Rockies’ end-of-season rotation analysis: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez shined; Jon Gray fizzled

The secret to the Rockies’ success in 2018 was no secret at all.

“I think it’s pretty easy. I think it’s the starting pitching honestly, giving us a chance to win every game, game in and game out,”  all-star third baseman Nolan Arenado said.

Numbers illustrate Arenado’s words. Colorado’s rotation:

-Posted a 4.17 ERA, the second-lowest in franchise history (2009 playoff had a 4.10 ERA);
-Had 84 quality starts, the third-most in franchise history
-Struck out 883, sixth in the National League and by far the most in franchise history. (2010 team had 779).

Rockies Have a Blueprint for Long-term Deal With Arenado

Will Blackmon’s downturn give the Rockies cold feet with Arenado?

Tony Wolters’ big hit sends Rockies to NLDS | MLB.com

So it begins. Tough time of year for me. First I have to deal with withdrawals from the end of the season. Next I have to deal with little sleep as I **try** to stay awake until the end of playoff games. On the bright side, I get to play around with the end of season data to scout players for next year’s sim and fantasy leagues. TINO!!

Elevating Rockies’ game? Coors seems to factor in awards

DENVER — The Colorado Rockies would like to air a little grievance: They’re thin on MVP winners in their history. Even lighter on Cy Young candidates.

They wouldn’t mind a little altitude adjustment when it comes to conventional thinking at Coors Field. As it stands, sometimes they feel like hitters get penalized for hitting at higher elevation half the time and the pitchers don’t get rewarded highly enough.

It’s a scale that doesn’t seem balanced.

A point of some interest to ponder, especially as we consider how the BBWAA will treat Todd Helton in the coming months.

LEADING OFF: Rockies head to Wrigley for wild-card one-off

A look at what’s happening around the majors today:

WILD TIMES

The Rockies head to Wrigley Field for a wild-card showdown with the Cubs after both teams lost tiebreaking games Monday with division crowns on the line. Colorado missed out on a first NL West title in a 5-2 loss at the Dodgers , then quickly scooted off for Chicago. The Cubs await them there after falling to Milwaukee 3-1 with the NL Central on the line.

So, any predictions?

MLB Playoff Picture Update | MLB.com

Crazy!

Dodgers just 0.5 games behind Rockies

Dodgers now just 0.5 games behind the Rockies after a 4-2 road victory in Coors Field. The Rockies with 1 game in hand. They clash again today (Kyle Freeland, 2.96 in 170.1 innings, vs Walker Buehler, 2.92 in 104.2 innings) and tomorrow, plus three more times in SoCal in two weeks. Dodgers now healthy, Kershaw back from DL. Dodgers still yet to play @ Cards 3 times, plus they close the season with a tough six games @ Arizona and San Francisco. Rockies will play D-Backs twice more, SF on the road and close out with a homestand vs the Phillies and Nats.
The Poor D-Backs, though…

Rockies’ Trevor Story hit the longest home run in Statcast era on Wednesday

Five hundred and five feet.

That’s how far Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story hit a home run on Wednesday night at Coors Field during a game against the San Francisco Giants.

Fangraphs: Jeff Sullivan: The Particular Skill of Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland has been the Rockies’ best pitcher this season, currently with an ERA+ of 160 and a bWAR of 6.8.  That WAR total is the second best season in Rockies’ history. (Ubaldo Jimenez is #1 with 7.5 WAR in 2010.)

Freeland’s ERA (2.90) is far better than his FIP (3.80) and other peripherals-based stats would suggest.  Jeff Sullivan writes about Freeland’s strengths, comparing his location to Mariano Rivera and Tom Glavine:

I’ve mentioned Rivera and Glavine, and I’ve shown you their heat maps, because this is what you find when you look up Freeland’s performance, which has resulted in a lot of soft contact:

The visual parallels are evident. Freeland has attacked to the glove side, and Freeland has attacked to the arm side. There’s no easy way of checking for similar heat maps, but this kind of split is not very common. Somewhat frequently, you’ll find guys who live on one side or the other. Freeland lives on both sides; he doesn’t live down the middle. No starting pitcher in baseball this year has thrown a lower rate of pitches over the middle of the plate. Freeland is staying away from the barrels.

