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Regression To The Mean Newsbeat

Saturday, June 28, 2014

BtBS: The Home Run Derby doesn’t affect some types of hitters more

We keep hearing, though, that players whose swings aren’t built for home runs are particularly susceptible to getting out of whack because of a Derby. Is that true? Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer suffered wOBA drops in 2009 (.046 and .027, respectively), and other hitters who aren’t necessarily thought of as power-first guys have made up a pretty big chunk of the group of 40.

Taking the leap that power-first guys are also pull-first guys, I computed the percentage of the time that each of the 40 Derby participants hit the ball to their pull field (“Pull%”), as well as the percentage of the time that they batted the ball to the opposite field (“Oppo%”).

The results: there’s no evidence to suggest that all-fields hitters are more susceptible to a post-Derby slump than pull hitters.

bobm Posted: June 28, 2014 at 10:05 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: home run derby, regression to the mean

 

 

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