Rockies’ end-of-season rotation analysis: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez shined; Jon Gray fizzled

The secret to the Rockies’ success in 2018 was no secret at all.

“I think it’s pretty easy. I think it’s the starting pitching honestly, giving us a chance to win every game, game in and game out,”  all-star third baseman Nolan Arenado said.

Numbers illustrate Arenado’s words. Colorado’s rotation:

-Posted a 4.17 ERA, the second-lowest in franchise history (2009 playoff had a 4.10 ERA);
-Had 84 quality starts, the third-most in franchise history
-Struck out 883, sixth in the National League and by far the most in franchise history. (2010 team had 779).

Rockies Have a Blueprint for Long-term Deal With Arenado

Will Blackmon’s downturn give the Rockies cold feet with Arenado?

Tony Wolters’ big hit sends Rockies to NLDS | MLB.com

So it begins. Tough time of year for me. First I have to deal with withdrawals from the end of the season. Next I have to deal with little sleep as I **try** to stay awake until the end of playoff games. On the bright side, I get to play around with the end of season data to scout players for next year’s sim and fantasy leagues. TINO!!

Elevating Rockies’ game? Coors seems to factor in awards

DENVER — The Colorado Rockies would like to air a little grievance: They’re thin on MVP winners in their history. Even lighter on Cy Young candidates.

They wouldn’t mind a little altitude adjustment when it comes to conventional thinking at Coors Field. As it stands, sometimes they feel like hitters get penalized for hitting at higher elevation half the time and the pitchers don’t get rewarded highly enough.

It’s a scale that doesn’t seem balanced.

A point of some interest to ponder, especially as we consider how the BBWAA will treat Todd Helton in the coming months.

LEADING OFF: Rockies head to Wrigley for wild-card one-off

A look at what’s happening around the majors today:

WILD TIMES

The Rockies head to Wrigley Field for a wild-card showdown with the Cubs after both teams lost tiebreaking games Monday with division crowns on the line. Colorado missed out on a first NL West title in a 5-2 loss at the Dodgers , then quickly scooted off for Chicago. The Cubs await them there after falling to Milwaukee 3-1 with the NL Central on the line.

So, any predictions?

MLB Playoff Picture Update | MLB.com

Crazy!

Dodgers just 0.5 games behind Rockies

Dodgers now just 0.5 games behind the Rockies after a 4-2 road victory in Coors Field. The Rockies with 1 game in hand. They clash again today (Kyle Freeland, 2.96 in 170.1 innings, vs Walker Buehler, 2.92 in 104.2 innings) and tomorrow, plus three more times in SoCal in two weeks. Dodgers now healthy, Kershaw back from DL. Dodgers still yet to play @ Cards 3 times, plus they close the season with a tough six games @ Arizona and San Francisco. Rockies will play D-Backs twice more, SF on the road and close out with a homestand vs the Phillies and Nats.
The Poor D-Backs, though…

Rockies’ Trevor Story hit the longest home run in Statcast era on Wednesday

Five hundred and five feet.

That’s how far Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story hit a home run on Wednesday night at Coors Field during a game against the San Francisco Giants.

Fangraphs: Jeff Sullivan: The Particular Skill of Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland has been the Rockies’ best pitcher this season, currently with an ERA+ of 160 and a bWAR of 6.8.  That WAR total is the second best season in Rockies’ history. (Ubaldo Jimenez is #1 with 7.5 WAR in 2010.)

Freeland’s ERA (2.90) is far better than his FIP (3.80) and other peripherals-based stats would suggest.  Jeff Sullivan writes about Freeland’s strengths, comparing his location to Mariano Rivera and Tom Glavine:

I’ve mentioned Rivera and Glavine, and I’ve shown you their heat maps, because this is what you find when you look up Freeland’s performance, which has resulted in a lot of soft contact:

The visual parallels are evident. Freeland has attacked to the glove side, and Freeland has attacked to the arm side. There’s no easy way of checking for similar heat maps, but this kind of split is not very common. Somewhat frequently, you’ll find guys who live on one side or the other. Freeland lives on both sides; he doesn’t live down the middle. No starting pitcher in baseball this year has thrown a lower rate of pitches over the middle of the plate. Freeland is staying away from the barrels.

