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Friday, September 19, 2014

Lindbergh: Dellin Betances’s Season & Bullpen Strategy

Dellin goes electric?

Despite being a setup man with only one save on the season, Betances has been lights-out enough to lead the majors in WPA — the first time a setup man has done so since Tyler Clippard in 2011. On the post-’88 leaderboard, though, the closers rise to the top, and Betances has to settle for a spot just inside the top 60.

Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: September 19, 2014 at 05:50 PM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: grantland, relief pitching, yankees

Lindbergh: Where Dellin Betances’s Season Ranks Historically, and What It Teaches Us About Bullpen Strategy

Despite being a setup man with only one save on the season, Betances has been lights-out enough to lead the majors in WPA — the first time a setup man has done so since Tyler Clippard in 2011. On the post-’88 leaderboard, though, the closers rise to the top, and Betances has to settle for a spot just inside the top 60.3

The Goldilocks stat we’re seeking — a counting stat that doesn’t discriminate based on leverage — is Run Expectancy Wins, or REW. Using a framework similar to WPA’s, REW calculates the difference between the number of runs a team is expected to score in the inning at the start and the end of each play, credits/debits the batter/pitcher accordingly, and then compiles the differences to arrive at a full-season total of wins added or subtracted. But because it’s not sensitive to inning or score — a two-out, bases-loaded strikeout counts the same in the seventh inning of a six-run game as it does in a ninth-inning tie — it’s closer to context-neutral than WPA, allowing us to pit Betances against guys who got the chance to finish more games.


Friday, August 15, 2014

How Bullpens Took Over Modern Baseball

The broader trend that goes back half a century is clear. In 1964 (four years after the save rule first came to baseball), teams used an average of 2.58 pitchers per game, including the starter; today, they’re using 3.92 pitchers per game. In ’64, relievers tossed an average of 2.64 innings per game; today, they’re throwing an eyelash more than three innings per game.
...
As a result, managers choose a few relievers from a phalanx of fireballers, then go get a few more if some of them break down.

In other words, the pitchers might be on the mound for fewer and fewer pitches, but the trend of harder throwers looks like it’s here to stay.

Doing the math, the average reliever in 1964 threw 1.67 IP/G as opposed to 1.03 IP/G today.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 15, 2014 at 01:03 PM | 64 comment(s)
  Beats: jonah keri, relief pitching

Monday, June 16, 2014

WSJ: At Least the Mets Are Good at One Thing… Bullpen Somehow Excels in Preventing Inherited Runners to Score

You can’t call the Mets “good for nothings.” They’re actually great at something. Entering Sunday, they ranked second-best ever at preventing inherited runners from scoring.

Only 20 of 109 inherited runners have scored against the Mets, a rate of 18.3%. Since Stats LLC began tracking the statistic in 1974, just one team has been better—the 1995 Cleveland Indians (17.7%). The 1988 Mets are third-best at 18.8%.

Too bad they’re 7th of 30 this season in games the relief pitcher pitched in more than one inning.

bobm Posted: June 16, 2014 at 06:44 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: mets, relief pitching

 

 

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