SoE (Megdal): It’s Time to Finally Believe in the Orioles

Primer’s own Mr. Megdal takes a break from his contractually obligated ball-busting of the Wilpons to point out that Serious You Guys, the Orioles really are a pretty solid team now:

BALTIMORE—A pair of diametrically opposed views exists about the Baltimore Orioles, 2012’s winner of 93 games and a playoff spot, off to another strong start in 2013.

Outside the Baltimore area, skeptics abound. Sure, the Orioles won 93 games, but their Pythagorean record—a measure of expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed—had them at 82 wins, barely breaking even. Then the Orioles did little this winter to add any talent. Thus came the belief that the Orioles are simply some kind of team of destiny, not talent, and not a real contender.

Or as ESPN’s Keith Law put it last September: “There’s literally nothing that the Orioles can do to convince me that they are a good team. They’re like the eighth best team in the American League.”

Well then.

But for a team living on destiny and despite the certainty of Keith Law, these Orioles are playing pretty well. This season, even after a pair of losses to the San Diego Padres on Tuesday and Wednesday, they are 23-17, just two games out of first place in the AL East, and tied for one of the wild card spots. And their underlying performance supports the record: their Pythagorean record is also 23-17.

Ask the Orioles, or many of their fans, whether they are still waiting for the bottom to drop from under this baseball season, and you’ll get a series of blank stares. The Orioles have played like contenders for 200 games now. Isn’t that enough?

PressBox: Boog Powell: Meat Of The Order

Eeeww, grotle. Now I’m touch and go on pulling out the Blüd Sausage EP.

Ever since Powell entered the major leagues in 1961, Orioles fans have known him as an affable giant, whose Popeye-esque muscles and robust 6-foot-4 frame stood in stark contrast with his easy smile and kind-hearted demeanor. For 14 years, Powell readily accommodated the Baltimore aficionados, signing autographs by day, swatting homers by night. So beloved was Powell that even after he went to Cleveland in 1975, toward the end of his career, he didn’t leave Orioles fans’ hearts.

No, he didn’t have Hall of Fame numbers like Brooks Robinson’s, Frank Robinson’s or Jim Palmer’s, but Powell was an icon, as much for his 339 home runs and steady play at first base as for his unbridled joy on the diamond.

About 18 years after Powell left the Orioles as a player, he returned as a restaurateur by opening Boog’s in conjunction with the christening of Camden Yards. Save for a few select occasions and a stint with colon cancer in 1997—he spent part of his recovery period concocting new hot-sauce recipes—Powell’s been there ever since. He’s a living, breathing, tangible legend who’ll strike up a conversation with random passersby and listen intently to stories he’s heard 200 times before.

Although he often loses track, Powell estimated that he signs anywhere from 300 to 500 autographs during the 45 minutes or so leading up to game time. With the barbecue stand humming in the background, he perches himself on a high stool with a Miller Lite umbrella and welcomes folks in like a grandfather at Christmas.

“It took me a while to get used to being with the fans every day,” Powell said, “but I’ve come to the realization that my mission is more or less to make them feel good about being there. I especially enjoy the young people, and I’ve got young people coming now that have pictures they took with me 20 years ago. Thing is, they’re not little kids anymore—they’re adults. They say, ‘God I remember going to see you when I was 5 years old, and you were so much fun and it was cool that you did that for me.’ So I think I give people a good impression, sort of lift them up.”

...But considering how much Powell has given to Baltimore, sometimes it seems as if he gets lost among the other Orioles greats. There is no statue of Powell in Orioles Legends Park, which houses statues of the ballclub’s six Hall of Famers; he doesn’t have a television presence, à la former Baltimore catcher Rick Dempsey; and he isn’t one to give speeches during special anniversary days.

MASN: Machado on Machado

Manny o’ WAR: Stud record.

On leading the league in WAR:

“You’ve got to play baseball. That’s the main thing. We don’t think about the stats. You don’t think about (WAR) and all that other junk there is out there. Go out there and play baseball and win games. That’s the main goal. This organization, we’re out here to win games and be better every day.”

On at least temporarily leading the league in hits:

“I didn’t know that. Just go out there and keep playing. It’s still a long season to go. It’s only a month and a half into the season. There are six more months. There is a lot of baseball left to be played. Just go out there and keep playing.”