How Not to Call Up a Position Player Prospect

Despite their third-place finish, there were plenty of reasons to be excited about the Rockies’ future in 2016. That year, Baseball America ranked David Dahl (22), Ryan McMahon (43), and Tom Murphy (97) among the Top 100 Prospects in the game, and Raimel Tapia (49) joined them in 2017. All four had advanced at least to Double-A by 2016—Tom Murphy was in Triple-A and had already made his major-league debut—and Rockies fans believed that well-regarded, young reinforcements were on their way to Coors Field to augment Nolan Arenado and a burgeoning pitching staff.

Two years later, neither Dahl, McMahon, or Tapia are starting at the major-league level, and Tom Murphy’s status appears undefined as well. Tapia was recently sent back down to Albuquerque after an 18-game stint with the big-league club, during which he received a grand total of 20 plate appearances. McMahon has been yoyoed between Denver and Albuquerque all year and has started back-to-back games only fifteen times.

This piece focuses on the Rockies and their reluctance to put their prospects in the lineup, but the scope goes much broader than that. A nice look at which teams are willing to go with the kids (spoiler alert: it’s the good teams).

Taking Back the Ballparks - Colorado Rockies

The westernmost park I’ve ever visited. My one night there, I watched Aaron Cook throw a 79-pitch, four-hit, no-walk shutout against the Padres in a nifty one hour, 58 minutes. I haven’t been paying attention: Does it still play as such a severe pitcher’s park?

Truthfully, it’s behind only PNC on my personal favorite list. Just a beautiful place in a really nice setting. And that’s something coming from me, as I don’t like spending time west of the Mississippi, or south of the Ohio. I’m weird like that.

Coors, of course, is one of those rare corporate names that truly feels right for a number of reasons. Can we improve on a park named after the world’s best beer-flavored water? Based on its inclusion in By Acclimation Week, I’m not sure we’re going to try.

Tomorrow: The Birds’ Nest

Ballpark History

Built: 1995

Capacity: 46,897

Name: Coors Field, 1995-present.

Other ballparks used by club in its current city: Mile High Stadium 1993-94.

Distinctive Features: the Rockpile bleachers in the outfield just beyond the Rocky Mountain themed landscaping; the purple ring of seats on the 20th row of the upper deck, signifying one mile above sea level; Blue Moon Brewery at The Sandlot.

Ballpark Highlights:

During construction of the park, workers discovered several dinosaur fossils on the grounds, including a triceratops skull. The club honored that find by choosing a triceratops as its mascot, Dinger.

On Oct. 1, 1995, the Rocks outlasted the Giants 10-9 in a typical Coors Field slugfest to claim the NL wildcard, becoming the fastest expansion team to reach the playoffs in ML history (a mark later broken by their rivals to the southwest).

On May 5, 2002, in a game against the visiting Dodgers, the Rockies dabbled in PDD* with the launch of the humidor. Three years later, Jason Jennings blanked the visiting Padres for the first 1-0 victory in park history, more than 10 years after the maiden game was played there. 

On Oct. 1, 2007, Matt Holliday may or may not have slid home safely with the winning run in a one-game playoff with San Diego, culminating one of the all-time great closing runs in baseball history. The Rockies would keep the momentum for the following fortnight, sweeping the Phillies and Diamondbacks to reach their only World Series.

In 2016, Ichiro Suzuki collected his 3,000th hit with a seventh-inning triple off Rockies pitcher Chris Rusin. We can only hope that a Peyton Manning celebratory text went unreturned.
*Power Dampening Device,

Adam Ottavino Rebuilt Himself in a Vacant Manhattan Storefront (Sawchuck)

Ottavino’s great start may be overshadowed by Josh Hader’s, but 31 K’s, 4 BB’s and 1 one run allowed in 17 innings is good stuff.

