Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Postseason Newsbeat

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Cameron: Let’s Talk About the Phillies’ Playoff Odds (!)

According to Dave, Martin O’Malley might have a better chance of being the Democrat nominee.

See that flat line across the bottom? That’s the Phillies. Their 24-17 start hasn’t moved the needle, at all, on our forecasts expectations for their chances of reaching the postseason. Okay, that’s not exactly true; they’ve gone from a 0.1% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots in our preseason forecast all the way up to a 0.3% chance of getting to the play-in game now. But their odds of hanging on to the NL East? Still close enough zero to round down when displaying one decimal point.

This is, to some, puzzling. A question in my chat yesterday brought up the point that our system is far more bearish on the Phillies hot start leading to postseason success than others; Baseball Prospectus gives them a 2.3% chance of winning the division and a 7.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, for 10% overall odds of reaching the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish than that, putting them at 4% to win the NL East and 13% to reach the postseason. So why is our system so stubborn relative to others attempting to look into the same crystal ball in order to see what the final standings will look like in October?

Well, it’s worth noting that there are dramatic methodological differences between the way that we (and BP) do our forecasts and the way FiveThirtyEight is doing theirs. Our forecasts are essentially an amalgamation of individual player projections, summed up at the team level; BP does this same thing too, using their PECOTA projections where we use a mix of ZIPS of Steamer. FiveThirtyEight, on the other hand, is using Elo Ratings, which adjust up or down based on whether you win or lose a game, and how much of an upset that win (or loss) was relative to their pre-game expectations. While they used individual player projections to come up with their preseason Elo ratings, their in-season adjustments are based on responding to a team’s win-loss record.

Our system doesn’t care at all about a team’s actual record at any point in the season; it only looks at the individual player performances to try and ascertain whether there have been significant changes in expected playing time or production level to adjust the team’s expected record up or down. So far, ZIPS and Steamer look at what the Phillies players are doing and think “yeah, that’s basically what we expected.” Our preseason expected win% for the Phillies was .395; 41 games into the season, our rest-of-season expected win% for the Phillies is .396. And because they were starting from such a low baseline of expected wins, even their extra banked wins through the first six weeks don’t really change how often they make the postseason in our simulations; the strong start has taken them from 64 to 72 projected wins, but nobody’s making the playoffs at 72 wins, or anything close to it.


Thursday, December 31, 2015

Proposing a Third Option for MLB’s Schedule - THT

Ultimately, though, no adjustment is going to handle the central conflict baseball faces in this regard: Short postseason series don’t necessarily reward the best teams, and so any system that relies on short series is going to lead to unsatisfying outcomes (from a competitive fairness perspective). The fairest way of resolving this would be to have a perfectly balanced schedule and a single regular season champion (as is done in European soccer). The team that plays the best over the course of the season gets the trophy.

TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 31, 2015 at 10:08 AM | 71 comment(s)
  Beats: postseason

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Adam S
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSan Diego Gay Men’s Chorus Humiliated in Homophobic ‘Nightmare’ at Padres Game
(205 - 1:36pm, May 24)
Last: A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-23-2016
(26 - 1:36pm, May 24)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogMarlins Sue Season Ticketholders, Vendors Bankrupted by Small Crowds
(13 - 1:36pm, May 24)
Last: AROM

NewsblogNYP: Bartolo Colon told Nationals: ‘Throw it down the middle, [I’m] not swinging’
(4 - 1:32pm, May 24)
Last: Batman

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 5-24-16
(22 - 1:32pm, May 24)
Last: dr. scott

NewsblogFull Count » Red Sox reliever Carson Smith will have Tommy John surgery Tuesday
(8 - 1:31pm, May 24)
Last: Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein

NewsblogOTP 2016 May 23: Baseball owners hear from Democratic, Republican strategists
(284 - 1:30pm, May 24)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogWhat's behind Jeff Samardzija's turnaround in 2016? | FOX Sports
(5 - 1:23pm, May 24)
Last: dr. scott

Sox TherapyHow Fun Is That?
(58 - 1:08pm, May 24)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogBraves trade minor leaguers for draft pick (and Matusz)
(8 - 12:56pm, May 24)
Last: Charles S. storms out of Wrigley before walk-off

NewsblogAtlanta Braves prospect Dansby Swanson stays focused in Double-A debut with Mississippi | MiLB.com
(2 - 12:27pm, May 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogPlease don't take away our glorious intentional walks
(47 - 12:24pm, May 24)
Last: Betts, Bogaerts, and D Price(GGC)

NewsblogRed Sox must turn to Christian Vazquez to help struggling pitchers - Boston Red Sox Blog- ESPN
(105 - 12:11pm, May 24)
Last: Joe Bivens, Minor Genius

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(448 - 12:07pm, May 24)
Last: Fancy Pants with a clinging marmoset on his Handle

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-24-2016
(15 - 12:02pm, May 24)
Last: BDC

Page rendered in 0.8606 seconds
50 querie(s) executed