Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Ryan Cook Newsbeat

Friday, August 01, 2014

Neyer: The Jim Johnson Gambit fails

Gambit always fails.

Last winter, Matt Murphy noticed that a bunch of teams were signing veteran closers to good-sized contracts, even though the clubs already had impressive young closers-in-waiting. Was this merely fealty to Proven Closers run rampant? Or was something else going on?

Murphy focused on the A’s and found something else. Something really interesting. Murphy found that paying a veteran now means saving millions of dollars later, because your impressive young closers-in-waiting, if kept in setup roles for an extra season or two, won’t make as much money in the arbitration process. Because the arbitration is skewed, however ridiculously, toward saves.

Running the numbers, Murphy figured the A’s would save roughly $7 million on closer-in-waiting Ryan Cook’s salaries during his arbitration years, merely by keeping him out of the closer role in 2014. They’re paying [Jim] Johnson $10 million this season. But $10 million minus $7 million equals $3 million ... or Johnson’s effective cost in 2014…

I like the theory. But relief pitchers, leaving aside the elite, might just be too unstable for testing a theory that might cost you $10 million. Not to mention a few critical victories.

The District Attorney Posted: August 01, 2014 at 03:35 PM | 12 comment(s)
  Beats: jim johnson, rob neyer, ryan cook, sean doolittle, strategy

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSource: Tomas agrees to six-year deal with D-backs | MLB.com
(22 - 4:49pm, Nov 27)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(85 - 4:43pm, Nov 27)
Last: Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge

NewsblogOT:  Soccer (the Round, True Football), November 2014
(543 - 4:38pm, Nov 27)
Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

Newsblog[Cricketer NOT baseball player] Phil Hughes dies after “pitch” to the head
(9 - 4:35pm, Nov 27)
Last: Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame)

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1163 - 4:32pm, Nov 27)
Last: The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB)

NewsblogDave Cameron: A proposed three-way swap for Red Sox, Mariners, Nationals
(43 - 4:12pm, Nov 27)
Last: Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(5039 - 4:12pm, Nov 27)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogSandy Alderson says Mets can move quickly if a shortstop becomes available - NY Daily News
(34 - 4:05pm, Nov 27)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogJon Lester has plenty of options in addition to Red Sox - Sports - The Boston Globe
(9 - 3:56pm, Nov 27)
Last: Digit

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8712 - 2:51pm, Nov 27)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogNotable Players Available In The Rule 5 Draft - BaseballAmerica.com
(10 - 1:34pm, Nov 27)
Last: Dock Ellis on Acid

NewsblogWhat's cooking? MLB shares Turkey Day recipes | MLB.com
(3 - 1:20pm, Nov 27)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogBoston Red Sox prove (once again) that competitive balance in baseball will never exist | cleveland.com
(34 - 12:32pm, Nov 27)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

Hall of Merit2015 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(56 - 11:56am, Nov 27)
Last: Patrick W

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(1140 - 7:27am, Nov 27)
Last: GregD

Page rendered in 0.7394 seconds
47 querie(s) executed