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Jim Furtado
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Projection Models Newsbeat

Friday, December 19, 2014


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

ESPN’s Dan Szymborski: Modeling Moneyball Data for Long-Term Value | Blue Hill Research (PODCAST)

Dan talks about ZiPS.

In this episode of the Enterprise Tech Cast, Blue Hill Chief Research Officer Hyoun Park and ESPN’s Dan Szymborski discuss how Dan got started in building statistical models and built the ZiPS player projection system. Anybody who wants to learn to develop an ongoing projection and forecasting system, and wants practical insights and how-to’s should listen to this podcast. Also, we stray off the enterprise path and discuss baseball free agency, including whether Pablo Sandoval is actually the right choice for the Red Sox.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 25, 2014 at 02:10 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: projection models, sabermetrics

Sunday, October 19, 2014

JAVIER prospect comparison system, now with speed! - Beyond the Box Score

After posting the original articles on JAVIER, I knew I would have to update these values after the season, which would provide an opportunity to build some improvements into the system.

As a refresher, JAVIER is a minor league hitting evaluation system that uses basic statistics and finds comparable players in history. It uses each player’s minor league walk, strikeout, and isolated power numbers and compares them to the league average, turning them into z-scores. These z-scores are then compared across minor league data spanning back to 1978. Read the previous description for a full understanding.

Before my prospect system got all fancy and had an official name, it only included walk and strikeout rate. The previous update added the name JAVIER, but more importantly isolated power as a means of differentiating between sluggers and slap hitters. This time I added speed, age adjustment and regression to league average elements. The productive, average, and bust categories still exist, but I instead use an average VORP approach to rank the players.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 19, 2014 at 05:23 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: projection models, projections, prospects

 

 

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