Thursday, February 04, 2016
Great stuff from Jeff Sullivan.
Granted, there are similarities between lots of great players and lots of inferior players. The limitation of the pitch-comp system is it says nothing about consistency, and I can’t imagine Porcello yet trusts his curve the way that Wainwright has trusted his. One still has to assume Wainwright commands the pitch better, and then there’s also the matter of Wainwright having the cutter, which is better than Porcello’s. The effectiveness of a pitch is in part about the effectiveness of the other pitches, so Porcello still has a lot of proving to do. The point isn’t that Rick Porcello turned into Adam Wainwright when nobody noticed.
The point is simply that Rick Porcello’s curveball has evolved into something extremely similar to Adam Wainwright’s curveball. You can choose how much to make of that. If nothing else, it’s something to watch for.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Here comes the Paine…
During the regular season, the group of pitchers that the Mets have thus far used in the World Series struck out 23 percent of opposing batters,1 while the particular group of hitters the Royals have used struck out in 15.2 percent of their plate appearances. Doing a little cross-multiplication using the 2015 MLB-wide average strikeout rate of 20.4 percent, we would have expected New York’s pitchers to set down 17.2 percent of Kansas City batters on strikes in the World Series.
But instead of striking out 17.2 percent of the time, Kansas City hitters have whiffed in only 10.3 percent of their plate appearances through two games, a pretty sizable departure from expectations. There was only an 11.8 percent probability that Kansas City’s strikeout rate against these Mets pitchers would be as low as it has been through two games.2
Why? In Game 1, Matt Harvey had arguably the worst stuff of his career; Jeurys Familia’s sinker caught too much of the strike zone. In Game 2, Jacob deGrom threw as hard as ever but couldn’t get the Royals to swing through much of anything. But mainly, Kansas City is just good at this — the Royals are possibly the best contact-hitting team ever. (“Singled to death,” lamented one anguished Mets fan in FanGraphs’ live blog.)
Posted: October 29, 2015 at 07:59 AM | 16 comment(s)
Friday, October 23, 2015
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
There is a long way to go in all this. Dombrowski may try to move some of the money owed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, which may not be simple propositions. Ownership may want to restrict pitching contracts. They may look at the fact that four of the top pitchers in WAR are Jake Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel, John Lackey (the ask-out fallout from the Lester offer) and Chris Archer; the work put in the last two months in developing and finding pitchers has been tireless and creative.
Alpha dogs cannot be found at a breeder. Not that easy.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
I’ve been looking over the DRA figures at Baseball since they announced the stat. I like it but, from what I have learned in old research, there should be a factor differentiating between pitcher performance with nobody on and with runners on. Although the difference isn’t much from most pitchers, there are some who have a different profile. Of course, I may have missed the adjustment in their explanations.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Good stuff from Eno Harris.
So when Trevor Bauer dismisses the fact his curveball has the highest whiff rate among starters, saying, “That’s just because of how I use it, not because of the movement of the pitch,” then you can understand better how complicated pitching is — and how one good pitch thrown infrequently does not automatically beget one great pitch thrown more often.
Monday, August 24, 2015
Did you ever pitch high on cannabis? And if so, do you think it made you performance better or worse?
You won’t believe his answer to this question!
Friday, August 14, 2015
Not any shocking findings but interesting nonetheless.
Managers, it appears, stack their lineups with more lefties when facing right-handed pitching but pay little attention to the projected platoon split of the pitcher. The right-handed pitchers projected to have reverse splits faced roughly as many left-handed batters as the right-handed pitchers with the most extreme projected splits and dramatically more left-handed batters than the left-handed pitchers with the weakest projected splits. Daily fantasy managers may well act similarly and, in either world, some advantage could be accrued by looking at more than just a pitcher’s throwing hand.
Posted: August 14, 2015 at 07:57 AM | 0 comment(s)
for his generous support.
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