Between West 124th and 125th Streets on St. Nicholas Ave. in Harlem rests a street-level commercial space situated between a Dollar Tree and a Chuck E. Cheese’s, and it is where Adam Ottavino might have saved his career last winter.

...He thought he had now had some solutions. He had bought tens of thousands of dollars worth of equipment with which to try and make himself a better pitcher. But he needed a place to experiment.

His father-in-law, a real-estate developer, had an idea. He had a vacated commercial property, a former Nine West shoe store, that rented at $22,000 per month. He would allow Ottavino to use the space for four months for free that winter as a high-tech, makeshift throwing facility.

VIDEO: Rockies Announcers Sound Like Complete Idiots Talking About Javier Baez

The Chicago Cubs beat the Colorado Rockies 9-7 to win the weekend series on the road and it was quite an interesting finale on Sunday afternoon. Several weird events transpired, including Javier Baez trying to block DJ LeMahieu’s view at second base that drew the ire of the Rockies broadcast team.

Javy is fun.

AT&T Park, Fenway Park and Wrigley Field top list of Rockies’ favorite ballparks

This is a fun story based on a simple idea: Ask the Rockies what ballparks they like or dislike.

“I’m not a big Wrigley guy,” Blackmon said. “I mean, yeah, it’s cool. But I don’t like being cramped, with no (batting) cages, no weight room, none of that stuff. The dugout is small and I hit my head on the top of the dugout — every time.

“And in the bathroom, near the dugout, I can make eye contact with the people in the stands while I’m using the bathroom. So that’s never good.”

Yard Goats Facing Season On The Road

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Hartford Yard Goats this season. Now, the team’s scenario is careering rapidly toward the worst case.

Hartford mayor Luke Bronin at a Monday press conference on Monday announced that the stadium’s developers, DoNo Hartford and Centerplan Cos., were being removed from the long-delayed project.

The announcement came after the developer took issue with the team’s release of the still-unfinished items at Dunkin Donuts Park, which was last scheduled to be turned over to the Yard Goats on May 17 in preparation for a May 31 opener.

At Monday’s news conference, according to the Hartford Courant, Bronin revealed that the impetus for the decision involved an e-mail from the developers notifying him that the remaining work would take at least 60 days to complete.

Also at issue, Bronin said, was the concern from the developers that they might not have the funds to complete the project without requesting more money from the city. The stadium was already slated to cost the city $47,050,000.

Deal revived, Rockies acquire 2B Marco Scutaro from Red Sox

Il Milione Man March heads west…

The Rockies have agreed in principle on a deal to acquire Boston infielder Marco Scutaro for pitcher Clayton Mortensen, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks.

The Rockies’ earmarked Scutaro as a target when the offseason began, seeing him as a starting second baseman and potential No. 2 hitter in the lineup. The deal went on life support Friday, but was revived today when the Rockies were able to work through some financial issues to take on Scutaro’s $6 million contract.

It will become official shortly as the players involved are notified.

...Mortensen is an extreme groundball pitcher, relying heavily on a sinker. He went 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA, splitting between between the bullpen and rotation.

With Scutaro in the fold, the Rockies will enter spring training with one of their deepest lineups in franchise history. He will join outfielder Michael Cuddyer and catcher Ramon Hernandez as key acquisitions, completely reshaping the lineup around Carlos Gonzalez and all-star cleanup hitter Troy Tulowitzki.

Plain Dealer | Cleveland Indians acquire Kevin Slowey

The Indians acquired Slowey and a reported $1.25 million from the Rockies for right-hander Zach Putnam.

SI.com: Economic considerations at heart of Carmona’s decision

An interesting analysis of signing ages, signing bonuses, and success rates in the Dominican Republic, by Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated ...

Teams pay premiums for 16-year-olds for two primary reasons: One, because teams often want to be the first to sign a promising player and, thus, avoid bidding wars with other teams; and two, clubs prefer to develop their players’ skills under the watchful eyes of their own club personnel rather than under those of unqualified and unaffiliated coaches or trainers.