How Not to Call Up a Position Player Prospect

Despite their third-place finish, there were plenty of reasons to be excited about the Rockies’ future in 2016. That year, Baseball America ranked David Dahl (22), Ryan McMahon (43), and Tom Murphy (97) among the Top 100 Prospects in the game, and Raimel Tapia (49) joined them in 2017. All four had advanced at least to Double-A by 2016—Tom Murphy was in Triple-A and had already made his major-league debut—and Rockies fans believed that well-regarded, young reinforcements were on their way to Coors Field to augment Nolan Arenado and a burgeoning pitching staff.

Two years later, neither Dahl, McMahon, or Tapia are starting at the major-league level, and Tom Murphy’s status appears undefined as well. Tapia was recently sent back down to Albuquerque after an 18-game stint with the big-league club, during which he received a grand total of 20 plate appearances. McMahon has been yoyoed between Denver and Albuquerque all year and has started back-to-back games only fifteen times.

This piece focuses on the Rockies and their reluctance to put their prospects in the lineup, but the scope goes much broader than that. A nice look at which teams are willing to go with the kids (spoiler alert: it’s the good teams).

Deal revived, Rockies acquire 2B Marco Scutaro from Red Sox

Il Milione Man March heads west…

The Rockies have agreed in principle on a deal to acquire Boston infielder Marco Scutaro for pitcher Clayton Mortensen, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks.

The Rockies’ earmarked Scutaro as a target when the offseason began, seeing him as a starting second baseman and potential No. 2 hitter in the lineup. The deal went on life support Friday, but was revived today when the Rockies were able to work through some financial issues to take on Scutaro’s $6 million contract.

It will become official shortly as the players involved are notified.

...Mortensen is an extreme groundball pitcher, relying heavily on a sinker. He went 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA, splitting between between the bullpen and rotation.

With Scutaro in the fold, the Rockies will enter spring training with one of their deepest lineups in franchise history. He will join outfielder Michael Cuddyer and catcher Ramon Hernandez as key acquisitions, completely reshaping the lineup around Carlos Gonzalez and all-star cleanup hitter Troy Tulowitzki.

Plain Dealer | Cleveland Indians acquire Kevin Slowey

The Indians acquired Slowey and a reported $1.25 million from the Rockies for right-hander Zach Putnam.

SI.com: Economic considerations at heart of Carmona’s decision

An interesting analysis of signing ages, signing bonuses, and success rates in the Dominican Republic, by Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated ...

Teams pay premiums for 16-year-olds for two primary reasons: One, because teams often want to be the first to sign a promising player and, thus, avoid bidding wars with other teams; and two, clubs prefer to develop their players’ skills under the watchful eyes of their own club personnel rather than under those of unqualified and unaffiliated coaches or trainers.

But are 18-year-old Latin American players really worth 70 percent less than their 16-year-old counterparts? Here’s another data analysis that calls into question the industry practice of placing a premium on youth. Let’s assume the most basic marker of a successful signing is making it to the majors. We’ll make it simple and look at the 79 players who have made their major league debuts from 2008-2011 from Carmona’s Dominican Republic. Of those 79, only six were signed as 16-year-olds. The debuts suggest older players were more likely to advance to the majors. ...

[...]

What’s more, SI tracked down the bonus data for 60 of the 79 players. Fernando Martinez, signed by the Mets in 2005 for $1.3 million, was the only one to receive a seven-figure bonus. Only nine others signed for six figures and one — the Rockies’ Juan Nicasio — received nada to sign, according to the data obtained by SI. The median signing bonus among them tallied a paltry $35,000.

Q&A: Larry Walker on his Hall of Fame snub

“Mr. Walker is not a suspect…We don’t know if the person was killed at the site or if his body was dumped there.”

CBCSports.ca: Who’s more upset about your low vote total in the second year of your 15 years of eligibility: you or your family, friends and former teammates with Colorado and Montreal?

LW: I don’t think it bothers me a lot. Why am I going to get my feathers all ruffled over something that’s out of my control? Obviously, it would be an amazing honour.

Some people have pointed some things out to me that made me wonder. [Designated hitter] Edgar Martinez [only played 592 of his 2,055 career games in the field] and he’s getting twice as many votes as me [36.5 per cent to Walker’s 22.9 per cent]. Is Edgar Martinez twice the better player than me?

