Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Postseason Newsbeat

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Neyer: Does anybody really need to do…anything?

Neyer declares war on “need.”

So you’ve got all those contending teams and all those late-July trades, and I can’t find a single compelling instance of a player who really made a difference.

Is this normal? No, and yes. Last season was atypical, just in terms of how few division races wound up being even remotely close. But let’s just think about the math for a moment. Leaving aside Mike Trout, your typical great player is worth about six wins above replacement over a whole season … which means he’s worth only two wins after the trade deadline. How many races come down to two wins or fewer? Not many. How many of the teams in those races ultimately win the World Series? Even fewer?

Here’s the problem with using the word “need” ... According to Baseball Prospectus’s latest Playoff Odds Report, the Blue Jays have a 4.7-percent chance of winning the World Series. That is, a title. Let’s say they add a starter and a reliever. Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman. Which would really be something, wouldn’t it? That’s about as well as they could possibly do!

If they added both those guys, made a true blockbuster deal, their chances of winning the World Series might jump all the way to eight or nine percent. But probably more like six or seven.

Which is why I don’t buy into need, but rather want or good to have. Because I’m pretty sure the Angels aren’t listening on Trout.

Addendum: Everything above refers to contenders. As we’ve seen, it’s difficult to make a trade that actually makes a real difference in the standings, let alone in October. But if you’re the Phillies or the Reds or one of another dozen or so teams that’s got very little chance of playing big games in September, let alone October? Then, yeah: I’ll go ahead and say you need to get something done. If you ask me, late July is a great time to be out of contention. Because all those teams with prospects think they need your veterans.

JE (Jason) Posted: July 25, 2015 at 05:41 PM | 23 comment(s)
  Beats: postseason, trade deadline

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Rough Carrigan
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThis Is The Refusal Roberto Clemente Got When He Asked For A Raise
(20 - 1:42am, Aug 01)
Last: AROM

NewsblogLast minute deals
(28 - 1:33am, Aug 01)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(6206 - 1:30am, Aug 01)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogFormer Tigers pitcher Billy Pierce dies at 88
(7 - 1:05am, Aug 01)
Last: OCF

Newsblog7-31-2015 OMNICHATTER/TRADE DEADLINE OMNICHATTER
(166 - 12:44am, Aug 01)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1436 - 11:21pm, Jul 31)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogLookout Landing: Ackley Traded to Yankees for Flores and Ramirez
(24 - 11:21pm, Jul 31)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogWith money and cutting-edge brilliance, Dodgers playing a game others can’t - Yahoo Sports
(12 - 10:53pm, Jul 31)
Last: Bourbon Samurai in America

NewsblogYankees remain in Kimbrel market; could active Astros join them? - CBSSports.com
(5 - 10:46pm, Jul 31)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

NewsblogThe Official Mets Fan Self-Immolation Thread
(402 - 10:45pm, Jul 31)
Last: Banta

NewsblogKeith Law - ESPN (Insider) - Phillies effectively reload their farm system with Cole Hamels deal
(36 - 9:49pm, Jul 31)
Last: greenback, tyrant of bakers

NewsblogTrade Chatter - 2015 Deadline
(604 - 9:44pm, Jul 31)
Last: Squash

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - July 2015
(1712 - 7:46pm, Jul 31)
Last: Rickey! is all out of bubblegum

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1043 - 7:31pm, Jul 31)
Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

NewsblogClassic Movie Line
(2 - 7:08pm, Jul 31)
Last: Rickey! is all out of bubblegum

Page rendered in 0.4046 seconds
47 querie(s) executed