But are 18-year-old Latin American players really worth 70 percent less than their 16-year-old counterparts? Here’s another data analysis that calls into question the industry practice of placing a premium on youth. Let’s assume the most basic marker of a successful signing is making it to the majors. We’ll make it simple and look at the 79 players who have made their major league debuts from 2008-2011 from Carmona’s Dominican Republic. Of those 79, only six were signed as 16-year-olds. The debuts suggest older players were more likely to advance to the majors. ...

[...]

What’s more, SI tracked down the bonus data for 60 of the 79 players. Fernando Martinez, signed by the Mets in 2005 for $1.3 million, was the only one to receive a seven-figure bonus. Only nine others signed for six figures and one — the Rockies’ Juan Nicasio — received nada to sign, according to the data obtained by SI. The median signing bonus among them tallied a paltry $35,000.

Q&A: Larry Walker on his Hall of Fame snub

“Mr. Walker is not a suspect…We don’t know if the person was killed at the site or if his body was dumped there.”

CBCSports.ca: Who’s more upset about your low vote total in the second year of your 15 years of eligibility: you or your family, friends and former teammates with Colorado and Montreal?

LW: I don’t think it bothers me a lot. Why am I going to get my feathers all ruffled over something that’s out of my control? Obviously, it would be an amazing honour.

Some people have pointed some things out to me that made me wonder. [Designated hitter] Edgar Martinez [only played 592 of his 2,055 career games in the field] and he’s getting twice as many votes as me [36.5 per cent to Walker’s 22.9 per cent]. Is Edgar Martinez twice the better player than me?

Not to pat myself on the back but I think I was as good as Edgar Martinez.

But I’m not going to rack my brain. I’m sure there’s people that are in the Hall of Fame that a lot people think shouldn’t be there or some that should be there and aren’t.

CBCSports.ca: The knock against you when people say Larry Walker shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame is that you played 10 of your 17 seasons at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. But a lot of times players can’t control where they play, right?

LW: I was in the big leagues, man. Are you she—-in me? You can’t always pick where you go or what happens. You just roll with the friggin’ punches. I was in the dugout trying to beat the other 25 guys in the dugout beside us. That’s all I tried to do. I can’t control where I’m at and the numbers that go up. Every ballpark has its quirks.

If you read something in the paper or a magazine or hear something on TV, whether it’s negative or positive, people tend to want to go that way with it. If what was being printed all this time was ‘Walker deserves the [Hall of Fame nod], he’s going to make it,’ I bet my percentage would be a lot higher. But all you hear about is Coors Field. That’s all I’ve heard since my first game in Denver [in 1995].

Rox sign Jaime Moyer to Minor League deal

Fun fact: When the Rockies came into existence, Jaime Moyer was in his eighth Major League season.

The Rockies’ search for a veteran for the starting rotation could take them to the ultimate veteran, 49-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer.

Colorado and Moyer have agreed to a Minor League deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training, the club announced on Wednesday. The agreement is pending a physical.

Moyer underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow in 2010 and didn’t pitch last season. The lefty worked as an analyst for ESPN in 2011 but stated that he intended to try to pitch again in ‘12.

Moyer went 9-9 with a 4.84 ERA for the Phillies in 2010.

L.A. Times: The Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Tebow and Jesus Christ

Kershaw is a devout Christian, though unlike Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow, he is hardly in your face about it. Kershaw and Tebow are two highly famous young professional athletes who outwardly approach their strong faith in markedly different ways.

If there is a showy, look-at-me aspect to Tebow and his kneeling in prayer on the football field and near zeal off it, Kershaw is more understated in his approach, if no less sincere.

I’ve never heard him bring up God in postgame interviews or seen him point to the sky after a big strikeout. Yet, I still have a clear understanding of his commitment.