FanGraphs: Q&A: Dennis Martinez, El Presidente Legacy

Pontoon points out ~ “Dennis Martinez ERA+106/4000 IP ~ Jack Morris ERA+105/3800 IP”.

On his legacy: “I think maybe I am [underappreciated]. I don’t feel I got the credit I deserved, maybe because of where I came from. I was a Spanish-speaking kid from Nicaragua who didn‘t understand the language real well, and I got a reputation in the Orioles organization as a hot-headed pitcher who didn’t want to go along with the system. The reason was that I fought for my rights. I fought for what I believed. I had to battle with that, but God made me the way I am. I rely on myself a lot. Everything I got, I had to work hard for.

“And then, I played for the Montreal Expos, a Canadian team. Playing for a low-market-city team, people don’t hear about you too much. The team wasn’t like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox, or the Dodgers, who get exposure all over all the world. I was hiding somewhere in Montreal. But I felt comfortable — I felt good — to play for that country and that city. I liked to pitch there. I didn’t mind anything else, I just wanted to pitch good for those people.

“Later, I broke Juan Marichal’s record for most wins by a Latin American pitcher. I am proud of that. I am also thankful.”

Connolly: Are you ready to include Machado among the best young players?

Woo-hoo! I smell a “The Chris Davis Kidnap Caper” episode on tap!

Five major league scouts — three from the National League, two from the American League and none from Washington, Baltimore or Los Angeles — were asked this week to rank those players in order of preference if they could select just one to build a club around.

“That’s like asking me which Charlie’s Angel I’d most want,” one veteran scout quipped. “All three are so very good, young, talented and play the game the right way. If I got any of the three as a consolation prize, I wouldn’t be disappointed.”

Two scouts ranked the order as Harper, Trout and Machado; two had it Trout, Machado and Harper and one ranked it Harper, Machado and Trout. One scout said he’d take the Boston Red Sox’s shortstop prospect, 20-year-old Xander Bogaerts, third, a spot ahead of Machado.

Other names that were mentioned included the Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, 23; Pittsburgh Pirates’ Starling Marte, 24; and St. Louis Cardinals’ Oscar Taveras, 20. But four of the five scouts polled said there is clearly a Big Three (with Machado included).

Both scouts who ranked Machado second and Trout first said they would flip-flop the two if Machado returned to his natural position of shortstop and played it as well as he plays third.

Rosenthal: Machado, 20, excelling as young star

Latest Robothal…including some horning around.

• Francona loves the willingness of veterans such as Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds and Mike Aviles to move between multiple positions without complaint. He says of the effervescent Swisher, “Just when it seems you need a little encouragement, he’s standing right there.”

• Designated hitter Adam Dunn on the White Sox, who entered Tuesday ranked last in the AL in runs per game (3.47), last in on-base percentage (.283) and next-to-last in slugging (.379): “I’ve never seen anything like it. There literally is not one guy swinging the bat good. It’s embarrassing.”

• Best player in the Blue Jays-Marlins blockbuster? So far it’s Marlins Class A right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 0.70 ERA in six starts for Jupiter in the Florida State League. Righty Justin Nicolino, the more celebrated pitching prospect in the deal, has a 4.25 ERA at Jupiter.

• Right-hander Chris Bootcheck, currently pitching for the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, leads the International League with a 0.60 ERA after five starts. Bootcheck, 34, is throwing five pitches for strikes (fastball, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup). A former first-round pick of the Angels, he could surface with the Yankees at some point.

• And finally, one more word about Machado’s defense. Through Monday, the only defenders in the game with better plus-minus ratings were Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez and Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (plus-14), Brewers right fielder Norichika Aoki (plus-13) and Marlins left fielder Juan Pierre and Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock (plus-12).

Hardballtalk: Hank Conger bunted, fell down, and was safe anyway

Stan “The Fan” Charles: Roberto Alomar A Hall Of Famer, But Not For Orioles

Wonder if Stan “The Fan” would consent to lie detector test about Alomar dogging it?

By 1998, Johnson was gone, replaced by skipper Ray Miller. Gillick, although still on duty, was barely heard from as he waited out his time to get out of Baltimore. Alomar, for his part, was a shell of his old self. Embittered by a fine that Johnson had levied against him at the All-Star Break in ‘97—incidentally, it was Johnson’s fine that ultimately cost him his job—Alomar went through the motions for much of 1998, batting.282 with 51 extra base-hits, 86 runs scored and 56 RBIs, despite playing 147 games.

