Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Postseason Newsbeat

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Cameron: Let’s Talk About the Phillies’ Playoff Odds (!)

According to Dave, Martin O’Malley might have a better chance of being the Democrat nominee.

See that flat line across the bottom? That’s the Phillies. Their 24-17 start hasn’t moved the needle, at all, on our forecasts expectations for their chances of reaching the postseason. Okay, that’s not exactly true; they’ve gone from a 0.1% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots in our preseason forecast all the way up to a 0.3% chance of getting to the play-in game now. But their odds of hanging on to the NL East? Still close enough zero to round down when displaying one decimal point.

This is, to some, puzzling. A question in my chat yesterday brought up the point that our system is far more bearish on the Phillies hot start leading to postseason success than others; Baseball Prospectus gives them a 2.3% chance of winning the division and a 7.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, for 10% overall odds of reaching the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish than that, putting them at 4% to win the NL East and 13% to reach the postseason. So why is our system so stubborn relative to others attempting to look into the same crystal ball in order to see what the final standings will look like in October?

Well, it’s worth noting that there are dramatic methodological differences between the way that we (and BP) do our forecasts and the way FiveThirtyEight is doing theirs. Our forecasts are essentially an amalgamation of individual player projections, summed up at the team level; BP does this same thing too, using their PECOTA projections where we use a mix of ZIPS of Steamer. FiveThirtyEight, on the other hand, is using Elo Ratings, which adjust up or down based on whether you win or lose a game, and how much of an upset that win (or loss) was relative to their pre-game expectations. While they used individual player projections to come up with their preseason Elo ratings, their in-season adjustments are based on responding to a team’s win-loss record.

Our system doesn’t care at all about a team’s actual record at any point in the season; it only looks at the individual player performances to try and ascertain whether there have been significant changes in expected playing time or production level to adjust the team’s expected record up or down. So far, ZIPS and Steamer look at what the Phillies players are doing and think “yeah, that’s basically what we expected.” Our preseason expected win% for the Phillies was .395; 41 games into the season, our rest-of-season expected win% for the Phillies is .396. And because they were starting from such a low baseline of expected wins, even their extra banked wins through the first six weeks don’t really change how often they make the postseason in our simulations; the strong start has taken them from 64 to 72 projected wins, but nobody’s making the playoffs at 72 wins, or anything close to it.


Thursday, December 31, 2015

Proposing a Third Option for MLB’s Schedule - THT

Ultimately, though, no adjustment is going to handle the central conflict baseball faces in this regard: Short postseason series don’t necessarily reward the best teams, and so any system that relies on short series is going to lead to unsatisfying outcomes (from a competitive fairness perspective). The fairest way of resolving this would be to have a perfectly balanced schedule and a single regular season champion (as is done in European soccer). The team that plays the best over the course of the season gets the trophy.

TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 31, 2015 at 10:08 AM | 71 comment(s)
  Beats: postseason

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Kiko Sakata
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogAtkins on Blue Jays’ reputation: ‘I think we’re misunderstood’ - Sportsnet.ca
(23 - 10:03pm, May 28)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogOT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(2660 - 10:03pm, May 28)
Last: Crosseyed and Painless

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 5-28-16
(187 - 10:02pm, May 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOTP 2016 May 23: Baseball owners hear from Democratic, Republican strategists
(1286 - 9:51pm, May 28)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogHector Olivera’s suspension doesn’t fully clarify future with Braves | Jeff Schultz blog
(17 - 9:10pm, May 28)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogRemington: How to Lose Fans and Alienate People: The 2016 Atlanta Braves
(11 - 8:55pm, May 28)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogTwins suspend pitching coach Neil Allen after DWI arrest
(13 - 8:35pm, May 28)
Last: bigglou115

NewsblogOT: Soccer March/April 2016
(1261 - 8:18pm, May 28)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogWade Boggs feels ‘back home’ as Red Sox retire his No. 26 at Fenway Park
(56 - 7:58pm, May 28)
Last: Dennis Eclairskey, closer

Sox TherapyMore About Guys Who Are Not Major Leaguers
(18 - 7:31pm, May 28)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogQuestions for the Cubs before they open a giant outdoor bar | Chicago Sun-Times
(8 - 5:19pm, May 28)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogUncompetitive Minor League Wages Might Be Deterring Talent
(65 - 5:11pm, May 28)
Last: Joe Kehoskie

NewsblogBaseball Prospectus | Tools of Ignorance: The Team-Mandated Player Opt-Out
(8 - 3:35pm, May 28)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogTony LaRussa invades booth to argue with Pirates braodcaster
(31 - 2:18pm, May 28)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogStew Thornley's macabre adventure: Visiting every dead baseball Hall of Famer's grave
(55 - 11:06am, May 28)
Last: Scott Lange

Page rendered in 0.9906 seconds
50 querie(s) executed