Not to pat myself on the back but I think I was as good as Edgar Martinez.

But I’m not going to rack my brain. I’m sure there’s people that are in the Hall of Fame that a lot people think shouldn’t be there or some that should be there and aren’t.

CBCSports.ca: The knock against you when people say Larry Walker shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame is that you played 10 of your 17 seasons at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. But a lot of times players can’t control where they play, right?

LW: I was in the big leagues, man. Are you she—-in me? You can’t always pick where you go or what happens. You just roll with the friggin’ punches. I was in the dugout trying to beat the other 25 guys in the dugout beside us. That’s all I tried to do. I can’t control where I’m at and the numbers that go up. Every ballpark has its quirks.

If you read something in the paper or a magazine or hear something on TV, whether it’s negative or positive, people tend to want to go that way with it. If what was being printed all this time was ‘Walker deserves the [Hall of Fame nod], he’s going to make it,’ I bet my percentage would be a lot higher. But all you hear about is Coors Field. That’s all I’ve heard since my first game in Denver [in 1995].

Rox sign Jaime Moyer to Minor League deal

Fun fact: When the Rockies came into existence, Jaime Moyer was in his eighth Major League season.

The Rockies’ search for a veteran for the starting rotation could take them to the ultimate veteran, 49-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer.

Colorado and Moyer have agreed to a Minor League deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training, the club announced on Wednesday. The agreement is pending a physical.

Moyer underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow in 2010 and didn’t pitch last season. The lefty worked as an analyst for ESPN in 2011 but stated that he intended to try to pitch again in ‘12.

Moyer went 9-9 with a 4.84 ERA for the Phillies in 2010.

L.A. Times: The Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Tebow and Jesus Christ

Kershaw is a devout Christian, though unlike Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow, he is hardly in your face about it. Kershaw and Tebow are two highly famous young professional athletes who outwardly approach their strong faith in markedly different ways.

If there is a showy, look-at-me aspect to Tebow and his kneeling in prayer on the football field and near zeal off it, Kershaw is more understated in his approach, if no less sincere.

I’ve never heard him bring up God in postgame interviews or seen him point to the sky after a big strikeout. Yet, I still have a clear understanding of his commitment.

“I think everybody has different approaches to it,” Kershaw said. “For me, everything I do has a purpose to it beyond what’s in this lifetime. At the same time, on the field I have a job to do and that’s what I’m focused on.

“I guess you could say I’m a little more understated than Tim is. Not to say either one is wrong, that’s just kind of my personality a little bit.”

Indeed, even if it’s not exactly his way, Kershaw admires Tebow for using his high-profile platform to bring attention to his faith.

“I have a lot of respect for Tim,” Kershaw said. “I don’t know him personally, but I think what he’s doing is special. I think what he’s trying to do should be recognized, in whatever way that you try to do it. He’s playing football but I think there’s more to it than that.

A’s trade Moscoso, Outman for Seth Smith

#### THE GOLDEN GLOBES!

Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s continued their extreme offseason makeover Monday with yet another trade. This time Beane shipped pitchers Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso to the Rockies for outfielder Seth Smith—who has been involved in trade rumors throughout the offseason.

Smith, 29, has served mostly as a fourth outfielder type for the Rockies since 2008, but he got a career high 533 plate appearances last season. He hit .284/.347/.483 with 15 homers, 32 doubles and 10 stolen bases. He hasn’t played center field since 2008, so he’s best used as a corner outfielder. He’ll likely be the starter in left field with Coco Crisp in center and Josh Reddick in right. Of course, prospect Michael Taylor is going to figure in the mix at some point.

One item of note: Smith’s career splits indicate he was hugely helped by Coors Field. He’s hit .296/.366/.559 at home and .257/.332/.418 on the road. And Oakland plays in one of the worst hitters’ parks in the majors.

Moscoso, 28, was 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 128 innings last season. Outman, 27, was 3-5 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. And, again, we’ll note that these two pitchers are going from having a very pitcher-friendly home park to one of the most hitter-friendly yards in the bigs.