Alomar’s swan-song season left an indelible impression on this observer. Even though he had caused the organization disrepute, been part of Johnson’s departure and received support from owner Peter Angelos during the spitting incident, Alomar repaid the Orioles with what amounted to a sit-down season.

How do I know this? By watching Alomar play that season, and watching how fast Gillick let him go to Cleveland. Surprise, surprise, there he was in Cleveland from 1999-2001, back to his old self as pretty much the best player in the game.

...I have no problem with Alomar’s enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame. But when the Orioles announced May 1 that Alomar would be inducted into the club’s Hall of Fame, I did have a gripe with that.

Had he stayed longer in Baltimore and played the way he was capable of playing, Alomar would be deserving of a place in the Orioles Hall of Fame. But because he was so transient and didn’t always give his best effort, I have a problem with his selection.

I am a voting member for the Orioles Hall, and I take that seriously. This one just rubs me the wrong way.

Henneman: MLB Should Abolish Quality Start From Statistics

This should be acted out in full Rick Santelli sub-human meltdown fashion.

One thing I like about listening to Jim Palmer on the Orioles’ telecasts is he’s not afraid to beat a topic to death if he feels strongly about it. For instance, take the so-called “quality start.”

Take it. Please, take it. Pretty please.

Take it and bury it along with every other irrelevant statistic you can imagine. You think the game-winning RBI was meaningless? That little number was a sabermetric gem compared with the QS. You don’t like the three-run lead, one-inning save rule? That’s a testimony to efficiency compared with the dreaded QS.

John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press is a good friend. He’s also the guy who invented the quality start, for which Palmer and I will never forgive him. It’s usually a good idea to be on Palmer’s side in a baseball discussion (usually, that is, not always), but his recent rant about the merit of a pitcher being rewarded for pitching six innings and allowing “only” three earned runs was so on target it begged for the term “quality start” to be relegated to the statistical dump.

...As Palmer pointed out, the major league earned run average hovers around the 4.00 mark. That’s lumping all the Justin Verlanders and Joe Blantons together and coming up with a 4.00 ERA, which, as it turns out, isn’t even the mean in MLB these days. Currently no fewer than 19 of the 30 major league teams (and nine of 15 in the American League) have an earned run average of 3.79 or less. And that’s not a fluke: 16 teams were less than 4.00 last year, 23 of them at 4.30 or less, identical numbers as 2011.

In its heyday, a quality start basically rewarded mediocrity. It passed the sniff test then only because pitchers were deemed to be vulnerable to steroid-stuffing sluggers. At its best, a quality start was no better than average, in other words a zero WAA (if you need it explained, you haven’t been paying attention).

The time has come to stop equating quality with average and mediocrity. I nominate Palmer to lead the charge to abolish the dreaded QS, a statistic that has lasted far beyond its time.

Robert Andino has fond memory of Orioles — even after they traded him to ‘Alaska’

Hell, I had a plum Gov-job lined up for the building of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (plays taps)...and I didn’t go.

His RBI single to close the 2011 season and knock the Boston Red Sox out of the pennant chase — known as the “Curse of the Andino” — will forever be remembered by Baltimore’s fans. He smiled when told he is part Orioles lore.

“It’s cool. I did something for them,” Andino said. “They showed me the love, so I’m good with it. I’m cool.”

Andino said he couldn’t choose one memory that was his favorite while with the Orioles — not even that game-winning hit.

“All of them, man. All of them,” he said. “Baltimore is basically where I started my career. I got a lot of good memories in Baltimore.”

...Andino also has talked a couple times with Orioles manager Buck Showalter, whom he gives credit for helping him become a full-fledged major leaguer.

“I know he’s a busy man and he’s got a season in front of him. But yeah, me and Buck had a good relationship,” Andino said. “I talked to him before [the year started] and thanked him for giving me the opportunity. Again, it is what it is. We’re here. I don’t know what day it is, but it’s a new year.”

Andino’s offbeat sense of humor remains intact even if he is on a new coast. A Miami native who hates the cold, Andino joked that he was traded to “Alaska.” And when asked if he keeps tabs on how the Orioles and his old teammates are playing, he said, “I got kids. I don’t got no time to be checking out other people.”

Dan Duquette says his Montreal Expos were ‘Moneyball 1’

MoneyDUKE: I made baseball as much fun as re-doing your taxes.

