a similar case. After all, of the 38,143 homers hit in MLB since 2007—the first year that HitTracker recorded the path of every ball to leave the yard—just 25 (0.06%, or one in 1,525) traveled 477 feet or more. ...

In order to determine how much predictive power a single deep home run can provide, I started with every batter who played between 2007 and 2014. I first discarded all their ground balls and pop-ups, since balls on those trajectories cannot become homers no matter how hard they are hit. I then measured the share of their other batted balls—the line drives and outfield flies—that turned into home runs, a standard measure of a batter’s power. If ultra-long home runs truly have signature significance, then players who hit even one ball as deep as Mr Rodríguez’s should fare well above average in this category over the course of an entire season.

As one might expect, the data were extremely noisy—using a single swing to project what will happen on as many as 300 others is a tall order. But buried within them was a powerful and highly statistically significant trend. For each foot beyond the distance of a league-average longball (usually just under 400 feet) that any individual home run travels, an additional 0.06% of that batter’s other line drives and outfield fly balls in that season become home runs (see chart).

In most cases, this amounts to a rounding error. But for the biggest of blows, those percentage points add up in a hurry. If a player about whom we had no other information—say, a recent arrival from Cuba—hit a home run of average distance in his first at-bat, we would expect him to hit about 6% more homers than an average player for the rest of the season. In contrast, if the player hit a 477-foot home run like Mr Rodríguez’s in his first at-bat, we would expect him to hit around 50% more homers than average. That is as strong an example of signature significance as one could hope to find.

JE (Jason) Posted: April 22, 2015 at 09:43 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: a-rod, oldwarhorse, yankees

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JPWF13
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMatt Williams Defends Bullpen Management.
(42 - 1:40am, Sep 03)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogBat Flipping Draws Shrugs in South Korea But Scorn in America
(17 - 1:39am, Sep 03)
Last: baudib

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - August 2015
(177 - 1:34am, Sep 03)
Last: RollingWave

NewsblogOTP - September 2015: Making Sense Of The Republican Presidential Race: It's Like Major League Baseball In August
(296 - 1:03am, Sep 03)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-2-15
(122 - 12:52am, Sep 03)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

NewsblogBack to School: The Science Behind Toronto Flamethrower Marcus Stroman’s Rapid ACL Recovery «
(3 - 11:56pm, Sep 02)
Last: dejarouehg

NewsblogBatting title would put Cabrera in elite club | FOX Sports
(70 - 11:45pm, Sep 02)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

Newsblog‘Yankees Suck! Yankees Suck!’ «
(16 - 10:57pm, Sep 02)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogKelvin Herrera, Alex Rios infected as chickenpox hits Royals’ clubhouse
(26 - 10:32pm, Sep 02)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogGrant: Why Rangers prospect Joey Gallo struggled in Triple-A after first stint in majors | Dallas Morning News
(2 - 10:12pm, Sep 02)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogForbes: Maury Brown: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Rejects Reinstatement Of 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson
(60 - 8:18pm, Sep 02)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

NewsblogMike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?
(75 - 7:46pm, Sep 02)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogDon’t let Bird’s bad night jump-start terrible A-Rod experiment | New York Post
(25 - 7:33pm, Sep 02)
Last: willcarrolldoesnotsuk

NewsblogNotable Sept. 1 Callups - BaseballAmerica.com
(17 - 7:15pm, Sep 02)
Last: cardsfanboy

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1908 Ballot
(7 - 7:11pm, Sep 02)
Last: John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy

Page rendered in 0.2031 seconds
48 querie(s) executed