“I think everybody has different approaches to it,” Kershaw said. “For me, everything I do has a purpose to it beyond what’s in this lifetime. At the same time, on the field I have a job to do and that’s what I’m focused on.

“I guess you could say I’m a little more understated than Tim is. Not to say either one is wrong, that’s just kind of my personality a little bit.”

Indeed, even if it’s not exactly his way, Kershaw admires Tebow for using his high-profile platform to bring attention to his faith.

“I have a lot of respect for Tim,” Kershaw said. “I don’t know him personally, but I think what he’s doing is special. I think what he’s trying to do should be recognized, in whatever way that you try to do it. He’s playing football but I think there’s more to it than that.

A’s trade Moscoso, Outman for Seth Smith

#### THE GOLDEN GLOBES!

Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s continued their extreme offseason makeover Monday with yet another trade. This time Beane shipped pitchers Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso to the Rockies for outfielder Seth Smith—who has been involved in trade rumors throughout the offseason.

Smith, 29, has served mostly as a fourth outfielder type for the Rockies since 2008, but he got a career high 533 plate appearances last season. He hit .284/.347/.483 with 15 homers, 32 doubles and 10 stolen bases. He hasn’t played center field since 2008, so he’s best used as a corner outfielder. He’ll likely be the starter in left field with Coco Crisp in center and Josh Reddick in right. Of course, prospect Michael Taylor is going to figure in the mix at some point.

One item of note: Smith’s career splits indicate he was hugely helped by Coors Field. He’s hit .296/.366/.559 at home and .257/.332/.418 on the road. And Oakland plays in one of the worst hitters’ parks in the majors.

Moscoso, 28, was 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 128 innings last season. Outman, 27, was 3-5 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. And, again, we’ll note that these two pitchers are going from having a very pitcher-friendly home park to one of the most hitter-friendly yards in the bigs.

MLB.com: Wainwright expresses admiration for Tebow

ST. LOUIS—Hours before taking the field against the New England Patriots on Saturday night, Tim Tebow found himself the center of discussion in the Cardinals’ interview room. Yes, these days it seems as if there is no setting that the Broncos quarterback can’t effectively infiltrate.

Putting his Southeastern Conference allegiance aside, Adam Wainwright spent several minutes expressing his admiration for Tebow, particularly for the fearless the University of Florida product shows in expressing his religious faith in a public forum.

“I am obsessed with Tim Tebow,” Wainwright said. “I’m not afraid to say it. It’s almost embarrassing to us athletes that this much emphasis is put on Tim Tebow because that means we aren’t living our lives as we should. If we did that more often, the way he is living wouldn’t be as big a story. I’m so proud of him for living out his faith.”

MLB Trade Rumors: Bartolo Colon Agrees to Sign With Unknown Team

Bartolo Colon has agreed to a deal with an unknown club reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). The right-hander wouldn’t divulge the team because he has not yet passed his physical.

Pretty sure it’s either the All-Stars or the Champs.

ESPN’s OTL: Strength from Weakness (Ben Petrick profile)

Who could have known? Who could have known that a player some considered a potential Hall of Fame catcher [...] would have his future stolen from him by an incurable disease that rarely afflicts people as young as 22?

How good was Petrick? Go back and look at his stats. In those 240 games for the Rockies and Tigers, he hit .257 with 27 home runs and 94 RBIs while trying to control the symptoms of Parkinson’s, which include tremors, rigidity and slow movements. He was not only tough enough to be a catcher, the most demanding position on the field, but also athletic enough to play centerfield when he wasn’t behind the plate.

“Looking back, I am amazed at what he accomplished,” says Rockies first baseman Todd Helton, who was Colorado’s first pick in the 1995 draft, the year Petrick was taken in the second round. “It’s hard enough performing at the highest level of this game, which he did. On top of that, he had to fight off a disease that robbed him of his physical ability. And on top of that, he had to play under the tremendous pressure of hiding the effects of that disease.”

Helton pauses. “You know what, though?” he says. “I’m more impressed by what he’s done with his life since.”