MLB.com: Wainwright expresses admiration for Tebow

ST. LOUIS—Hours before taking the field against the New England Patriots on Saturday night, Tim Tebow found himself the center of discussion in the Cardinals’ interview room. Yes, these days it seems as if there is no setting that the Broncos quarterback can’t effectively infiltrate.

Putting his Southeastern Conference allegiance aside, Adam Wainwright spent several minutes expressing his admiration for Tebow, particularly for the fearless the University of Florida product shows in expressing his religious faith in a public forum.

“I am obsessed with Tim Tebow,” Wainwright said. “I’m not afraid to say it. It’s almost embarrassing to us athletes that this much emphasis is put on Tim Tebow because that means we aren’t living our lives as we should. If we did that more often, the way he is living wouldn’t be as big a story. I’m so proud of him for living out his faith.”

MLB Trade Rumors: Bartolo Colon Agrees to Sign With Unknown Team

Bartolo Colon has agreed to a deal with an unknown club reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). The right-hander wouldn’t divulge the team because he has not yet passed his physical.

Pretty sure it’s either the All-Stars or the Champs.

ESPN’s OTL: Strength from Weakness (Ben Petrick profile)

Who could have known? Who could have known that a player some considered a potential Hall of Fame catcher [...] would have his future stolen from him by an incurable disease that rarely afflicts people as young as 22?

How good was Petrick? Go back and look at his stats. In those 240 games for the Rockies and Tigers, he hit .257 with 27 home runs and 94 RBIs while trying to control the symptoms of Parkinson’s, which include tremors, rigidity and slow movements. He was not only tough enough to be a catcher, the most demanding position on the field, but also athletic enough to play centerfield when he wasn’t behind the plate.

“Looking back, I am amazed at what he accomplished,” says Rockies first baseman Todd Helton, who was Colorado’s first pick in the 1995 draft, the year Petrick was taken in the second round. “It’s hard enough performing at the highest level of this game, which he did. On top of that, he had to fight off a disease that robbed him of his physical ability. And on top of that, he had to play under the tremendous pressure of hiding the effects of that disease.”

Helton pauses. “You know what, though?” he says. “I’m more impressed by what he’s done with his life since.”

Derrick Goold: The Ballad of a Fallen Newspaper Box

When I was a kid…we had a daffy WWII vet who sold the “number”-fueled Daily News outside a wonderfully filthy go-go bar. One night a drunk cabbie ran him over flatline. He was never replaced.

As a kid one of my daily destinations was the entry into our subdivision at the corner of Hoover Avenue and whatever that length of Cherry Street was called that week (Bella Vista?). There, every morning, no matter the weather — rain, snow, sleet or sun-drenched — I found a new gift to unwrap. I could count on it being something different every time I went. Sometimes it would contain a surprise or two. And, as I opened this present each day, I knew it would contain exactly what I wanted.

On that corner was, of course, a street box with that day’s newspaper.

...The box scores were better.

As a boy, I clipped box scores — mostly just Yankees box scores — and pasted them into a spiral notebook, one for each season. I would also clip the standings and jot little notes in the margins about the schedule ahead (“Need to win in LA!”) or hitting streaks (“Kevin Maas homers again!”). My diligent clipping lost its zeal each season as the Yankees faded from the race, and it was rare that I clipped a box score after the standings showed they were “eliminated.”

...The newspapers that stood sentry here have retreated, surrendering the corner.

The box that opened up to a career is gone.

How The Greg Reynolds Trade Is More Interesting Than You Think

How could it possibly be more interesting?

We’ll begin with the biggie. Reynolds, of course, was selected second overall by the Rockies in 2006. He was selected right after Luke Hochevar, and right before Evan Longoria. The Rockies’ selection of Reynolds was thought to be a reach, and it took the Rays by surprise. The Rays had another plan, assuming the Rockies would take Longoria. That plan? Andrew Friedman:

We had Evan Longoria first on our board…We thought Longoria was going to go two to Colorado, and we had cut a deal with Tim Lincecum, to take three….

Reynolds’ failures were magnified because the Rockies nearly drafted Long Beach State third baseman Evan Longoria before turning to the Stanford pitcher. At the time, the Rockies felt starting pitching was more of a priority with Garrett Atkins and [Ian] Stewart both in the fold.

