Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Playoffs Newsbeat

Monday, August 18, 2014

Passan: Breaking down the schedules for all 19 MLB playoff contenders

What if they gave a postseason and no team was good?

Baseball’s two richest teams find themselves at the opposite end of the scheduling spectrum. Presenting, then, a complete breakdown of the stretch schedules for all 19 – 19! – playoff contenders, going from hardest to easiest, and starting with the ...

1. New York Yankees… 2. Tampa Bay Rays… 3. Cincinnati Reds… 4. Miami Marlins… 5. Los Angeles Angels… 6. Toronto Blue Jays… 7. Seattle Mariners… 8. Milwaukee Brewers… . Washington Nationals… 10. Pittsburgh Pirates… 11. Cleveland Indians… 12. Detroit Tigers…13. Atlanta Braves… 14. Oakland A’s… 15. San Francisco Giants… 16. St. Louis Cardinals… 17. Baltimore Orioles… 18. Kansas City Royals… 19. Los Angeles Dodgers

The District Attorney Posted: August 18, 2014 at 02:43 PM | 34 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff passan, playoffs, sabermetrics

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

The 1994 strike cost us a terrible playoff team

CONSPIRACY THEORY: Bud Selig cancelled the World Series to avoid this embarrassing failure!

When the strike hit on August 12, 1994, the AL West had four teams with a losing record out of four, with the first-place Rangers sitting at 52-62.

That alone is bad enough, but let’s slap some context on this to drive home how absurd it would have been for the 1994 Rangers or one of the teams trailing them—after all, the last-place Angels were just 5.5 back of Texas at the time of the strike—to make the playoffs. Were the Rangers playing in a division that had even one half-decent team in it, they would have been chasing the newly introduced wild card instead of the division. Except their .451 winning percentage would have put them behind eight other teams gunning for the wild card—another way to say that is the Rangers trailed every single team in the American League for a playoff spot, except for their three pals in the AL West who were somehow worse….

What’s especially odd is where all this poor production came to be a problem. The Rangers went 21-20 against the far superior AL East, and posted a 23-20 mark against the Central, but had all of eight wins in 30 tries against their AL West opponents. They were 20-19 against teams over .500 and 32-43 against teams under that threshold, and their complete inability to beat teams that they theoretically should have was their undoing.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 12, 2014 at 02:48 PM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: playoffs, rangers, strike, work stoppage

Thursday, May 01, 2014

BtBS: How much does a team’s early-season record inform their playoff odds?

This is the time of year when announcers, talk show hosts and web columnists start asking “How many games does a team need to play before we know what kind of team they really are?” So far this year, I’ve heard anything from 30 all the way to 60. I almost choked when I heard 60—at that point the season is almost 40% played, and absent drastic and unpredictable events (trades, injuries, phenoms like Yasiel Puig who totally outperform any reasonable expectation) the team has moved beyond the prediction phase to that of actual. [...]

Of the teams [since 1995, when the divisional playoff level was added] playing at less than .400 at the 60-game mark (a 23-37 record or worse), none made the playoffs. Conversely, almost 72 percent of teams with a record of 36-24 or better eventually made the playoffs. The demarcation point seems pretty clear—at the 60-game mark, teams need to be playing around .550 ball (33-27) in order to have reasonable chances of making the playoffs.

I don’t find these numbers surprising, but I’m more curious how many fewer games can be played before reasonable inferences can be made.

bobm Posted: May 01, 2014 at 12:35 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Beats: playoffs, sample size

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogC.J. Wilson on Spin Rate, Arm Angles and Exploiting Weaknesses
(11 - 1:13am, Aug 28)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-27-2014
(136 - 1:11am, Aug 28)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogJack White, Eddie Vedder, and Paul Simon take in a Seattle Mariners game
(23 - 1:07am, Aug 28)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogAJC: O’Brien: Expect B.J. Upton trade talks to be revisited
(32 - 12:54am, Aug 28)
Last: Der-K and the statistical werewolves.

NewsblogByron Buxton, Addison Russell, Mark Appel named to Arizona Fall League rosters | MiLB.com
(11 - 12:53am, Aug 28)
Last: Petunia inquires about ponies

NewsblogPassan: How macho baseball culture wants to ruin Yu Darvish's arm
(1 - 12:52am, Aug 28)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(5799 - 12:13am, Aug 28)
Last: Misirlou's been working for the drug squad

NewsblogCameron: Next year really might be THE year, Cubs fans
(43 - 10:47pm, Aug 27)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogReports: The Astros may still be able to sign top pick Brady Aiken
(27 - 10:46pm, Aug 27)
Last: Ziggy

NewsblogDavid Justice Says Put Barry Bonds in Baseball Hall of Fame Despite Steroid Use Late In Career
(125 - 10:18pm, Aug 27)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogFangraphs: Cameron | Tim Lincecum: Now a Reliever, Maybe Needs to Close
(32 - 10:16pm, Aug 27)
Last: Jose Canusee

NewsblogKapler: Pinstriped Yarmulkes
(5 - 10:06pm, Aug 27)
Last: 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people

NewsblogJury awards Jose Offerman’s bat attack victim $940,000
(3 - 9:43pm, Aug 27)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogMariners Extend GM Jack Zduriencik
(50 - 9:24pm, Aug 27)
Last: toratoratora

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(716 - 8:48pm, Aug 27)
Last: Richard

Page rendered in 0.6935 seconds
55 querie(s) executed