Thursday, May 19, 2016
According to Dave, Martin O’Malley might have a better chance of being the Democrat nominee.
See that flat line across the bottom? That’s the Phillies. Their 24-17 start hasn’t moved the needle, at all, on our forecasts expectations for their chances of reaching the postseason. Okay, that’s not exactly true; they’ve gone from a 0.1% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots in our preseason forecast all the way up to a 0.3% chance of getting to the play-in game now. But their odds of hanging on to the NL East? Still close enough zero to round down when displaying one decimal point.
This is, to some, puzzling. A question in my chat yesterday brought up the point that our system is far more bearish on the Phillies hot start leading to postseason success than others; Baseball Prospectus gives them a 2.3% chance of winning the division and a 7.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, for 10% overall odds of reaching the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish than that, putting them at 4% to win the NL East and 13% to reach the postseason. So why is our system so stubborn relative to others attempting to look into the same crystal ball in order to see what the final standings will look like in October?
Well, it’s worth noting that there are dramatic methodological differences between the way that we (and BP) do our forecasts and the way FiveThirtyEight is doing theirs. Our forecasts are essentially an amalgamation of individual player projections, summed up at the team level; BP does this same thing too, using their PECOTA projections where we use a mix of ZIPS of Steamer. FiveThirtyEight, on the other hand, is using Elo Ratings, which adjust up or down based on whether you win or lose a game, and how much of an upset that win (or loss) was relative to their pre-game expectations. While they used individual player projections to come up with their preseason Elo ratings, their in-season adjustments are based on responding to a team’s win-loss record.
Our system doesn’t care at all about a team’s actual record at any point in the season; it only looks at the individual player performances to try and ascertain whether there have been significant changes in expected playing time or production level to adjust the team’s expected record up or down. So far, ZIPS and Steamer look at what the Phillies players are doing and think “yeah, that’s basically what we expected.” Our preseason expected win% for the Phillies was .395; 41 games into the season, our rest-of-season expected win% for the Phillies is .396. And because they were starting from such a low baseline of expected wins, even their extra banked wins through the first six weeks don’t really change how often they make the postseason in our simulations; the strong start has taken them from 64 to 72 projected wins, but nobody’s making the playoffs at 72 wins, or anything close to it.
for his generous support.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
: Omnichatter 8-27-16
(60 - 10:24pm, Aug 27)
: OT: August 2016 Soccer Thread
(385 - 10:17pm, Aug 27)Last:
He who brought the butter dish to Balshazar (CoB)Newsblog
: Dodgers land Ruiz from Phillies | dodgers.com
(52 - 10:16pm, Aug 27)
Last: Dock Ellis on AcidNewsblog
: 2016 NFL thread
(4 - 9:35pm, Aug 27)
: Sanchez-Fueled Yanks Penning Thrilling Script
(35 - 9:05pm, Aug 27)
Last: Asian Sorority Sleepover Party TVerikNewsblog
: Mariners option outfielder Norichika Aoki | MLB.com
(5 - 8:54pm, Aug 27)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)Newsblog
: OTP 2016 August 22: Baseball has much to teach us about politics
(967 - 8:52pm, Aug 27)Last:
David Nieporent (now, with children)Newsblog
: OMNICHATTER 8-25-16
(210 - 8:32pm, Aug 27)Last:
What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?Newsblog
: The Diamondbacks’ flexible philosophies
(2 - 8:00pm, Aug 27)
: Baseball’s minor leaguers pursue their dreams below the poverty line - The Washington Post
(24 - 8:00pm, Aug 27)
: The San Diego Chicken Heads Into a Sunset
(11 - 7:34pm, Aug 27)
Last: Walt DavisNewsblog
: White Sox GM Rick Hahn says talk of trade-deadline discord 'simply untrue'
(35 - 5:25pm, Aug 27)
Last: McCoy Hall of Merit
: Most Meritorious Player: 1996 Discussion
(15 - 3:59pm, Aug 27)
: Hardly a Hard Day's Night for the Cubs on Beatles Night at Dodger Stadium - Chicago Tribune
(6 - 2:48pm, Aug 27)
Last: McCoy Newsblog
: 2016 New York City Softball Game
(446 - 2:24pm, Aug 27)Last:
Hysterical & Useless