Thursday, October 29, 2015
Here comes the Paine…
During the regular season, the group of pitchers that the Mets have thus far used in the World Series struck out 23 percent of opposing batters,1 while the particular group of hitters the Royals have used struck out in 15.2 percent of their plate appearances. Doing a little cross-multiplication using the 2015 MLB-wide average strikeout rate of 20.4 percent, we would have expected New York’s pitchers to set down 17.2 percent of Kansas City batters on strikes in the World Series.
But instead of striking out 17.2 percent of the time, Kansas City hitters have whiffed in only 10.3 percent of their plate appearances through two games, a pretty sizable departure from expectations. There was only an 11.8 percent probability that Kansas City’s strikeout rate against these Mets pitchers would be as low as it has been through two games.2
Why? In Game 1, Matt Harvey had arguably the worst stuff of his career; Jeurys Familia’s sinker caught too much of the strike zone. In Game 2, Jacob deGrom threw as hard as ever but couldn’t get the Royals to swing through much of anything. But mainly, Kansas City is just good at this — the Royals are possibly the best contact-hitting team ever. (“Singled to death,” lamented one anguished Mets fan in FanGraphs’ live blog.)
Posted: October 29, 2015 at 07:59 AM | 16 comment(s)
Friday, October 23, 2015
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
There is a long way to go in all this. Dombrowski may try to move some of the money owed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, which may not be simple propositions. Ownership may want to restrict pitching contracts. They may look at the fact that four of the top pitchers in WAR are Jake Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel, John Lackey (the ask-out fallout from the Lester offer) and Chris Archer; the work put in the last two months in developing and finding pitchers has been tireless and creative.
Alpha dogs cannot be found at a breeder. Not that easy.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
I’ve been looking over the DRA figures at Baseball since they announced the stat. I like it but, from what I have learned in old research, there should be a factor differentiating between pitcher performance with nobody on and with runners on. Although the difference isn’t much from most pitchers, there are some who have a different profile. Of course, I may have missed the adjustment in their explanations.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Good stuff from Eno Harris.
So when Trevor Bauer dismisses the fact his curveball has the highest whiff rate among starters, saying, “That’s just because of how I use it, not because of the movement of the pitch,” then you can understand better how complicated pitching is — and how one good pitch thrown infrequently does not automatically beget one great pitch thrown more often.
Monday, August 24, 2015
Did you ever pitch high on cannabis? And if so, do you think it made you performance better or worse?
You won’t believe his answer to this question!
Friday, August 14, 2015
Not any shocking findings but interesting nonetheless.
Managers, it appears, stack their lineups with more lefties when facing right-handed pitching but pay little attention to the projected platoon split of the pitcher. The right-handed pitchers projected to have reverse splits faced roughly as many left-handed batters as the right-handed pitchers with the most extreme projected splits and dramatically more left-handed batters than the left-handed pitchers with the weakest projected splits. Daily fantasy managers may well act similarly and, in either world, some advantage could be accrued by looking at more than just a pitcher’s throwing hand.
Posted: August 14, 2015 at 07:57 AM | 0 comment(s)
Sunday, August 09, 2015
Much has been made lately about the Mets “Matrix’’ system.
The Matrix is a computer program coupled with scouting, Collins said Saturday they use the info to help figure out what pitchers the Mets’ young hitters, especially, might have the most success against.
“What we’ve tried to do is get our scouts together and take [Rays starter] Nathan Karns for example, how many guys have that kind of stuff, similar stuff, go through the computer system and say, ‘OK, here is a guy who pitches at 92-93, a good curve ball, who are these guys?’ ” Collins explained. “You take that list, and some of our hitters have faced them in the past. You put it together and you have a better idea that this guy should hit this guy, so it helps us a little bit more.’’
With more options, Collins can make a more informed decision, the Matrix on Saturday said Wilmer Flores, Tejada and Kelly Johnson, should all be able to hit Karns. Collins opted for Tejada and Johnson to be in the lineup.
Posted: August 09, 2015 at 10:45 AM | 1 comment(s)
Thursday, July 16, 2015
“Velocity is a big part of this game,” said Troy Tulowitzki, the Colorado shortstop. “Hopefully, it doesn’t go any higher.”
Posted: July 16, 2015 at 11:18 AM | 0 comment(s)
Monday, June 15, 2015
But does it measure The Will to Win?
So, it comes with little surprise that the Rays and markerless bio-mechanics company KinaTrax have announced a deal that will allow the Rays to keep track of their pitchers’ form. The two organizations released a statement today, saying that KinaTrax will install a software-hardware product suite in Tropicana Field for use in the 2015 MLB season.
The system will be able to track a pitcher’s mechanics in real-time during a game. It does not use any sort of device that a pitcher must wear, but will be able to capture a pitcher’s “joint angles, bone displacements and velocity metrics” from afar.
Then, the system will use motion capture analytics to ascertain whether or not a pitcher’s form will make him prone to injury. The suite in Tropicana field will also be able to tell whether a pitcher’s form is hurting his performance.
Tuesday, June 02, 2015
If relievers are truly getting better, maybe a team won’t need so many of them. How about a couple less relievers and a few more quality pinch-hitting options?
Now that we know that teams have better bullpens at their disposal than they used to, what’s the counter-move? One that’s been suggested is that hitters should stop being so patient and just attack what the starter gives them. In fact, there’s evidence that one reason for the recent rise in strikeouts is that hitters are being too patient. If the batter comes up saying, “I won’t swing until you throw me a strike,” the pitcher is likely to say, “OK, here” and we end up in an 0-1 count. If bullpens really are getting better, maybe it’s worth it to go after the No. 4 starter and make sure that it’s already 7-2 by the fifth inning so that the All-Star bullpen doesn’t matter.
for his generous support.
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