Much has been made about Beane’s infatuation with on-base percentage — that was a major focus of the book and movie — and Duquette is also a big fan of seeking out hitters with high OBPs. But this current Orioles club isn’t exactly an on-base machine — with a .324 mark heading into the road trip.

“We are still working on that,” he said with a laugh.

Duquette points out that OBP was something he focused on when he was building those Montreal clubs, but the concept pre-dates his tenure and Moneyball’s rise.

“These things are getting a lot of publicity. But [Orioles Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver] recognized the value of on-base percentage. You have to have guys on base before you score runs,” Duquette said. “So they were popularized in the mainstream by Moneyball, but we were using a lot of the same tenets in the early 90s. We had to.”

Duquette said he watched the “Moneyball” movie and enjoyed it. But if he had one criticism it’s that he believed Beane’s true success in building the A’s was compiling a three-headed pitching monster of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. The acquisition of high-OBP guys like Scott Hatteberg was secondary to the A’s ascension, Duquette believes.

“Billy has been able to bring up some really good pitching from the farm system. He has a really good feeder program through his player development,” Duquette said. “We have been able to get some decent pitching from our farm system, but Billy is a little bit ahead of us in the numbers.”

Davidi on Jays: Playing the waivers game

Maybe Frenchy can hook up Burnett with some Delta miles.

Go back to last October and the number reaches 20, making general manager Alex Anthopoulos the undisputed heavyweight champion of the baseball world in bottom-feeding.

“Alex claims everybody,” Baltimore Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said with a hearty laugh…..

While clever from a management perspective, it can be trying for players caught in the cycle, like right-hander Alex Burnett.

Claimed by the Blue Jays from the Minnesota Twins on March 29 and immediately optioned to triple-A Buffalo, he was designated for assignment April 10 when Anthopoulos claimed Casper Wells from Seattle, was claimed by the Orioles on April 12 and immediately optioned to triple-A Norfolk, and recalled Monday by Baltimore.

Forget about things from a career perspective for a minute, and imagine all that personal upheaval in the span of three weeks.

“That’s the biggest part of the whole thing, I had my wife with me in spring training, she’s pregnant, so that made it even worse otherwise she’d be with me right now,” said Burnett. “We had to go to Dunedin and I said, ‘You know what, honey? Everything is crazy right now, go home.’ I didn’t want her flying all over the place with me and moving.

“I had to break a lease in Minnesota because I figured I was going to be there, I had to get out of a lease in Buffalo, I had to get my car shipped from Minnesota to Buffalo, now I have to get it from Buffalo to God knows where right now. Yeah, it’s been a very crazy few weeks.”....

“I think it’s something that should maybe be brought up in the next players’ association meeting. It is a bad situation when it carries on as long as it has for some people.”

Henneman: Orioles Partly To Blame For Jake Arrieta’s Struggles

Plus…Boof Bonser is third on his Similarity Score. (Posting Rule #1: Never pass on a Boof Bonser mention)

Some people may have forgotten, but Arrieta’s baptism in baseball was one by fire. He has pitched the O’s home opener three years in a row—not so much because he deserved it, but because he was the best option. Before making his big league debut in 2010, he pitched 336.2 innings in the minor leagues, which was enough to get his feet wet, but hardly enough to master his craft.

...But here’s the real problem, one that even those who should know better tend to overlook: Arrieta never spent a full season at either of the top rungs on the minor league ladder. He had one full year at Single-A Frederick (2008), split the 2009 season between Double-A Bowie and Norfolk, then got the call to the big leagues the following year after 11 starts at Triple-A.

In case you didn’t notice, or might have forgotten, the Orioles have forced a similar path on some of the club’s other pitchers, such as Brian Matusz, Zach Britton and—to a lesser degree—Chris Tillman. Tillman at least used up all three of his options, as opposed to Arrieta, whose promotion came before he’d ever even been on the 40-man roster.

...Arrieta is at a point when his career should be on the upswing, but the brutal truth is that, at the age of 27, he still has another minor league option left—an option that could have been put to better use three years ago.

His situation is as much or more of an indictment of how the organization monitored his progress as it is of his inability to live up to the lofty expectations he and the Orioles still have.

Walder: Rex Ryan rants against Baltimore Orioles over season opener

Rex, brothers!

The Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens can’t open the season at home because the Orioles play a game on September 5, when the season opener is scheduled to be played, and the two teams share a parking lot. While there was talk of the Orioles potentially moving their game to another time, Ryan proposed something more ridiculous—moving its location—during a rant against the Baltimore baseball team.

“Well who really cares, you’ve got 81 at home, maybe you could have done the right thing and given one up and then played 82 on the road and then 80 at home,” he said. “I really don’t think people are going to care about that game.”

Perhaps Ryan didn’t quite consider how substantial the loss in gate revenue, not to mention the lack of home-field advantage the Orioles would give up, in such a bizarre scenario.

MASN: Showalter on Conor Jackson’s retirement

Rear Admiral Upper Half ‘A.J.’ Showalter on Conor Jackson’s retirement.

Orioles manager Buck Showalter found out about first baseman/outfielder Conor Jackson’s retirement today during a text exchange with Triple-A Norfolk manager Ron Johnson.

“He loved being with the organization and all that, but he’s at the stage of his life where it wasn’t something he wanted to continue to do,” Showalter said. “I know a little bit more than that, but that’s something that should come from Conor. He’s just at the stage of his life where he wanted to move on and I respect him for it. It’s tough.

“I just wanted to know whether there was something he was unhappy about. It wasn’t at all. He had been thinking about it for a little while and just didn’t enjoy going to the park like he used to. I don’t think it had anything to do with Norfolk.”

Jackson, 30, nearly made the club out of spring training, which added another element of surprise to his retirement.

“He gave a great effort and really competed this spring,” Showalter said. “He made it down to the last cut. He should be very proud of that. Part of me hates to see him go, but I want him to be happy, too.

“He’s got a lot of things going for him. He’s a smart, well-educated guy who can do other things in his life than play in Norfolk, and I respect that.”

MLB.com: Yanks turn one of rarest triple plays in history; Bombers first to record 4-6-5-6-5-3-4 putout; club’s second since 1968

It all started with Alexi Casilla on second, Nick Markakis on first and Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado at the plate. Machado roped a line drive toward Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano, who fielded the ball on a short hop.

Cano quickly flipped to shortstop Jayson Nix for the first out and—with Casilla initially freezing on the line drive—Nix had time to pivot and fire to third baseman Kevin Youkilis, catching Casilla in a rundown.

After exchanging throws with Nix, Youkilis chased down and tagged out Casilla for the second out. In the midst of that rundown, Machado had rounded first and thought about taking off for second, allowing Youkilis to rifle to first baseman Lyle Overbay, setting off another rundown. [...]

And that’s exactly what happened, as Overbay quickly relayed the ball to Cano, who tagged out Machado sliding into second base. Overbay admitted afterward he was worried his throw was going to miss its target because Machado’s path to second impeded on Overbay’s ideal throwing lane.

Fangraphs - The Orioles and Holding Runners On: Showalter’s Gambit

More daring than the Ruy Lopez or the Caro-Kann Defense!

The Baltimore manager has his first baseman, Chris Davis, playing a few steps off the bag when holding runners. Not just the slow-of-foot — all runners, all the time. The situation doesn’t matter. According to Orioles broadcaster Gary Thorne, the practice began in spring training and has been in place for every game since the start of the season. [...]

Something else Showalter said — and what he wouldn’t say — is where the gamesmanship comes into play. “You create some unknown in the runners mind,” he admitted cagily.

Showalter took pains not to elaborate, but the psychology behind the strategy seems apparent. Much like Joe Maddon’s shifts can create questions in a hitter’s mind, not being held on in a standard fashion puts runners in unfamiliar territory. Can they afford to take a bigger lead? Pitchers can still throw over, which they’ve done this year without incident. If runners can get a jump, are they willing to challenge Matt Wieters‘ arm? The Gold Glove catcher has nabbed four out of five runners attempting to steal so far this season. Asked if Wieters’ defensive ability plays a big role in his strategy, Showalter withheld comment.

The Orioles and Holding Runners: Showalter’s Gambit

The party line is defensive coverage in the three-four hole, but it probably isn’t that simple. Knowing Buck Showalter, some gamesmanship is at play as well.

The Baltimore manager has his first baseman, Chris Davis, playing a few steps off the bag when holding runners. Not just the slow-of-foot — all runners, all the time. The situation doesn’t matter. According to Orioles broadcaster Gary Thorne, the practice began in spring training and has been in place for every game since the start of the season.