Kevin Goldstein: Rockies Top 11 Prospects

System In 20 Words Or Less: There’s a good combination of near big league-ready talent and youngsters to dream on.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B
2. Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Wilin Rosario, C
4. Chad Bettis, RHP
5. Tim Wheeler, OF
Three-Star Prospects
6. Tyler Matzek, RHP
7. Rosell Herrera, SS/3B
8. Trevor Story, SS
9. Josh Rutledge, SS
10. Tyler Anderson, LHP
11. Kent Matthes, OF

Nine More:
12. Charlie Blackmon, OF: He reached the majors and got hurt. Scouts wobble between him being a good fourth outfielder and second-division starter.
13. Christian Adames, SS: He has the potential for well above-average defense, but will he hit enough?
14. Edwar Cabrera, LHP: He put up incredible numbers thanks to an outstanding changeup, but he’s a bit of a trick pitcher.
15. Kyle Parker, OF: This first-round pick didn’t mash at Low-A, especially away from Asheville.
16. Christian Friedrich, LHP: His dominance in 2009 is in the rearview mirror with no great explanation for his decline.
17. Corey Dickerson, OF: Last year’s sleeper slugged 32 home runs, but he also had baseball’s most extreme splits; he had a .354/.417/.844 line at home, and .193/.280/.363 mark on the road.
18. DJ LeMahieu, INF: This future utility player offers some hitting skills and positional flexibility.
19. Will Swanner, C: He’s a catcher with plus power who needs to improve behind the plate.
20. Rafael Ortega, OF: Ortega is an athletic center fielder with tools in a small package, but his approach is a mess.

Krieger: Only fair to give Rockies some props in Hall of Fame voting

Including the first vote for Vinny Castilla-.260 hitter…no matter how you look at it!

The Rockies and the steroid abusers have one thing in common — baseball traditionalists, most of them back East, don’t believe the numbers of either group are legitimate.

This is not a particularly contentious issue with respect to the Rocks on the ballot because none is a threat to be the first member of the Colorado franchise enshrined at Cooperstown — at least, not yet.

...Indeed, Ellis Burks got only two votes before being dismissed from further consideration, an unremarkable outcome until you consider how closely his career numbers resemble those of Bernie Williams?, the former Yankee who makes his ballot debut this year. Williams isn’t likely to be elected, but you can bet he’ll be on the ballot longer than Burks was.

...Anyway, in the year before the great accounting, I’m voting for Bagwell, Walker, Barry Larkin?, Jack Morris?, Tim Raines? and Alan Trammell? on merit. I’m voting for Castilla because I don’t believe he deserves to be knocked off the ballot after one year, as Bichette and Galarraga were.

Purists may not like that rationale, but that’s OK. Considering the national bias against Rocky Mountain baseball, a little bias for it seems only sporting.

Yahoo: Denver Broncos Have Found a ‘Moneyball’ Player in QB Tim Tebow: Fan View

Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow has been one of the most fascinating stories in the National Football League (NFL) this season. His success has been surprising and strangely similar to the 2011 baseball movie Moneyball.

Moneyball is based on a true story about the Oakland Athletics baseball team. In 2002, Athletics General Manager Billy Beane struggled to assemble a competitive team. Without the payroll to sign high-priced homerun hitters, Beane turned to undervalued and overlooked statistics. He believed that on-base percentage and slugging percentage could be better statistical indicators for success in baseball. Beane boldly signed no-name players that met these criteria. The results were astounding. Rent the movie and see for yourself.

Tebow is the NFL version of a moneyball player. He has been criticized for his lack of accuracy, poor passing mechanics and horrendous footwork. He does not throw for yardage like Peyton Manning or touchdowns like Tom Brady. But Tebow wins. He may change the way NFL coaches view the quarterback position.

An article by Kerry J. Byrne at SI.com offers an explanation as to why Tebow is winning. In the article, Byrne shows that Tebow is actually outplaying opposing quarterbacks without compiling traditional passing numbers. Like the moneyball players in baseball, Tebow has excelled in undervalued statistics. He protects the ball better and finds the end zone more often than any quarterback in the game.

Like the players in Moneyball, Tebow is changing the game. How far can Tebow and the Broncos go? We will soon find out. By the time the skeptics recognize what Tebow is doing, he may be wearing a Super Bowl ring.