Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback



All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Editor - Baseball Primer


Pythag Newsbeat

Friday, July 10, 2015

How Much Should You Believe in the Standings? - Jeff Sullivan

FanGraphs has published in-season projections for a few years. These projections account for changes to the team depth charts, so they’re updated from preseason team projections. I was able to access them using the Wayback Machine. The goal here: what’s more predictive, between three months of performance and updated team projections? I have just two years of data, meaning a team sample of 60, but we can at least see what’s there.

Conclusion isn’t surprising: standings are pretty predictive, pythag is just about the same, projections are a little bit better.  But the predictiveness of a team’s record at three months is MUCH higher than it was in his previous study that looked at the two-month record. Basically, at two months there’s a good chance that divergence from predictions are just noise. At three months, there’s a pretty good bet that it’s real.

Baldrick Posted: July 10, 2015 at 03:03 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff sullivan, projections, pythag



BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
Eugene Freedman
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT Gaming: October 2015
(60 - 3:36am, Oct 10)
Last: DJS From Suplex City!

NewsblogBotched surgery made Joe DiMaggio impotent | Page Six
(6 - 2:29am, Oct 10)
Last: Walt Davis

(993 - 1:39am, Oct 10)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogStar-Studded All-Rookie Team Offers Immense Upside -
(17 - 1:35am, Oct 10)
Last: Cooper Nielson

NewsblogCal Ripken might be biggest risk for Nats, but he also offers biggest rewards - The Washington Post
(13 - 1:34am, Oct 10)
Last: Drexl Spivey

NewsblogOTP October 2015 II: Religion, Politics, Baseball - America's Favorite Pastimes Come Under the Microscope in Shaking the Tree's Gorgeous PASSION PLAY PART III
(713 - 1:31am, Oct 10)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogJohnny Cueto must reclaim his ace title in Game 2 | The Kansas City Star
(4 - 1:10am, Oct 10)
Last: Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos

NewsblogOT: NBA Pre-Season Thread
(221 - 12:33am, Oct 10)
Last: smileyy

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1118 - 10:50pm, Oct 09)
Last: NJ in DC (Now with Wife!)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1910 Discussion
(14 - 10:25pm, Oct 09)
Last: Chris Fluit

NewsblogCubs fan gets Jake Arrieta's face shaved into his head
(3 - 10:05pm, Oct 09)
Last: Spahn Insane is enjoying a malty libation.

NewsblogMariners reportedly dismiss Lloyd McClendon |
(16 - 8:35pm, Oct 09)
Last: PASTE Will Notice Harper When He Hits .467 (Zeth)

NewsblogA Short(-ish) Introduction to Using R Packages for Baseball Research – The Hardball Times
(8 - 8:04pm, Oct 09)
Last: depletion

NewsblogTheo Epstein Erases Losing Traditions as Baseball's Miracle Worker | Bleacher Report
(159 - 7:40pm, Oct 09)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogMLB Division Series set for 4 games in one day |
(14 - 7:13pm, Oct 09)
Last: Traderdave

Page rendered in 0.1567 seconds
46 querie(s) executed