Here, see for yourself, as Davis shuffles back to the bag on a pick-off attempt.

Everybody do the Chris Davis Shuffle!

Citing schedule conflicts, Ravens decline invitation to take part in O’s Opening Day

“Orioles fans stood and applauded Friday as an image of Joe Flacco hoisting the Lombardi Trophy flashed on the video board at Camden Yards, part of an Opening Day tribute to the Super Bowl champion Ravens.

But the friendly public moment belied a bit of unseen intrigue as several members of the Ravens organization, citing scheduling conflicts, declined to be on hand for the pregame ceremonies.”

Dylan Bundy shut down with elbow stiffness

Well…so much for Bundy having to wear a phony sling now.

Orioles top prospect Dylan Bundy has been shut down after experiencing some mild elbow tightness in his throwing arm.

“He’s going to rest it for a few more days until it goes away, and we expect that to be in a couple of days and then at that point he would resume his throwing,” Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette said. “He’s had some tightness for a couple of days. I think it came to light last week.”

Duquette said Bundy complained of the tightness a few days after his final minor league spring start. Bundy had an MRI taken on the elbow and the results were negative, showing mild tightness in a muscle in the area of his elbow.

Bundy will have to begin a throwing progression once he returns, which places his availability for the beginning of the minor league season at Double-A Bowie in question. His first start of the season for the Baysox has not yet been scheduled.

“We’re just being cautious to shut him down until the muscle tightness goes away,” said Brian Graham, the Orioles’ director of player development. “He’ll start back with a throwing program and evaluate it from there. We really don’t know what day he’s going to pitch. It’s all based on how he feels when he’s throwing again.”

Ravens want O’s to move game to accomidate Home opener.

Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Biscotti said his team and the NFL are willing to do whatever it takes to ensure the season opens at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday, Sept. 5, so it’s up to the Baltimore Orioles to give a little themselves.

“In fairness to Major League Baseball and the Angeloses, we’re trying to dump a pretty big problem on them and we’re asking them to make a lot of concessions that will benefit us and potentially harm them though it doesn’t necessarily harm them,” Bisciotti said, according to the newspaper. “The bottom line is if they wanted to do it, they would find a way to do it. From the Ravens and the NFL standpoint, we’ll do whatever we have to do in order to keep that tradition.”

NFL has all the power, but might be losing its Charm (City)

read it while you can… the Post’s going behind a paywall soon.

But while baseball is the older of the sports, and the more traditional, that doesn’t mean it has lost all its punch, as witnessed in NFL v. MLB, otherwise known as the Battle for Baltimore. Roger Goodell has asked Bud Selig to move a night game at Camden Yards on Sept. 5 between the Orioles and White Sox to the afternoon to accommodate the Super Bowl champion Ravens playing in the NFL’s Thursday night season opener, a tradition that dates from. . . 2004.

Baseball Prospectus editor explains why the Orioles are picked to finish last

Lindbergh: The Lone Oriole…explainer.

There’s been a lot of numerical negativity surrounding the Orioles this spring, what’s the main takeaway that you see when you look at them?

I was as guilty as anyone else [last year saying that] the Orioles weren’t going to last, and that they didn’t have the run differential that would go with their record, that their record in one-run games would regress. And they managed to sustain that the entire season and made a lot of us look wrong.

A lot of people say this about the sabermetric sort of people, that we’re a little too negative about the Orioles. And I think maybe there’s something to that. … Clearly [the Orioles] made some big strides, but I guess the numerical negativity this winter is just that they had that best record ever in one-run games, which is not something that teams have shown any ability to sustain from season to season. Even if it is partially a result of a good bullpen and not just good luck, it seems that bullpen performance is one of the least stable aspects of a team from season to season.

A good hitting team can often be a good hitting team the next season, and a team with good starting pitching often can be able to sustain that. But bullpen performance fluctuates a lot from year to year, so there’s just some concern that they were fortunate in their one-run record last year and that they won’t be as much this year. And they had a quiet offseason while a lot of their division rivals were busy, so there’s not a lot of improvement, at least on paper, to overcome that regression that would be expected.

As a club it seems like the Orioles are embracing sabermetrics more and more now under [executive vice president Dan] Duquette. How do they rank, looking it them against the other teams, in terms of how well they use the advanced numbers.

