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Pecota Newsbeat

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Each year, projections are down on Buck Showalter’s Orioles. Each year, they outperform

The first week of February is one of Buck Showalter’s favorite times of the year, and not only because sprig training is right around the corner. It’s usually around then that the top sabermetric websites release their win projections for the upcoming season, and Showalter, the manager of the Baltimore Orioles, takes perverse pleasure in finding out how awful his team is going to be. The projections rarely disappoint.

His favorite is PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’s projection model….

By now, a pattern has been established: In 2012, Showalter’s second season in Baltimore, PECOTA had the Orioles winning 71 games; they won 93. In 2013, PECOTA projected 75 wins; the Orioles won 85. In 2014, it was 75 and 96. In 2015, 78 and 81. And in 2016, 72 and 89.

ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 15, 2017 at 11:41 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: orioles, pecota

Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Royals forecast to finish last in AL Central in 2017 by PECOTA projections

Baseball Prospectus forecasts a 69-win season for the Royals in 2017 and a last-place finish in the American League Central. And it’s a distant fifth-place finish, six games behind the rebuilding Chicago White Sox.

A year ago, the PECOTA projection was right about one thing in the American League Central: The Indians were picked to win the division and that they did. However, the Royals exceeded their projection of a 76-86 record and a last-place finish in the Central.

Instead, the Royals were 81-81 and third in the division. That continued a trend of (depending on your view) overachieving Royals seasons or wrong predictions.

Complete PECOTA standings.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 07, 2017 at 11:20 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Beats: pecota, royals

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Grading the projections: 2016

ZiPS didn’t have a good year. ZiPS was the least accurate of the three systems in each of the five categories, and never by a particularly small margin. You don’t want to conclude too much based on a single season of results, but ZiPS didn’t perform very well in last year’s review, either. (I should also note that this is Steamer’s second straight year of leading the pack in convincing fashion.)

Marcel does its job. Marcel wasn’t great, but it was almost always in the neighborhood of accurate. It beat ZiPS in four of the five categories, and even led OBP. Marcel remains very hard to convincingly beat (or even beat at all), despite its simplicity.

Averaging the projections might be a great idea. The “Average” row in the above table is exactly what you would expect: the accuracy of the average of all four systems. It beats all four systems in four of the five categories, and fell short of only Steamer in the fifth. One would expect that an average would rarely be egregiously wrong; it’s surprising to see that the average also tended to be closer to right than each individual projection. This could be a quirk of a single season of projections, but at the very least, it seems to say that the brute-force method of resolving differences between the projection systems is credible.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2017 at 11:34 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: marcel, pecota, steamer, zips

 

 

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