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Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Royals continue to defy projections

“I really think the bullpen can explain at least half of that overperformance during the year,” Davenport said. “Their bullpen is that good.”

But how can just one aspect of a team be so disproportionately responsible for underestimating the entire team? Without turning this into a Ph.D. dissertation, we could sum it up a couple of ways.

Many stats define how great this bullpen has been. But it all comes back to this: When the Royals have led after eight innings over the past four seasons, they’ve gone 241-4. When they’ve led after seven, they’ve gone 211-10. So when you win pretty much every game in which you take a lead, over that many years, you’re defying all probability and all norms of bullpen volatility.

Not to mention, Davenport said, that only in the bullpen does a team have “the ability to selectively use [its] best players at key times.” So where most projections assume that players find themselves in a wide variety of random situations, “Wade Davis is not used in a random fashion,” Davenport said, “but at very precise, high-impact times.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 20, 2016 at 11:46 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: pecota, projections, relievers, royals

Sunday, March 27, 2016

End-game edge: Pirates, savvy MLB teams turn focus to bullpen | TribLIVE

All about relievers.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 27, 2016 at 08:44 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: pirates, relievers

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Fernando Perez: The Wade Davis Experience

Fernando Perez was a pretty thoughtful player, and now he’s a pretty interesting writer.

With that in mind, here are two pitchers who make compelling cases for bullpen conversion:

Ivan Nova:

After two years of back-end-of-the-rotation numbers as a rookie and second-year pitcher, Nova showed promise in 2013 when he posted a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 IP. In his last two seasons he has underachieved while battling injuries. Nova’s average fastball velocity of around 93 MPH is similar to Wade Davis’ velocity as a starter. Nova could see the same rise in velocity as a reliever. The Yankees current need is starting pitching, so they’ll likely try to keep Nova in the rotation.

Edwin Jackson:

Despite front-of-the-rotation stuff, Edwin Jackson has posted mid-to-back-of-the-rotation numbers throughout his career. In the last few years, he has failed to make the starting rotation, instead dwelling in the dreaded purgatory between relieving and starting. With an average fastball velocity of about 94 MPH, it’s not crazy to think Edwin could hit 100 mph as a reliever, which would allow him to use more of the plate and potentially alleviate his command anxieties.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 13, 2016 at 09:58 PM | 19 comment(s)
  Beats: edwin jackson, fernando perez, ivan nova, relievers, wade davis

 

 

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