It’s hard to say, because we don’t really know what goes on in front offices. They’re not one of the more vocal teams when it comes to embracing stats. They don’t have people in their front office who used to be [Baseball Prospectus] writers or guys who were writing about sabermetrics on the internet, like a lot of teams do.

They don’t have a very vocal, public stats presense, so I don’t know. But there really isn’t a team in baseball without someone working on stats all the time. I know there was someone from the Orioles down at the [SABR Analytics Conference earlier this month in Phoenix], so certainly they have people doing that and looking at that. I would think that just based on the fact that historically they haven’t been a huge proponent of sabermetrics leads me to think that maybe they’re still playing catch-up in that area and maybe aren’t ahead of the pack. But it’s hard to say from outside. It’s possible that they’re really advanced about those things and just like to keep quiet about it, which certainly makes sense.

PressBox: Dan Duquette is rebuilding his reputation, and his new team, with a vengeance

With Mike Barnicle, Mike Shalin and Jonah Keri checking in.

But as the days lengthen and the regular season beckons, members of the national media wonder whether the bear-like Duquette hasn’t spent the winter hibernating, at least when it comes to acquiring major league-ready talent.

“If I was a fan, I’d be very upset,” Keri said. “The Orioles should have a $200 million payroll. They might be making $100 million off of MASN alone. It’s ridiculous and an outrage that [owner] Peter Angelos lines his pockets instead of putting the money back into the team. But just look at the Rays. They’re as handcuffed by money as the Orioles, and they went out and made the Wil Myers deal.”

Remind Duquette of this and his reputation begins to leak out. When told that oddsmakers and pundits were saying the largely unimproved team was unlikely to break the .500 mark, he let out a slow, intimidating bellow of a laugh.

“Are they the same people who said we’d finish in fifth place last year?” Duquette said. “Or that we only had a 5 percent chance in August of making the playoffs?”

He went on to tout the defensive prowess of light-hitting first baseman Travis Ishikawa, claimed off waivers, and the versatility of backup outfielder Trayvon Robinson. Duquette’s approach, here in Baltimore, the bargain basement of major league baseball, is to favor quantity instead of proven quality. If Russ Canzler, Lew Ford, Steve Pearce or Danny Valencia can hang with the big club, why spend more money?

Murphy: One-Run Game Performance is Unsustainable

I mean, 29-9 in one-run games? C’mon son. You can’t expect us to believe that happened any way other than dumb luck, right? There’s absolutely no chance that skill is repeatable, at least to that degree. This is common knowledge, and there’s no point trying to argue against it. But I will argue for it, anyway, because it’s fun to quantify things.

How unsustainable is that 29-9 record in one-run games? Well, for starters, it’s the highest winning percentage in one-run games in MLB history (dating back to 1901, which is 2332 individual team seasons). Anything that extreme is due for some serious regression to the mean. But do records in one-run games regress to .500, or to some other team-specific level, similar to how we now know that hitter BABIP regresses to an established hitter mean? ...

Do Elite Teams Still Regress?

The logic behind this question is that teams who do other-worldly in one-run games may have some underlying skill or profile that allows them to do so, so they may not regress quite as far. The opposite logic might be that they have much further to fall in regression.

This graph just took teams who won better than 60% of their one-run games in one year, which is a sample of 267 teams, or roughly teams in the 89th percentile for one-run game performance. Please note the change in scale on the x-axis, as we’re only looking at elite teams. ...

We see basically the same thing as before – almost no relationship, with an R2 of just 1.2% and just as weak a trendline. It does not appear that even elite teams in one-run games show a particular skill that repeats year over year. To examine further, though, I looked at the average one-run game winning percentage for several buckets of performance levels.

The only things I could think of that may predict one-run game success is a very strong bullpen or an excellent tactician on the bench. The latter is impossible to measure, though I’d guess Buck Showalter falls somewhere short of “master strategist.” As for the bullpen, well, I wasn’t going to pull reliever data for 2332 team seasons, but I DID pull it for the last three years (90 team seasons). Bullpen FIP had an 11.5% R2 with one-run game winning percentage, even stronger than the previous year’s Pythagorean winning percentage. It appears bullpen FIP, though not terribly predictive, is at least somewhat of a signal of one-run game capability. Unfortunately for the Orioles, their bullpen was merely average with a 3.68 FIP, so it doesn’t appear they have an edge there, either.